Wyndham 2022 Heavy Petting

View this email in your browser

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

• You will hear a lot of “touts” this week say that course history is important this week because of Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, and Si Woo Kim. However, per DataGolf, Sedgefield Country Club ranks 18th in their course history tool. 

• Sedgefield Country Club is the 3rd easiest GIR% at 77.2% on the PGA Tour since 2015. It is only behind Keene Trace Golf Club and Plantation Course at Kapalua. 

• Sedgefield Country Club is ranked 4th easiest in Par 3 scoring since 2015. 

• Sedgefield Country Club is ranked 3rd easiest in Par 5 scoring since 2015. 

• Sedgefield Country Club is the 2nd easiest in SG: Approach since 2015. 

• Sedgefield is in the top 10 fairway hit % at 70.4% on the PGA TOUR since 2015 & ranks in the bottom half on tour in average driving distance. It’s also in the top half in terms of difficulty when missing the fairways.

• Outside of major championship venues, Sedgefield is in the top 10 narrowest fairways on the PGA TOUR since 2015 at 29 yards.

• Per DataGolf Sebastian Munoz has a 29% chance of finishing Top 20 which ranks 12th in the field this week. His price, on DK, is $7,700 which is the 26th most expensive. If you’re looking for value this week it appears you may be able to find some in Munoz. First round leader? 

• Per Data Golf, the optimal lineup consists of Corey Conners ($9,600), Si Woo Kim ($8,800), Brian Harman ($8,300), Aaron Wise ($8,100), Sebastian Munoz ($7,700), and Martin Laird ($7,400).

• Interesting bounce back candidates this week who all missed the cut at the 3M Open include: Denny McCarthy (Made cut every year since 2018), Kevin Kisner (last two years finished 1st and T3), and Mark Hubbard. 

• Datagolf ranks players strokes gained versus their expectation on certain courses. It can be a useful way to identify pivots. The top 10 at Sedgefield versus their expectation (min 12 rounds) are: McCarthy, Kisner, Si Woo, Sungjae, Villegas, Kizzire, Sabbatini, English, Werenski, & Simpson

• The bottom 10 at Sedgefield versus their expectation (min 12 rounds) are: Stroud, Streb, Hahn, Cook, Hoffman, Cink, Lee, Reavie, Munoz, & Martin

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's Wyndham: 1. KH Lee 2. Simpson 3. Scott 4. CT Pan 5. Im 6. Si Woo 7. Todd 8. Sloan 9. Streelman 10. Henley2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bermuda grass: 1. Hadley 2. Whaley 3. McCarthy 4. Hatton 5. Kisner 6. Long 7. Todd 8. Straka 9. Redman 10. Streelman3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Zalatoris 2. Im 3. Harman 4. Riley 5. Jaeger 6. HV3 7. Lowry 8. Poston 9. J Kim 10. Stallings4. On courses <7200 yards, easy scoring & bermuda greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained: 1. Simpson 2. Kisner 3. Si Woo 4. Knox 5. Conners 6. Glover 7. Rose 8. Im 9. Horschel 10. McCarthy5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses <7200 yards, average to difficult to hit fairways, & easy scoring: 1. Conners 2. Hoffman 3. Glover 4. Simpson 5. Si Woo 6. Svensson 7. Scott 8. Reavie 9. Knox 10. Straka6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Zalatoris 2. Riley 3. Henley 4. Brown 5. Hatton 6. HV3 7. Mitchell 8. Rose 9. Svensson 10. Scott7. Top 10 in GIR's gained at Sedgefield (min 8 rd): 1. Herman 2. Lowry 3. English 4. Simpson 5. DL3 6. HV3 7. Streelman 8. Im 9. Conners 10. Vegas8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1. Horschel 2. Reavie 3. Wu 4. Long 5. Schenk 6. Sigg 7. Tarren 8. Moore 9. Henley 10. Lowry9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 200+ & 150-175, your top 10 in proximity: 1. Zalatoris 2. Lowry 3. Duncan 4. Scott 5. Smotherman 6. Stallings 7. Streelman 8. Munoz 9. Glover 10. Armour10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Wise 2. Harman 3. Munoz 4. Im 5. Si Woo 6. Conners 7. Laird 8. Glover 9. Reavie 10. Lowry

After finally taking a complete L last week in this section, I'm going with a more conservative approach on Thursday with a 3x return. I'm taking JT Poston to have more BoB than Harris English (so take the UNDER on the English line), and I'm taking CBez to have more birdies than Sepp. Sepp has been terrible lately. He's broken since his win months ago. He's got a decent record here, but he's coming of 5 straight missed cuts and a couple near DFL finishes. Harris English still hasn't quite looked like himself since returning from hip surgery, and JT Poston is hot in the streets. These lines are much more about fading English and Straka. 

 A Caddie Perspective after Jumping to LIV GOLF The Tour Junkies go inside the ropes with Patrick Reed's Caddie, Kessler Karain where DB asks him about his first LIV Golf caddie experience versus caddying on the PGA TOUR, the famous Rory-Reed Ryder Cup Showdown, punching a guy at the Presidents Cup and more!