Wyndham Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Hello darkness, my old friend.....sadly the final major of the season is already over & we get to wait 8 long months until the Masters rolls back around. The 2018 major season was so titillatingly close to being the greatest of all time, with basically all 4 majors looking like locks to go to extra holes on the back 9 on Sunday, and somehow zero of four made it. This season's major winners: Fatrick Reed, Big Balls Koepka (2), and Italian Bill Haas.....your second place finishers in said majors: Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, four way tie for 2nd at the British between Rory, Rose, Kiz, & X-man, and Tiger Woods.....so damn close to being one of the greatest major seasons ever. Onwards to the Wyndham Championship, the closest stop on the PGA tour to me personally, and one of the few courses that I've played on the PGA schedule. It's definitely an accuracy course, and as long as your putting yourself in the right spot off the tee you can score. There's water on about half the holes but for PGA pros it really only comes into play on maybe 2 holes. The course is in a neighborhood so it's heavily tree lined (accuracy), but as long as you don't blast it OB you almost always have a recovery shot. This is the only Donald Ross designed course that hosts a PGA event, unfortunately most of his courses are to short for the modern pro game, but I highly recommend playing any Ross course you can. He always provides you a great mix of club usage, penal and risk/reward holes, and even though I'm not a walker, his courses are always designed with walkers in mind. Over the last 10 years many pros have had their first win here at Sedgefield: Ryan Moore, Arjun Atwal (who was a Monday qualifier!), Webb Simpson, Fatrick Reed, and Si Woo. I'll be out and about on the grounds Friday, if your gonna be out there holla!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when trying to value one guy against another. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Lots of great lines so lets look at a couple that are standing out this week (& I disagree w/ several of the lines this week):Webb is the -130 fav over Hideki, but that seems mighty short to me. Webb has A. Incredible course history w/ a win & 3 other top 6 finishes B. I would argue that on the whole this is the best season he's ever had start to finish C. Putting is the most important aspect here as far as total scoring, and Webb is 12th on tour for the season D. Approach is the 2nd most important and Webb is 4th in the field his last 12 rounds E. He's a local and has played this course a million times. Hideki has played very *ok* recently, but at the last two events he had a hot putter, not exactly something he's known for, which really saved him from missing his last 4 cuts in a row. For reference last week he lost strokes approach and gained about a half stroke for the entire tournament off the tee.This is another case where I strongly prefer the favorite and think the line is to short for Rafa. Last week Rafa gained strokes across the board, while Lowry gained 90% of his strokes via the putter. Now Lowry did hit 82% of his fairways last week, but Bellerive played fairly easy as far as hitting fairways. Some nice value according to the bookmakers as Ryan Moore is the head to head favorite over Niemann yet is $700 cheaper on DK. Both guys have been hot tee to green the last 2 months, I believe the books are giving Moore the edge due to great course history and he is slightly more accurate off the tee.Both guys have had very high finishes in this tournament, and both guys have had extremely poor seasons (for their standards) to date. When Ollie finished 2nd last year he hit 64% of his fairways & 82% of his greens. That would mark season highs in both for this year, (especially in accuracy) for Ollie, as apparently he took driver lessons from Wes Bryan over the summer (thats a low blow, I know). Sergio actually gained strokes in every category last week at the PGA, but the putter was ice cold while Ollie ONLY gained strokes in the short game categories.Two of the chalkier players this week, Suri played really well at the PGA, gained 1.8 strokes per round approach and actually putted poorly. But as DLIII proved 3 years ago, if an older player is gonna win, this is the place to do it. Stricker is a perfect fit for the course as he's both accurate and a great putter. Suri can certainly compete here, it just all comes down to this putter....if he even broke even putting he would have won the French Open a mere 2 months ago.Kirk is extremely interesting this week because he's certainly played better, but still only has 1 top 10 since April. And for a course that *should* fit him well he has pretty mediocre history....in four attempts his best finish is 22nd. On the other hand Keith Mitchell certainly has the higher upside but the two things he can struggle with from time to time are both his driving accuracy and his putter. Side note, he's also had 5 weeks this year where his driving accuracy was 71%+...you just never know with him.

THE Chalk Bomb

Golf is such a funny random game....as you know Tony Finau was the chalk bomb last week, and every reason why we thought he was a great fade ended up being true. He drove the ball all over the course (was in the bottom 3rd for driving accuracy), he was basically the worst in the field getting up & down (28.6%)....hit several water balls & OB balls on approach, but had best strokes gained putting performance of the year by far to salvage a T-42. And because of that one part of his game, he still outperformed his salary. So basically I was right, but I was wrong, but I was right....make sense?Anyways! The chalk bomb for this week has these known facts:1. His price increased $1,600 from last week2. Since the beginning of the year he has lost strokes off the tee in 13 of 19 events3. You have to go down all the way down to Wesley Bryan at $6900 to find a player that has been less accurate off the tee than him the last 6 weeks.4. If you took Kevin Tway out, you would have to go all the way down to Ricky Barnes to find a player that has been less accurate off the tee the last calendar year!5. For the last 6 weeks you would have to go all the way down to MATT EVERY to find a player that has gotten up and down less often than him.6. Over the last 24 rounds he is 131st (in this weak field) in strokes gained off the tee7. Over the last 24 rounds he is 103rd (in this weak field) in strokes gained approach8. He's a head to head underdog against another player that is having an equally bad year9. At last years Wyndham he was 8th in strokes gained putting, gaining 7.3 strokes total, his highest since 2015 (and highest since).10. He's the only jabroni on tour that doesn't wear a hat, and has started putting one handed. What else do you need?11. Below is whats called, 'hitting out of the native area'While not projected for Tony Finau level chalk, Ollie is slated to be way higher owned than he should according to our friends at Fansharesports.com :

10 Facts So You Can Spray Some Dolla Bills In The Club

1. Tee to Green leaders from last years Wyndham: 1. Duf Daddy 2. Ryan Moore 3. HV3 4. Sabbatini 5. Ollie S 6. Stenson 7. Flores 8. Webb 9. Murray 10. JJ Henry2. Top 10 strokes gained approach the last 12 rounds: 1. Kokrak 2. Duncan 3. Hughes 4. Webb 5. HV3 6. Streb 7. Stallings 8. Billy Ho 9. Kirk 10. Keith Mitchell3. Top 10 Total strokes gained leaders the last 12 rounds: 1. HV3 2. Webb 3. Suri 4. Werenski 5. Wagner 6. Duncan 7. Ryder 8. Ancer 9. Wheatcroft 10. Horschel4. Historical GIR leaders at Sedgefield: 1. CT Pan 2. Stenson 3. HV3 4. Lowry 5. Dufner 6. Stegmaier 7. English 8. Ollie 9. Flores 10. Murray5. Historical course driving accuracy leaders: 1. Furky 2. Saunders 3. McNeil 4. Armour 5. Crane 6. Stenson 7. Moore 8. Huh 9. Matsuyama 10. Werenski6. Another par 70 this week, your top 10 par 4 scorers are: 1. Stricker 2. Niemann 3. Hadley 4. Webb 5. Stenson 6. Armour 7. Matsuyama 8. Ancer 9. Schenk 10. McCarthy 7. Top 10 Bermuda putters relative to their baseline: 1. Si Woo 2. Watney 3. Ollie 4. Wes Bryan 5. Rafa 6. Murray 7. Webb 8. Sabbatini 9. Billy Ho 10. Moore8. Top 10 in my course history model: 1. Webb 2. Bill Haas 3. Snedeker 4. Stenson 5. Moore 6. Wagner 7. Billy Ho 8. Lowry 9. Furyk 10. Streb9. Top 10 in my course fit model: 1. Stenson 2. Webb 3. Stricker 4. Moore 5. Niemann 6. Lowry 7. Henley 8. Snedeker 9. HV3 10. Sergio?10. According to Datagolf.com, even though this is a shorter course, strokes gained off the tee actually matter a little more here than the 'average' PGA event. 

Win a FREE M4 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Drive the Green ($5), Albatross ($12), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade M4 driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar