This Week's Tour Stop Wyndham Championship @ Sedgefield 

The Last Stop Before the Playoffs

Man, the 2020 hits just keep comin! Today Augusta National announced no patrons or guest at this year's Masters, college football seems to be on life support, and Brooks Koepka has stopped winning majors (wink wink)! Here's the silver-lining though, 2021 is gonna be an all-time great. 1. No Presidental election ads (I live in a battleground state so it's extra bad already) 2. Summer Olympics! 3. College Football WITH fans (& tailgating) 4. Ryder Cup 5. March Madness 6. Full baseball season 7. UGA will be pre-season #1

Anyways about the course this week: It's right down the road from me & I've had the pleasure of playing it several times the past couple of years. It's a classic Donald Ross design, as he always provides you a great mix of club usage, penal & risk/reward holes, it's fairly 'easy' tee to green (especially for tour pros) but has complicated green structures with tons of slope. Of the 18 holes, 14 of them are strategically protected by bunkers, so while I don't give it a ton of weight, I'll knock a golfer down a peg if they struggle out of the sand. The course is in a neighborhood so it's heavily tree-lined, and as long as you don't blast it OB you almost always have a recovery shot (the rough is non-existent). It's a no doubt accuracy course and for these guys, it's also a less than driver course. There's water on about half the holes but for the pros, it really only comes into play on maybe 2 of them. I will say though don't let the accuracy part fool you into thinking that off the tee doesn't matter because being on the correct side/angle of the fairway really helps you score at this course. In 2018, of the top 34 players, only 3 lost strokes off the tee. In 2019, only one person in the top 12 lost strokes off the tee. I highly encore you to look at total driving when building lineups this week. 

Game Theory: We have for the 1st time in a while a player that is projected to be over 30% owned (Webb). I went back & looked at the last 2 years of what the results were when someone, no matter their salary, was 30%+ owned & the results of the 14 times it happened:

2-winners

1- top 10

3- top 20

1- top 30

5- 44th or worse

Now in fairness, Webb was the highest owned at this event last year & finished 2nd. But with 3 exceptions you could have faded said player & been just fine FYI. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. After one week of bombers paradise, we're back to a clear cut accuracy course (& should be the last one for serval months). Like we covered above, the driving accuracy is already high at Sedgefield, and the rough is generally very playable. Because of this, the GIR% is one of the highest on tour at almost 72% field average (last year Poston hit over 90%). There's a pretty straight forward recipe for success this week, pound the greens (either through good driving or strong approach play), and roll the rock. Every winner sans Si Woo has gained at least 3.5 strokes putting for the week. 

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

Horschel vs. English

Horschel -153 vs. English +122

LOTS of DFS value this week according to H2H pricing, starting with Harry & Billy Ho. Harry is $200 more than Billy yet finds himself with implied odds of 39.53% to beat him this week. Behind Webb, I expect these two to be the next highest owned guys so this should be a key decision for a lot of lineups. Lets start with Harry: Since the restart he's been solid almost every week. He has such an elite short game that he really doesn't have to do a ton ball striking to have a great week. He's gained strokes on approach shots, around the green, & putting in 4 straight. He has sneaky good course history here (but don't tell the people just looking at his finish positions)...every year since 2015 he's been well above field average in GIR's hit at Sedgefield, even when he wasn't playing well. The interesting thing is that even though bermuda is his best putting surface, he's lost strokes putting in exactly 50% of his rounds at Sedgefield, something I would expect to change. For Billy Ho, it's a bit more of a mixed bag as he's gained strokes off the tee & putting in all but 1 of his last 6 events, but his approach play & aground the green game has been hit or miss. Billy has sneaky history too as he's also been above field average in GIR% at Sedgefield every since year he's played here. After seeing the H2H price I was expecting to find evidence that I would like Billy more, but considering he's lost strokes tee to green in 4 of the last 6 events he's played while Harry has gained AT LEAST 2.1 strokes in 5 of his last 6. I LOVE Harry getting +122 in betting & would also prefer him in DFS. 

MATCHUP 2

Moore vs. Fleetwood

Moore -121 vs. Fleetwood -109

I honestly still can't believe that this line is real, but according to my eyes Ryan Moore, who is $2400 cheaper than Tommy Lad, is in fact the head to head favorite. So here is what we know: You pretty much pencil Ryan in for 1-2 strokes gained off the tee...for the last calendar year he's the most accurate driver of the golf ball in the entire field. Since the Travelers his irons have come around nicely, and he gained over 7 strokes on approach shots his last time out at the 3M (he finished T-12 at the Cuda but we don't get any stats since it's an oppo event). He's lost strokes around the green in 5 straight events, & has lost strokes putting in 4 of the last 6. Ryan is a former winner at Sedgefield & the course absolutely sets up for him, however, bermuda is his worst putting surface. Ole Tommy Lad is basically a complete wildcard when trying to decipher his form in 3 starts since coming back to the US. The jest is that he's broken even ball-striking all 3 events, gained strokes around the green every event, and gained strokes putting in 2 of 3 events. There's no doubt that Tommy is the more talented player overall, so it looks like a pretty easy decision, take Moore in DFS & Tommy Lad in H2H's. 

MATCHUP 3

Kiz vs. Lowry

Kiz -120 vs. Lowry -111

Once again, the lower-priced guy Kiz (-$400) is the head to head fav. There are two things that always surprise me about Kisner's stats: 1. For his career, he loses strokes around the green (& has done so in 5 of the last 6) 2. Bermuda is his worst putting surface which is odd since he's a southern boy that probably spent most of his developmental years putting on bermuda. For the past calendar year he's hit 68% of his fairways which is top 10% in the field, but his last 3 events he's been well below that average. Since the restart, his ball-striking has been all over the place, with 2 really good events, 2 ok events, & 3 quite poor events. The putter has been red hot which always helps, he's gained 15.7 strokes putting over his last 4 events. His course history is equally streaky even though he's never missed a cut. He's been below field average in GIR's hit 3 times & well above field average twice. Lowry is almost the exact opposite. Since the Travelers, he's gained strokes tee to green in every event (been particularly good with his irons), and the putter has been ice cold gaining strokes only once. He has arguably the sneakest course history in the field, as his WORST GIR% at Sedgefield is 78%, but as you can guess, he has generally putted like shit (bermuda is his worst surface). So it really just boils down to, do you believe that Shane can make up enough strokes ball striking to overcome Kisner's putting?

Other interesting lines:Cauley -117 vs. Glover -113Todd -143 vs. Spieth +113Sabbatini -122 vs. Redman -108Reed -131 vs. Koepka +101Norlander -141 vs. Bezuidenhout +111Henley -145 vs. Lewis +115

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost strokes around the green in 5 of his last 6 events

• He's gained 13.2 strokes putting his last 2 events

• Bermuda is his worst putting surface

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 7 of his last 11 events

• He's lost strokes gained tee to green in 3 of his last 6 events

• He hasn't gained even 0.1 strokes off the tee in his last 3 events

• This is projected to be his highest ownership in almost 18 months

• This is his highest DFS price since the beginning of February

• He loses ball-striking strokes against his baseline on Donald Ross courses

• He loses LOTS of strokes against his baseline on easy courses

• Over the last 12 rounds, he's 80th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 125th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 63rd in the field in sand saves gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 99th in the field in the 2 main proximity buckets

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 73rd in the field in strokes gained tee to green despite having a top 20 price

• Though he's never missed a cut here, he's been below field average in GIR's hit 3 out of 5 times

At 17% actual FNGC LU generated (7th highest), Kiz, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I’m not a big pie fan at all (except of course pizza). Especially ones that contain any kind of fruit. Key Lime pie being the worst followed closely by anything with lemons. Gag. I could probably tolerate some warm apple pie with a scoop of ice cream if you put it in front of me but that's about it.

My go to internet browser on the Mac and iPhone is Safari. Am I a dinosaur or is this still an acceptable practice? Just curious.

Got tested for the Rona this week (precautionary for work as I had direct contact with someone who tested positive). It was miserable mainly because it was self-administered which let me tell you is much worse than someone else sticking that swab up your nose. First off, I was shocked to find out I was going to have to do it to myself. Then after the shock wears off you immediately worry about giving yourself a bad test so what do you do? You jam that shit much further up than you probably should because guess what? You’re not a damn professional and you have no idea what you’re doing. Anyway, it sucked. Hopefully it comes back negative.

Speaking of the Rona I hear one of the symptoms is the loss of the sense of smell and taste. So with that…

Underrated Smell: Fresh-Cut Grass / Overrated Smell: Flowers

Underrated Taste: Savoriness / Overrated Taste: Sweetness

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Wyndham Championship this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!