ZOZO 21 Chalk Bomb

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With a short field, we typically don't see much of a wave advantage. They're going off from 830am to 1042am on split tees, so no real split at all. The course could get some rain to soften things up early Friday morning, and they'll likely have lift, clean and place in effect. A number of players yesterday discussed the cooler temps and heavy air making the course play longer. At this point, we don't see any reason to stack certain tee times or value one player over another based on weather.  

List +111 vs. E. Van Rooyan -130

It was tough to find meaningful lines this week, so I went with my darling Luke List against a guy I thought could be an interesting GPP pivot in EVR. Luke is projected around 15-18% in terms of ownership compared to EVR's 10-13%, yet EVR is a pretty big favorite in the H2H. Actually, when the line opened EVR was -146 to Luke at +120. So, the books loved EVR from the jump, but the money seems to be coming in on Luke. You do save $1600 in salary with Luke on DK though. Neither have played the ZOZO before, but both come in showing some form. EVR killed it in the playoffs. EVR is a far better putter in general and on bent grass, but Luke has been much better around the greens. Both hit it plenty far and have solid ball striking numbers. Over the last 24 rounds, EVR is 1st in DK Points Scored compare to Luke at 41st. 

T. Kanaya -105 vs. Hadley -126

Takumi Kanaya spent 55 weeks as the world #1 amatuer coming out of Japan. The 23 year old has serious game. He's ranked 76th in the OWGR today. He has 4 victories on the Japan Tour and finished T41 at the ZOZO last year in Vegas. He's played in 3 majors and MC'd all 3 times. He also MC'd in 2 other PGA TOUR starts at Memorial and the Sony. We find Kanaya an underdog in his only H2H matchup against the bony, Chesson Hadley. We also find Kanaya $300 more expensive than Hadley on DK with projected ownership anywhere from 9-14% based on a few sites compared to Hadley's 3%...Hmmm...I mean, Hadley isn't a fun name to click, and I'm not saying to pick him. But, this is an example of touts educating the masses on a "no name" and potentially trying to get cute with playing them. Kanaya is a really good player, and he could be a serious name to know in the coming years, but let's see him do more against the big boys than what he's done so far before we put him in 10 to 12% of our lineups.

Xander -129 vs. Morikawa +111

The 2 big guns at the top of DK and the betting board are where a lot of GPP lineup decisions start. Do you play one or the other, or do you fade them both and hope? Between the 2 of them, their implied odds across most books fall between 17-22% in terms of winning this event. Xander is a favorite in all of his H2H matchups with Morikawa only being a dog to the X Man in his matchups. Both are making that charter flight from Vegas to Tokyo after competing last week. Xander spoke in his presser about the rigors of travel and resting his body. Both have ties to Japan and have played in Japan plenty. These are the 2 most popular projected names in the field at around 22-25%. I'd take Morikawa at plus money over Xander every time in this H2H given the way he played over the weekend in Vegas, but I'm leaning towards fading both of them in GPPs to roll out Willy Z and Hideki instead.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

After picking the runner up the last 2 weeks...let's see if we can keep the streak alive! Morikawa was sucking prior to Saturday. He said in his post round presser on Sunday that he "found a little something mid round on Saturday"...Well...I'd say so! Anyway, on to this week.I like me some Jhonattan Vegas as much as the next guy, and I know this field is basically fecal matter, but I REFUSE to play a 20% owned J Vegas! He's projected anywhere from 17-20% across multiple sites. He's $8900 on DraftKings. He's a plus money underdog in all 5 of his H2H matchups, and he's never played the ZOZO before.Plus, he's coming over from Vegas on the charter trying to get adjusted physically and to a course he's never seen before that isn't exactly a bomber's paradise. He's a horrible putter, and he's usually below average around the greens. He quietly had a pretty solid year on the PGA TOUR starting in about Febuary, but I just can't bring myself to roster him at that ownership and price, even in this field. With names and arguably equal upside like, Keegan, McNealy, Grillo, Pan, KH Lee, Ortiz, Hoffman and Schenk all priced around him and lower projected ownership... J-Honattan Vegas...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Continuing the theme of last week, here’s another Halloween thought I had. How do we feel about Candy Corn? It seems to be a very divisive candy. I actually like candy corn. It’s weird though because if it’s sitting out, I will eat it, but there’s no way in hell I’m gonna just go buy a bag of candy corn over other candy options.I’ve had a beard now for well over a year and I still wonder if I should be washing my face with shampoo or not.Does anyone ever wonder what the hell a snail is actually trying to do?My dog likes to follow me into the bathroom all the time. I wonder if he thinks that’s just how it’s supposed to work since I do that to him when he goes.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the ZoZo Championship in the land of Japan. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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