Wyndham Championship

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

We made it boys & girls. The last full-field event of the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season. Unlike last year though, we have some of the best storylines of the year heading into tomorrow. For 2 years now everyone has been able to keep their Tour cards, but it's time to pay the piper for a swath of players that don't have great weeks. Historically only about 3-5 guys will go from being out to being in or vice versa. The bubble boys are below:

So lots of big names in there, & several others further down. You could probably spend 8 hours trying to figure out who needs what & who's cards are actually on the line. The good news for a lot of these big names is that you can still retain status, though you just won't be 'full exempt."Anyways about the course this week: It's right down the road from me & I've had the pleasure of playing it several times the past couple of years. It's a classic Donald Ross design, as he always provides you a great mix of club usage, penal & risk/reward holes, it's fairly 'easy' tee to green (especially for tour pros) but has complicated green structures with tons of slope. Of the 18 holes, 14 of them are strategically protected by bunkers, so while I don't give it a ton of weight, I'll knock a golfer down a peg if they struggle out of the sand. The course is in a neighborhood so it's heavily tree-lined, and as long as you don't blast it OB you almost always have a recovery shot (the rough is non-existent). It's a no doubt accuracy course and for these guys, it's also a less than driver course. There's water on about half the holes but for the pros, it really only comes into play on maybe 2 of them. I will say though, don't let the accuracy part fool you into thinking that off the tee doesn't matter because being on the correct side/angle of the fairway really helps you score at this course. In 2018, of the top 34 players, only 3 lost strokes off the tee. In 2019, only one person in the top 12 lost strokes off the tee. In 2020, no one in the top 15 lost strokes off the tee. I highly encore you to look at total driving when building lineups this week.

The weather looks good for most of the week. It's rained here like every day for the last 2 months so expect some softer conditions with hot & VERY humid feeling temps. DirecTV Perry would 100% be WD'ing from this event. 

(Image courtesy of DataGolf) Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. We're back to a clear-cut accuracy course. Like we covered above, the driving accuracy is already high at Sedgefield, and the rough is generally very playable. Because of this, the GIR% is one of the highest on tour at almost 72% field average (2 years ago Poston hit over 90%, & last year Herman hit 88%). There's a pretty straightforward recipe for success this week, pound the greens (either through good driving or strong approach play), and roll the rock. Every winner sans Si Woo has gained at least 3.5 strokes putting for the week. 

Leh Go! 

MATCHUP 1

Harman vs. Henley 

Harman -133 vs. Henley +114

The UGA boys are matched up together this week & both could provide sneaky value in a very top-heavy field. Harman has lost strokes putting in 2 straight events which is obviously very uncharacteristic for him. Though he doesn't have great course history at Sedgefield, the course is tailor-made for him. In the last 3 years he's played this event he's been above field average in GIR's hit but has never had a really good putting week despite being an elite bermuda grass putter. He does his best work on easy-scoring courses and courses that are sub 7200 yards (no surprise). Of everyone 7600 & up, he ranks the highest in fairways gained the last 50 rounds. The Russ Bus has been a little more up & down than he was last year, but he's managed to still have plenty of elite ball-striking rounds & seems to have made some positive steps with the putter which gave him absolute fits last year. Over the last 50 rounds, Russ is 16th in good drives gained, and 8th in GIR's gained. Bermuda is fair & away his best putting surface, & he hit 85% of his GIR's at Sedgefield last year en route to a 9th place finish. 

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MATCHUP 2

Webb vs. Hideki

 Webb -119 vs. Hideki +102

Pretty big DFS value with Webb as he's $400 cheaper than Hideki yet the H2H favorite. For what feels like the 10th year in a row, Webb will be the highest owned player at Sedgefield. It's kind of crazy to look at his course history since 2014. In 7 tries he has 6, top 6 finishes. His LOWEST GIR% in the last 7 years is 75%, & 3 times he has topped 81%. As far as his form goes, that is a more interesting question. He's lost strokes on approach shots in 3 straight events, & lost strokes off the tee in 3 out of his last 4. When we had Paul Tesori on the pod for the US Open, he basically admitted that Webb wasn't 100% healthy & perhaps the back/neck is still bothering him. It was good to see him hit 72% of his fairways at the St. Jude last week, so hopefully, that's a positive sign for his health. Hideki is really interesting to me this week. It sucks that he's the highest-priced player, but perhaps that's going to push a bunch of people off him. His approach play has been elite all year, over the last 36 rounds he's far & away #1 in the field. Since the Masters his driving has been much better as well, gaining strokes in 5 of his last 6. He's always been elite around the greens though no one ever gives him credit for it, & he damn near won last week despite losing strokes putting. The last 3 times he's played at Sedgefield, he's hit 85%, 83%, & 78% of his GIR's....not too shabby. 

MATCHUP 3

Kokrak vs. Zalatoris

Kokrak -118 vs. Zalatoris +101

DFS value on Kokrak as he's $300 cheaper than Willy Z. Jason is one of the harder guys to peg this week. His recent form is all over the place, just take a look at his total strokes gained in the last 6 events: 3, 14.8, (-3.5), 7.5, 4.8, (-0.8)....ya, all over the place. His course history is equally interesting. In his last 5 starts at Sedgefield, he's got 2 bad results, 2 ok results, 1 good result. Though in fairness he's been above field average in GIR's hit all 5 years. For Willy Z, despite currently being the #29th ranked golfer in the world, it's win or go home week. I'm not making an outrageous claim to say Willy is already a top 20 ball-striker in the world, it's just the putter & short game that have gotten him in trouble the last calendar year. In fact, before last week he had lost strokes putting in 6 straight events, & in 5 of those, he lost at least 2.2 strokes. So the good news? Last week he changed over to a new Scotty Cameron Phantom X 11 prototype putter and gained the 2nd most strokes putting in 2021 (3.8 strokes). I think with Webb just above Willy at 10.6k, he's primed to go way under-owned. 

Other interesting lines:Pereira -115 vs. Watson -102Lebioda -111 vs. Rose -106Macintyre -138 vs. Fowler +118Ghim -165 vs.Hughes +123Armour -137 vs. List +103Todd -141 vs. Moore +121Glover -107 vs. Griffin -109ZJ -119 vs. Kizzire +102HV3 -128 vs. ZJ +110Reavie -123 vs. Kirk +105

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 3 straight events

• Over his last 24 rounds he's 38th in the field in DK points scored

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 53rd in the field in ball striking

• Over his last 10 measured events (which actually goes back to the TOC), he's averaged a mere 1.9 strokes gained T2G

• Over those same last 10 events, he's actually lost total strokes off the tee

• Over his last 24 rounds he's 132nd in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 66th in the field in fairways gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 46th in the field in par 4 scoring

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 71st in proximity from the 2 main approach shot buckets

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 53rd in the field in GIR's gained

At 24.6% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (highest) Webb Simpson, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

The sport of professional wrestling is wild. Just think about this for a second. If professional wrestling did not exist, could you come up with the idea? Could you envision the popularity of huge men in tiny bathing suits pretending to fight? Could you sell it to a promoter? 'I'm telling you Gary, millions of people will enjoy this! Gaint guys in tiny suits, and they won't really fight!'

Speaking of which, how about a job as a professional wrestling referee? That my friend is a great job. You're a referee in a sport with no rules of any kind. How do you screw that up? 

Avoidance is a male domestic instinct. Golf is the ultimate avoidance activity. 5 hours of swinging a stick at a little white ball through sand & weeds while driving drunk in a clown car through a fake park. God Bless the Scots. 

Of the many jobs in police work, I feel like I would be a good chalk outline guy. It's not too dangerous, and the criminals are long gone. I wasn't very good at art as a kid, 'Uh, listen, Pat, forget the sketches....do you think if we left the dead body right there on the sidewalk, you could manage to trace around it? Could you at least do that?' I have no idea how that helps them solve the crime. 

Men love looking at women. We think, 'We don't understand them. We better keep an eye on them.' I know I will never understand women. I know I will never be able to understand how a woman (or David) can take boiling hot wax, pour it on her upper thighs, rip the hair out by the root. And still be afraid of a spider. 

Speaking of looking at women & understanding them. We (men) can generally justify anything to look at women. 'What about a swimsuit competition?' 'Yes, women in swimsuits competing. That makes perfect sense.' The whole concept of the beauty contest itself is also crazy. Just think about it. 'You are very attractive. I challenge you.'

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Wyndham Championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!