This Week's Tour Stop The ZoZo Championship 2019 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.As of Wednesday afternoon, here's the weather forecast...Thursday - 70 degrees / Dry / Winds 12-14mph w/ gusts up to 17-20mphFriday - Complete washout. 70 degrees / Rain all day / Winds 17-20mph w/ gusts up to 30-40mphSaturday - 70 degrees / No rain / Wind is mild w/ potential gusts up to 14mphAnd, for more context on the course and conditions, here's an exact text message we got from a Caddie after the Wednesday ProAm..."Hey Dave. Just finished the proam. Feel like the guys that drive it good this week will play well. Course is narrow and playing long. Chipping off the zoysia grass around the greens should play easier for everyone and the greens are good. No real advantages for those guys. Weather outlook isn’t good. Heavy rains on Friday"So, with this information...what do we do now? Clearly, the players will face some wind this week for at least the first 2 days. If our caddie friend said it's playing long on Wednesday BEFORE all the rain coming on Friday...then it's really going to play long after that. He's basically telling us that the conditions on and around the green are so pure, even Lucas Glover can't fuck it up...so there goes your need to really weigh premier short game guys. That puts the premium on getting it in the fairway (which are tight), being as long as possible since the course will be soft AF, and being comfortable in the wind. I'm again foregoing the FRL bets this week given the 2 hour tee time and lack of weather advantage. It's also lame to bet the shorter odds guys given the no cut, high level of unknown and variability with the new track and weather forecast. Let's load up on tickets we would actually get excited (possibly a chub) about winning on Sunday!

Through 6 Weeks: Spent $300 / Won $750 / Up 45 units

Outright WinnerHadwin (50/1)_$8, Conners (60/1)_$8, Putnam (66/1)_$6, Poulter (66/1)_$6, Grillo (66/1)_$6, Chez (70/1)_$5, Kokrak (90/1)_$5, Dahmen (160/1)_$3, Long (250/1)_$3

Every player listed here arrives in good form and having played recently to this week with the exception of Kokrak who we last saw at The Shriners at T63. When I run a model (which I rarely rely on & even more so hate saying the words, "run a model") that considers long term bentgrass putters, short and long term fairways gained, and short term approach play...Grillo is #1 overall, Hadwin #3, Chez #4, Putnam #11, Conners #16, Poulter #27, Long #28, Dahmen #33, and Kokrak #42. I like having a handful of these mid range tickets to sweat. Let's have a sweat, eh boys!

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 100% Deposit Bonus They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

 "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Matthew Fitzpatrick - $9,000 – It seems like every week in this write up I end up pegging a guy that scares the hell out of me, but Fitzy fits the bill this week and if you want to have a chance at the big money you’re gonna have to just be uncomfortable sometimes and see what happens. Matthew is currently projected at about 6% ownership in tournaments and has really played well over the last few weeks on the Euro Tour culminating with a 2nd place finish just a couple weeks ago at the Italian Open. He’s checking all the boxes as well this week when you look at his stats for Ball Striking, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Proximity where he is top 20 in the field in all four. Again, he may give you an upset stomach but just take some Imodium and keep a toilet close by while you ride the Fitzy train. Andrew Putnam - $7,400 – Once again Andrew is just sliding under the radar into another event in good form (T20 last week and T18 at the Shriners) and this course is a great fit for his game. Putnam is an accurate driver of the golf ball and typically a good ball striker who’s also ranked 15th in the field in Strokes Gained Approach. The real kicker though with Andrew is his putting as he ranks 7th in the field in Strokes Gained Putting on bent over his last 100 rounds. With a projected ownership of around 10%, he should make a great low priced option for your DraftKings tournament lineups.  Dylan Frittelli - $6,700 – So you’re going to let me play a recent tour winner that is in good form at less than 10% ownership for the low low price of $6,700 on DraftKings? Sure I’ll gladly take that all day long. I know this is a pretty damn good field but I think this was a gift price on Mr. Frittelli this week and he will be a staple in several of my tournament lineups. I’ve already mentioned his stellar play recently, but he’s also checking boxes in Ball Striking, Strokes Gained Approach, Scrambling, and Greens in Regulation. If you’re playing cash this week I’m even comfortable using Dylan here as well if you’re in need of a cheap play to round out your lineups. Bome.

 "Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

With Halloween around the corner...I’m curious what costume our CB readers would recommend for DB and myself? Reply with your response or tweet us @tour_junkiesSo when I’m making my boys lunches in the morning, one of the staples is usually a fruit roll up. I f’in loved fruit roll ups as a kid, but my parents would never buy them. I guess they thought they were like candy or something but it was a special occasion when we did actually had them. Anyway, I will eat almost any snack in the house we’ve bought for the kids. I mean you name it, goldfish, Cheetos, anything, but for some damn reason I have it in my head that the fruit roll ups are off limits. It’s like they are only for humans under the age of 12 and I’m no longer allowed to eat them. Damnit. It’s extremely frustrating. Midday naps should be mandatory in the office environment. Or if not mandatory, at least not frowned upon. If you walk by Bob from accountings cubicle and he’s passed out on his desk or floor taking his nap he shouldn’t be laughed at, but rather thought of as normal as if he were typing away on a spreadsheet.  If I could ban a Halloween candy from the country and anyone who distributed it would immediately be imprisoned for a maximum of 10 days forced to eat this candy the entire time, it would be Dots. Dots are such a tease. They look like they are going to be fantastic but then you actually eat one and it’s crap. #BanDots That’s all I got this week folks. Good luck with the ZoZo Championships.

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years last 50 rounds:

1. Rory 2. JT 3. Casy 4. Scott 5. Matsuyama 6. Hovland 7. Woods 8. Schauffele 9. Fleetwood 10. Conners

2. 

GIR Leaders the last calendar year: 

1. Hovland 2. Conners 3. Morikawa 4. Fleetwood 5. Casey 6. Matsuyama 7. Streelman 8. Niemann 9. Kokrak 10. Horschel

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

 1. Na 2. Spieth 3. Kisner 4. Horschel 5. Perez 6. Clark 7. Lowry 8. Leishman 9. Hadwin 10. Reed

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ course lengths of less than 7200 yards, bent greens, and par 70's...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.Leishman 2. Piercy 3. Day 4. Watson 5. Garcia 6. CH3 7. Palmer 8. Finau 9. Niemann 10. Bradley

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on par 70's that are 7200 yards or less your top 10 are:

1. Casey 2. JT 3. Garcia 4. Reavie 5. Horschel 6. McIIroy 7. Grill 8. Palmer 9. Conners 10. CH3

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.Grillo 2. Hadwin 3. Matsuyama 4. Finau 5. Hovland 6. Fleetwood 7. Conners 8. JT 9. Casey 10. CH3

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Accordia , so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. JT 2. Niemann 3. McIIroy 4. Fleetwood 5. Woods 6. Schauffele 7. Reed 8. Hovland 9. Casey 10. Spieth

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Dahmen 2.Woods 3. Hovland 4. Scott 5. Casey 6. Hadwin 7. CT Pan 8. HV3 9. Taylor 10. McIIroy

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. Hovland 3. Long 4. Reavie 5. Niemann 6. Wolff 7. Oost 8. Conners 9. Finau 10. Piercy

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Lee 2. Woods 3. CH3 4. Glover 5. Wolff 6. Poulter 7. Watson 8. Day 9. Spieth 10. McDowell

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG