ZOZO HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The ZOZO Championship

October 17, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.The PGA Tour heads overseas this week to Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Japan which has been the annual host of the ZOZO Championship. We once again are equipped with a shortened field of only 78 players in a no cut event. 2023 will mark the 4th time the ZOZO has been hosted in Japan and they we're fortunate to see prolific early winners when Tiger won in 2019 and Japanese icon Hideki Matsuyama hoisted the trophy in 2021 after a year hiatus for Covid. Keegan Bradley is your defending champion and he is in the field this week alongside Hideki and a strong Fall swing field to battle it out in the early morning hours.Here is your link to the Rundown with a comprehensive course preview this week.In the meantime, here are my cliffnotes and things to keep in mind:

  • Parkland style, shorter length par 70 that has several doglegs protected by dense forest and trees bordering the fairways.

  • 5 Par 3's on the scorecard this week as the 18 is made of a composite of holes, each of varying length and difficulty.

  • The par 4's are made up of 5 short and rather easy holes, and the other 5 are extremely hard in terms of difficulty and all measure over 486 total yards.

  • The course itself features dual greens, which is a traditional aspect of Japanese style golf courses. That said, only one hole will have the option in play to change up greens each day, the 4th hole.

  • Driving distance, somewhat surprisingly, has been the most important aspect of a players game relative to the average PGA Tour course according to Datagolf.

  • The rough is not a problem, hence the GIR rates being tour average while the driving accuracy numbers are low, but beware a big miss off the tee as you will end up in the woodwork.

  • The bent grass greens average around 5500 square feet and insanely pure. They have some undulation, and they run on the average to slow side in terms of speed.

  • Rory said, "The greens are so pure, and it sort of reminds me a little bit of the course we play in Mexico, Chapultapec. Just sort of the tree-lined and doglegs and having to sort of cut off corners and stuff, but I like it.”

  • SG: Around the Green and Bunker play should be considered this week in models. Don't go crazy. It's not a major championship, but it counts for something here.

  • DataGolf Optimal DK Lineup: Xander, Min Woo, Theegala, Champ, KH Lee, Nakajima

Here is the radar plot from DataGolf :

Here is the Approach Shot distribution from DG:

No shotlink data, sad.

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1. Strokes Gained T2G Leaders weighted to field strength Last 24 rounds  : 1. Morikawa  2. Scott  3. Hideki  4. Xander  5. Cole  6. Spaun  7. Davis  8. Im  9. Theegala  10. Detry2. Top 10 in Opportunities Gained on courses under 7200 yards L24 Rounds : 1. Smalley  2. Reavie  3. Roy  4. Griffin  5. Tom Kim  6. Hoffman  7. EVR  8. List  9. M. Kim  10. Si Woo Kim3. Top 10 in Strokes Gained Total at Accordia Narashino :  1. Buckley  2. Hoge  3. Champ  4. Griffin  5. List  6. Hahn  7. Schenk  8. Ryder  9. Hossler  10. Rodgers4. Leaders in Rounds Gained % Putting on Bent Grass Greens L50 Rounds:  1. Lower  2. Bex  3. Noren  4. Hojgaard  5. Poston  6. Hossler  7. Hadley  8. Malnati  9. Werenski  10. Putnam5. Par 3 scoring Average Leaders over the last 36 rounds : 1. Cole  2. Schenk  3. Hubbard  4. Poston  5. Knox  6. Kuest  7. Young  8. Hojgaard  9. Novak  10. Griffin6. Top 10 in Strokes Gained Ballstriking with difficult to hit fairways: 1. List  2. Davis  3. Smalley  4. Rai  5. Aberg  6. Riley  7. Tom Kim  8. Streelman  9. Stevens  10. Buckley7. Data Golf Top 10 in DFS Value based on a function of projected points and salary: 1. Min Woo Lee  2. Xander  3. Theegala  4. KH Lee  5. Riley  6. Nakajima  7. Schenk  8. Kitayama  9. Hodges  10. Stevens8. Top 10 in Data Golf Positive Course History vs. Expectation: 1. Nakajima  2. Buckely  3. Champ  4. Theegala  5. Bradley  6. Matsuyama  7. moore  8. Kodaira  9. Ryder  10. Hossler9. Leaders in Bogey Avoidance on difficult courses over last 24 rounds:  1. Morikawa  2. Davis  3. Hossler  4. Svensson  5. Rai  6. Theegala  7. Dahmen  8. Bhatia  9. Noren  10. Spaun10. Top 10 in Fantasy Points Gained over the field last 40 rounds played: 1. Scott  2. Xander  3. Min Woo  4. Morikawa  5. Fowler  6. Davis  7. Cole  8. Schenk  9. Hojgaard  10. Horikawa

I like these a good bit. Schenk's played well here all 3 years and does well in round 1. I think he was shaking the rust off a tad. 4 birdies seems very doable.Grillo's approach play has been off his last few tournaments and he's never been good around the grain (which he'll need to save pars). Worst case we get a push on that 2 bogey number.

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