Wyndham Championship Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Wyndham Championship Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

July 31, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Wyndham Championship @ Sedgefield 

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The Last Stop Before the Playoffs

I thought it was funny after listening (& downloading!) the pod when DB made the point of Brooks kind of screwing the whole Wyndham rewards top 10 thing. I'm sure it was some corporate genius that tried to craft this big master plan to get more big name players to play in the Wyndham tournament (currently Webb is the highest ranked player at #17 in the world....& he was always going to play as a Greensboro, NC native & former winner). But ole 'Big Balls, Home wreakin' Brooks just came in, wins the WGC St. Jude, makes it literally impossible for anyone to catch him, & ruined everything (just like all my DraftKings lineups the last 8 majors)...so Wyndham corporate guy that probably doesn't have a job anymore, I kind of feel your pain. One interesting case though is Matt Kuchar. He's literally 2! points behind Rory for 2nd place, a difference of $300k. All Kuchar would have to do is make the cut which is basically guaranteed since that's all he's done his entire career, but clearly it's not about the money for BOOOOOOchar. #TheIrony #HowRich

Anyways about the course this week: It's right down the road from me & I've had the pleasure of playing it several times the past couple years. It's a classic Donald Ross design, as he always provides you a great mix of club usage, penal & risk/reward holes, it's fairly 'easy' tee to green (especially for tour pros) but has complicated green structures with tons of slope. The course is in a neighborhood so it's heavily tree lined, and as long as you don't blast it OB you almost always have a recovery shot (the rough is non-existent). It's a no doubt accuracy course and for these guys it's also a less than driver course. There's water on about half the holes but for these guys it really only comes into play on maybe 2 of them. I will say though don't let the accuracy part fool you into thinking that off the tee doesn't matter because being on the correct side/angle of the fairway really helps you score at this course. Last year of the top 34 players, only 3 lost strokes off the tee. I highly encore you to look at total driving when building lineups this week. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Casey vs. Snedeker 

I don't think it's surprising to see that Casey is favored over Snedeker, but I was surprised to see how big of a favorite he is. It seems like we haven't heard a peep out of Casey since his win at the Valspar, but he's actually been his usual steady self for the majority of the season with a couple putting blimps covering up really great ball striking. Since the Masters he's gained at least 4.4 strokes tee to green in every event sans the Open. The last time he played here (2015) he hit 82% of his greens & finished 3rd, the only real knock being he does have a slightly negative bermuda putting split. Sneds def has the history here w/ 3 top 10's his last 4 tries, and is always one of the best bermuda putters in the world. The larger concern is his current ball striking as he's lost strokes off the tee in 4 out of his last 5, and has lost strokes on approach in 3 of his last 7.  The bull case outside of the history is that he lost 3.4 strokes putting last week (on bermuda) and should bounce back.

MATCHUP 2

Sabbatini vs. Frittelli

Sabbatini might be my favorite value this week (esp on the 'other' DFS site). Rory has played here the last 2 years and has been elite tee to green hitting no less than 75% of his greens in reg. He's also had a career resurgence of sorts w/ 4 top 10's and only 1 missed cut. He's gained at least 4.6 strokes tee to green on the field in 9 of his last 11 events, & had a season high in strokes gained off the tee at the Open 2 weeks ago. He's got a nice positive bermuda putting split to boot and is never highly owned. Frittelli is an interesting case because he's a 'tee to green' guy, but lost strokes on approach in his win at the John Deere which is really hard to do. Then you see he got up & down 94% of the time he missed the greens which he may go his entire career & never repeat that feat. 

MATCHUP 3

Reed vs. Hovland

While Reed's odds to win are lower, the books really like him in the head to head markets. Sadly I don't think we can refer to him as 'Fatrick' anymore, & it seems to have had an equally positive impact on his golf game. Dating back to the US Open, he's gained at least 6.2 strokes tee to green in every event sans one, with both his driving & approach trending in the right direction. He's generally always been known as a good putter & it's really been the only thing that's held him back so far as he's lost strokes in 3 straight events & 8 of his last 11 overall. Hovland is going to win on tour, it's just a matter of time. I know we've talked about it in past chalk bomb's but his driving and approach game is already one of the best in the world....like he's already just as good as Hideki. Unfortunately he's also just as bad of a putter as Hideki and is definitely worse than Hideki around the greens. He's played in 7 strokes gained events so far, and lost strokes putting in 6 of them, ditto for his around the green game. All it takes for him is to gain 1-2 strokes putting to win an event, but good luck predicting when that will come. 

MATCHUP 4

Wolff vs. Noren

I'm trying to decide if Noren being the favorite over Wolff is just the books being that bullish on Noren or bearish on Wolff. Talk about a lost year, Noren went from basically the best player on the Euro tour to this year having zero top 10 finishes doing just enough to make the cut most weeks and nothing else. Yes he's played well the last 2 events, but last week he reverted right back to losing 3.2 strokes on approach shots which has been his biggest bugaboo all year. Noren does own very positive bermuda putting splits though. After I looked at it harder I honestly think this line is more so just bearish on Wolff. I'll preface this by saying again that we have basically 5 events of data on Wolff but all we can go by is what we have. For the bomber he is, he's been pretty wild off the tee gaining a combined 1/2 stroke his last two events off the tee. His strokes gained approach at the 3M sure seems like the outlier right now at 9.5 strokes gained when his 2nd best event is 1.8 strokes gained. He absolutely has a better short game than his teammate Viktor, but there's little doubt that Viktor is vastly better tee to green. 

Other interesting lines:

McCarthy -130 over Redman

Ancer -125 over Im

Kokrak -115 over Stanley

Morikawa -140 over Matsuyama

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He's fresh off a missed cut in which he had a season low in strokes gained tee to green (-6.6)

  • He's lost strokes approach in 3 straight events & 9 of his last 12!

  • He's lost strokes off the tee in 6 of his last 11 events

  • His last 2 events he's gotten up & down 87.5% of the time....juuuuust a bit unsustainable

  • His driving accuracy has dropped in 4 straight events

  • He gains 0.14 strokes putting per round on bermuda

  • He's 99th in the field the last 50 rounds in strokes gained approach

  • He loses total strokes against his baseline on par 70's

  • He's 132nd in the field in prox for the 2 main approach shot distances

  • He's 87th in the field in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds

  • He's 104th in the field in opps gained the last 12 rounds, and 126th in birdie or better

  • He's a head to head underdog against someone $600 cheaper than him

  • His top 10 implied odds are 16.67%....so 83.33% of the time he is expected to finish outside the top 10

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at  20.1%, Sung-Jae Im, you're the Chalk Bomb!

If you're playing PGA or NFL DFS, FanShare is a MUST!Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Wyndham:

1. CT Pan 2. Snedeker 3. Horschel 4. Matsuyama 5. Gay 6. Armour 7. Simpson 8. English 9. Stefani 10. M. Thompson

2. 

Historical

 

GIR Leaders the last 5 years at Sedgefield (min 8 rounds): 

1. Armour 2. HV3 3. Thompson 4. Piercy 5. Stanley 6. CH3 7. Cink 8. Sabbatini 9. English 10. Kizzire

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

 1. Aphibarnrat 2. McCarthy 3. Gay 4. Thompson 5. Malnati 6. Wagner 7. Lindheim 8. Perez 9. Donald 10. CH3

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ easy courses, bermuda greens, and under 7200 yard courses...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.Simpson 2. Knox 3. Cook 4. CH3 5. Hadwin 6. ZJ 7. Spieth 8. Glover 9. Streelman 10. List ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on short courses with easy scoring your top 10 are:

1. Spieth 2. Stanley 3. Streelman 4. Reavie 5. Simpson 6. Walker 7. CH3 8. Glover 9. Matsuyama 10. Conners

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Morikawa 2. Conners 3. Streelman 4. Laird 5. Casey 6. Hovland 7. Taylor 8. Stanley 9. Taylor 10. Svensson

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's rated as the highest in importance at Sedgefield, so your top 10 in par 4 scoring average are:

1. Morikawa 2. Simpson 3. Niemann 4. Munoz 5. Reed 6. Hovland 7. CH3 8. Matsuyama 9. Ancer 10. Im

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Matsuyama 2. Reavie 3. Kim 4. Johnson 5. Glover 6. Svensson 7. Watney 8. Stuard 9. Casey 10. Ben An 

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Morikawa 2. Sloan 3. Hovland 4. Reed 5. Hadwin 6. Niemann 7. Conners 8. Matsuyama 9. Casey 10. Wolff

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Glover 2. Knox 3. Henley 4. Berger 5. McCarthy 6. Hadwin 7. Stanley 8. Cauley 9. ZJ 10. Casey

PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"If I was going to fight a villian from a movie, it would be Hans Gruber (Die Hard) because A. He looks exactly me B. What kind of dickhole ruins a Christmas party? C. He had absolutely no witty response to Yippie-ki-yay, motherfucker "-Patrick P. Perry

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