The Crescendo Begins

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

We've arrived at the ZOZO Championship, where the real crescendo into the Masters officially begins. For a decent chunk of the field, this will be the last time we see them until the final major of the year. The only 'top' guys that have committed to the Houston Open (final event before the Masters) are DJ, Brooks, Day, Fowler, & Finau. I'm sure there will be a handful of others, but for about 70% of these guys, the final tune-up happens here. From the player's perspective, it's kind of unfortunate because the course fits between Sherwood and ANGC really couldn't be further apart.  As you'll see below, Sherwood is a no doubt accuracy course, which makes sense given it's going to play EXTREMELY short at just over 7000 yards & a par 72. By my count, going off the average driving distance in the field (about 295 yards), the players will have about 7 approach shots from 200+ yards, and the other 11 approach shots will all be between a sand wedge & 8 iron. The last professional event played here was the Champions Tour in 2019. Colin Montgomerie won with a score of -14 (over 3 rounds), and most of the top finisher hit 75% + of their greens in reg from the same tees that the PGA will be playing this week. So long story short, I expect a ton of birdies, very few bogeys, lots of greens & fairways hit, and the winner to be around 25 under. 

(Imagine from DataGolf) Like we mentioned above, we get a no doubt accuracy course this week. Sherwood is fairly tree-lined so it wouldn't surprise me for this to play as a less than driver course given how short it is. Monty fired a 63 last year in the final round of the Champions Tour event only averaging 271 yards off the tee, I fully expect to see someone flirt with a 59 at some point.   

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Morikawa vs. Matsuyama

Morikawa -118 vs. Matsuyama +101

The head to head price shouldn't be that surprising since Morikawa is $500 more expensive than Hideki this week, but I wanted to break this two down because I suspect both will be popular & see if there's an edge one way or the other. Hideki continues to be all over the map with his game. Here are his ball-striking numbers dating back to the Workday: +8.3, (-4.1), +4.4, (-0.5), +1.6, +2.6, +1.9, +10.6, (-1.9), +0.8.....yea, literally all.over.the.place. His short game has been equally volatile, alternating between elite & god awful almost every other start. The good news is that we love volatility in our little DFS game, so keep an eye on his ownership as we head into Wednesday. Morikawa is coming off his best T2G effort since his win at the PGA. He understandably played some pretty uninspired golf post 1st major win but has slowly regained form as we head into Augusta. Last week was his highest strokes gained approach numbers since his win at the Workday, & given he's lost strokes putting 3 out of the last 4 weeks there's a nice bounce-back opportunity given his positive bent grass splits. To boot, over the last 50 rounds, Morikawa ranks 3rd in the field in fairways gained, something that should be extremely important this week. 

MATCHUP 2

Simpson vs. Hatton

Simpson -128 vs. Hatton +109

Some DFS value here as Webb is the -128 favorite yet is $300 cheaper than Hatton. Given how short the course is & the demand for accuracy & elite putting, I would be pretty surprised if Webber is not the highest owned player this week. So let me give you the contrarian case since I'm sure you'll see the bull case for him everywhere else. Since the Northern Trust, his ball-striking has been good, not great. (+2.2, +1.5, -1.6, +2.1).  His around the green game has been elite the last 2 events, gaining a combined 8.9 strokes...BUT, that should be limited when we expect these guys to hit a very high percentage of their greens in reg. He's an elite putter on every surface, so no real bentgrass edge, but in 3 of the last 4 full-field events he's played in he's gained over 4 strokes putting, a number that is very hard to sustain. Hatton comes in much hotter with his ball-striking, having gained 12.4 shots JUST at the CJ Cup (way more than Webb has gained his last 4 events combined). Unlike Webb, Hatton has actually lost strokes around the green in 3 straight, which should be limited because we again expect less missed greens, so fewer chances to have to use your chipping/pitching. Though not as elite a putter as Webb, Hatton certainly holds his own having gained strokes in 3 straight events. Webb certainly has the higher floor, but I would argue that Hatton's ball-striking gives him the higher ceiling this week. 

MATCHUP 3

Todd vs. Harman

Todd -107 vs. Harman -109

If the course is going to play as we suspect, I wanted to highlight these two Georgia Bulldogs who should fit the bill. Harman has been trending in the right direction, gaining strokes both off the tee & on approach shots for 3 straight events. He's historically been elite around the greens but has actually lost strokes in that category in 3 straight (had previously gained strokes around the green in 11 straight). He's always been an elite putter but seems to have made a change for the better. Since the 3M he's gained at least 2 strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 events. Once I dug a little deeper on the Todd Father, I'm not quite as bullish as I was, but there are still things to like. First, he's #1 in the field in fairways gained, second, he's #2 in the field in strokes gained putting on bentgrass the last 50 rounds and is gaining an unreal 3.8 strokes per event his last 10 weeks. The downside? He's lost strokes tee to green in 6 straight events, looking particularly lost last week as he was -5 strokes off the tee and -2.5 strokes on approach shots. Of course, if we learned anything from the 2019 Fall swing, it's play the Todd Father on short, easy courses. 

Other interesting lines:Fitz -143 vs. Watson +122Tiger -114 vs. Wolff -102Scott -108 vs. Fleetwood -108Berger -115 vs. English -101Scheffler -117 vs. Henley +100Matsuyama -117 vs. Finau +100 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 19th in the field in ball striking

• Over his last 3 events, he's gained 19.9 strokes putting, an average of 6.6 per event. His career average is 1 stroke per event. 

• Over his last 7! events, he's gained a COMBINED TOTAL of 11.2 strokes ball striking, or 1.6 per event

• He loses almost a full stroke against his baseline on easy courses

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's 36th in the field in total strokes gained on short courses

• He's a head to head underdog against some $200 cheaper than him

• This is his highest DFS salary ever

• In 4 of his last 6 starts, he's hit less than 45% of his fairways

• According to the 15th Club, over his last 3 starts, he's made 92.6% of his putts between 4-8 feet...the tour average is 68.4%

• Also according to the 15th Club, over his last 3 starts, he's making 2.33 putts per round over 10 feet, the tour average is 1.62

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 47th in the field in fairways gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 31st in the field in opps gained

At 15.3% Calculated Ownership on Fantasy National (10th highest, though have seen him as high as 3rd elsewhere), Xander Schauffele, your the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Wearing Carhartt gear is wild. Are you a student? A hipster? A licensed forklift operator? No one knows!

Snoring is basically bragging about being asleep, so loudly, that it stops other people from sleeping. It's like lying there screaming, 'I'M HAVING A LOVELY SLEEP!'

Whoever created the tradition of not seeing the bride in the wedding dress beforehand saved countless husbands everywhere from hours of dress shopping and will forever be a hero to all men.

Being in the podcast game has made me realize that the ability to tolerate the sound of your own voice is probably the highest form of self-acceptance

It must suck to be an air conditioner repairman. You spend your day working in buildings that have no air conditioning. When it's fixed and finally cool, you leave. 

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the ZOZO @ Sherwood this week in Cali. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!