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Last week the weather was absolutely perfect in Vegas! That is NOT the case this week in Japan. Round 1 is going to be a slop fest! There is rain projected all day with winds in the 20s all day. IF they play, you'll have preferred lines in effect for balls in the fairway. However, I think there's a real chance they don't even get the round in.IF that were to happen, there's a chance the guys with the late tee times don't even have to go out today. I actually think that could present a slight edge as they'd likely have to play 36 on Friday and maybe into Saturday with less wind and still get preferred lies.I'm not saying to go overboard...but if you're playing 15+ lineups...maybe stacking some guys at the very end of Thursday tee times presents the possibility of an edge.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TODAY in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 1pmET and going until...GET IN THERE! 

Cameron Young - 133 ($9,300) vs Collin Morikawa +110 ($10,200)

This is an interesting matchup here and the fact that Cameron Young opened and remains a heavy favorite shocked me! I thought I was maybe missing something so I looked at other golfers that Vegas has Young up against. Young is a heavy favorite against Viktor Hovland, Tyrell Hatton, and Tom Kim. In fact, on one market making H2H book, they made Morikawa a slight favorite at opening and within a few hours, you can see enough money coming in to flip the line in Young's favor.Both Morikawa and Young appear to be getting similar ownership ranging around 20%, however, the $900 savings you’re getting allows for a lot of nice builds.The knock on Young is that he hasn't played since the playoffs, with the exception of the President's Cup, the market making books and H2H bettors don't seem to care. Cam Young ranks top 10 in Good Drives, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Good Approach, and Birdie or Better. According to DataGolf, Cam Young has the 3rd highest odds to win this event only behind Im and Xander.

Tyrell Hatton -130 ($9,100) vs Tom Kim +100 ($9,700)

This one hurts a little bit because, like everyone else, I am a huge Tom Kim fan. It absolutely terrifies me to go against Kim because I think he is honestly just this good. I have watched him a lot recently and he just doesn’t have a weakness. The line above is where it opened. Now...since, money has come in on the Tom Kim side with Hatton now a slight favorite at -120 to -110, but still surprising that the books like him that much. Currently, Hatton is ranging around 10% where Kim is hovering over 25%. Also, if you look at Hatton’s 2022 season it has been really good! He has made 21 of 24 cuts with 7 top ten finishes. His last two events he has finished 8th and 7th on the DP World Tour. He also plays very well in no-cut events. Finally, Hatton is a favorite or even money against Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, and Hovland. He is only a dog to Cameron Young. If the books are right...I think Hatton is a very sneaky play this week!

Corey Conners -132 ($9,000) vs Tommy Fleetwood +102 ($9,200)

This matchup is more on fading Fleetwood then necessarily being on Conners (I do have a problem of always playing Conners though). Fleetwood is a dog or even money to the following players: Keegan Bradley, Tom Kim, Tyrell Hatton, Mito on 1 book, and Hovland. Fleetwood is ranging around 12-15% ownership with Conners being around 10%. Fleetwood has only played twice since July 13th due to the death of his mother. His two starts are 57th and 22nd in weaker DP World Tour events.Both Tommy Lad and Conners have had success at Accordia, but I would argue Tommy's previous starts here were on the heels of playing plenty of golf leading up to it. Give me the lower owned/lower priced and better ball striker in Conners here. Out of the 2 market making H2H books, they're only clear on Tommy Lad being a better play over Tom Hoge, and everyone else...they're not buying Tommy this week. 

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.I'd call last week's CB a slight success. Max finished 20th as the 3rd highest priced golfer, but his ownership certainly came in lower than I thought at around 14% on average. Cantlay ended up damn near 40% in some contests and Sungjae pushed 30. 

We head out to Japan for the ZoZo Championship which has hosted this event in 2019 and 2021. Due to Covid they had to move this event in 2020 to California. When I think of Japan, I think of honor, Samurai, and Hideki Matsuyama! Seeing Matsuyama’s caddie bow to the flag after they won the 2021 Masters was one of the cooler things I have seen in sports. There have been a lot of comparisons between Augusta National and Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. Another comparison is the absolute love this week's chalk bomb has had for both of these courses. 

This weeks chalk bomb has finished 14th, 1st, 13th, 32nd, and 19th in his previous five Master appearances. At the ZoZo, he finished 1st last year and 2nd in 2019. Based on this information alone, it is absolutely terrifying to write this player up as the chalk bomb and I already know DB will be texting me in disagreement.With that said, this golfer has finished 60th, 4th, MC, 68th, 35th, 11th, and 25th in his past six tournaments. He has had some back/neck issues this past year where even if he won, I am not sure he could even take a bow. Also, the past three events he has lost over 1 stroke off the tee. Videos have shown that he is trying to gain distance with his driver and has changed drivers. The last golfer I remember changing drivers was Patrick Reed and he seemed to really struggle for a period of time. Everything I am seeing is that you need to be able to have solid driving accuracy on this course in order to set up your second shot into these small greens. I don’t trust the driver enough this week in order to take on the 25% ownership projections. It seems like a lot of DK players are going here strictly because of the previous results and FOMO. 

In the H2H market, this golfer is a heavy dog to both Sungjae Im and Xander Schauffele who have similar ownership. This is a terrifying fade, however, if I am wrong I will gladly take a bow and eat crow on this one.

At 25+% (3rd highest) projected ownership, Hideki Matsuyama,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

A good argument could be made that a bagel is technically a noodle. All poopoo times are peepee times but not all peepee times are poopoo times.I feel like we waste a lot of ink in this world by losing pens. In an electric vehicle do you still call the pedal a gas pedal? Or is it the electric pedal? Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the ZoZo Championship in Japan this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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