This Week's Tour Stop Workday Charity @ Muirfield Village 

Muirfield...So Nice We're Gonna Play It Twice

I still haven't quite figured out why exactly we're playing Muirfield in back to back weeks after we're already 4 events in, seems like this would have been the play for weeks 1 & 2, but here we are! Muirfield Village is such a classic example of how you get a golf course to play difficult for PGA Tour pros. A lot of the courses that it's most similar to in a statistical profile are actually easier courses (Copperhead, TPC Twin Cities, TPC River Highlands, Sea Island, Sedgefield, TPC Deere Run). So why does Muirfield generally play harder than all of those (w/ Copperhead being the lone exception)? It's really straight forward...get the greens firm & fast, grow the rough up an extra inch, take driver out of their hands on several holes, & make missing the green penal. Now with all that being said, the word on the street is that the rough will be capped at 3.5 inches which is shorter than the Memorial, the greens will be slower by about 2 inches on the stimp just for this week. So the winning score will likely be in the high teens this first go around, but at the end of the day I would expect the course to largely play the same with slightly less big numbers lurking out there. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. Apparently we're playing every accuracy course that's in the PGA rota right out of the gate. The average driving accuracy at Muirfield Village is 68% for the field which is extremely high. Naturally when you're clubbing down off the tee it's going to put a greater emphasis on approach play which the data clearly shows. The GIR % as well as the scrambling % are both lower at MV, which again should tell you the importance of approach play the next 2 weeks.   

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

Rose vs. Fowler

Rose -120 vs. Fowler +100

For really the past year Rickie has been Jordan Spieth Jr. in the sense that his name made him over priced every week in both DFS & betting. But as you know he's been working with friend of the show John Tillery for the past couple months trying to get his swing back together & I think we're starting to see signs of life. Last week at the Rocket Mortgage he gained strokes across the board & had his best tee to green week since the Open Championship last year.  Rickie also happens to be the best bent grass putter in the field that ranks in the top 100 in ball striking. Both players have really sneaky course history, Rose with the better body of work but Rickie has played quite well the last 3 years with a 2nd, 8th, & 14th. 

MATCHUP 2

Hovland vs. Koepka

Hovland -120 vs. Koepka +100

Young Hov a favorite to Brooks! Say that out loud a few times...can you believe we're here. 2020 is nuckin futs man! Well, it's probably because Hov has appeared to put in the work around the greens during quarantine and it's starting to pay off. His ball striking has been among the best since the return and he's barely of drinking age yet, so playing all of these events in a row won't bother him just yet. Had Hov not lost 6.8 strokes putting his last 2 events its hard to think that he wouldn't have come away with at least 1 win. And yes, Brooks said he was hungry and ready to start winning again, but don't we typically see Brooks try and peak for bigger events (like maybe Jack's Invitational next week). Strokes gained approach is THE metric this week, ...We can't believe we're saying it...but, we're in on Young Hov for this matchup.

MATCHUP 3

Rahm vs. Matsuyama

Rahm -130 vs. Matsuyama +110

As we've perused a number of books and matchups with these 2, check this out...Rahm is a favorite in all of them against Deki and Cantlay. Most of the books we looked at even had Brooks as a favorite in H2H's against Deki. It's a heavy favorite kind of number, but it's one worth looking at, and especially for DFS we're starting to find ourselves with more and more Rahm exposure. Sure, you could save $900 on DK using Deki over Rahm, but we still find ourselves buying the Rahm win equity and lower floor.

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Ok, so I'm going to toss in a few FRL's this week. I don't see a huge weather advantage on Thursday, but there are few juicy numbers I liked way too much to pass up. All of the FRL bets will be teeing off early on Thursday. Overall, I don't see a tee time wave advantage for Thursday and Friday. Although, the wind may pick up a touch in the afternoon on Friday, but I think it will have minimal impact. I still see this being a birdie fest (more so than the Memorial set up, but not quite as low as we've seen the last few weeks) where the winning score will be around -18. With that being said, I've got a number of bombs in the card here that could pop up and get hot to steal a win away from this star studded field.

Through 22 Weeks: Spent $1100 / Won $1600 / Up 50 unitsFirst Round LeaderVegas (90/1)_$5, McNealy (100/1)_$5, N.Taylor (125/1)_$5*Dahmen at 80/1 gets an honorable mention here, but left him out due to the likely splitOutright WinnerFitzpatrick (55/1)_$10, Billy Ho (70/1)_$5, Conners (85/1)_$5, Dahmen (100/1)_$7,McNealy (130/1)_$5, N.Taylor (225/1)_$3

Everyone on the outright card has won on the PGA Tour or a big European Tour event with the exception of Dahmen and McNealy. But both Joel and Mav are playing very solid right now, and Joel has been knocking on the door for a while now with multiple top 10s and many times being in the final few groups on Sunday. I just won't be leaving him off the card when he's that close and the number remains at triple digits. You don't want to ride this out with him for this long and then miss it when it hits. I still believe this is a great track for Fitzpatrick and Bones McKay on the bag is probably worth 1 stroke total for the tournament. Billy Ho and Conners are proven PGA Tour winners with excellent GIR/Ball Striking prowess. It's always going to come down to the flatstick for both of them. That Nick Taylor bomb though...here's a guy that won in 2020...yes...Nick Taylor won a PGA Tour event in 2020. He won at Pebble Beach...which is a pretty solid field. We haven't seen his return to golf since COVID, but damn if that 225/1 number isn't the juiciest! He's well worth the flier at a track that rewards accuracy.

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a head to head underdog to someone $100 cheaper than him

• He's price has increased $1000 from 2 weeks ago

• In his last 13 events, he has 1 top 10 finish

• He's gained 0.8 strokes putting per round at MV, despite losing 0.3 strokes per round on average for his career

• In 6 of his last 7 events he's only gained 1 stroke or less off the tee

• In 4 of his last 7 events he's lost strokes around the green

• He's lost strokes putting in 5 of his last 8 events

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 66th in the field in bogey aviodance

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 138th in the field in fairways gained

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 63rd in sand saves gained

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 45th in the field in strokes gained on par 5's

• His total strokes gained on par 72's are about half of what he gains on par 70 & 71's

• His total strokes gained on firm greens are about half of what he gains on all other greens

At 17.2% calculated ownership on FNGC (2nd highest), Joaquin Niemann, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

With everything being so digital these days why do so many people carry around business cards? I feel like they’re pretty much useless at this point but damn if Bob in Sales' first ask on the job is for his stupid business cards.

So I just found out last week that if you put your Iphone in airplane mode it will charge almost twice as fast. Is this a myth? Am I late to the game on this knowledge? Either way you’re all most welcome for this tip.

20 years from now we’re probably all gonna learn that hand sanitizer causes some sort of long term disease. If that happens I’m in serious trouble also because my OCD ass uses it non-stop all day.

If you attached me to some sort of device that physically made me able to swing at speeds like Bryson, but with my actual body and not his, would my arms rip right off my body and travel just as far as the ball?

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the first and only Workday Charity Open. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Memorial:

1. Cantlay 2. Merrit 3. Matsuyama 4. Streelman 5. Dufner 6. Leishman 7. Horschel 8. Grillo 9. Schauffele 10. Spieth

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Muirfield (min 8 rounds): 

1. Niemann 2. Reavie 3. Ben An 4. Cantlay 5. Schwartzel 6. Lowry 7. Cink 8. Dufner 9. Rose 10. ZJ

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Fowler 2. Rose 3. Reed 4. Hadwin 5. Werenski 6. Putnam 7. Cantlay 8. Horschel 9. Leishman 10. Im

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards, average to difficult scoring, and bent greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Fowler 2. Matsuyama 3. Rahm 4. Spieth 5. Koepka 6. Rose 7. Cantlay 8. JT 9. Grillo 10. Bradley

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, long rough, and easy to hit fairway courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1.Matsuyama 2. Cantlay 3. Rose 4. Bradley 5. Schwartzel 6. Stanley 7. Niemann 8. Furyk 9. Woodland 10. Stallings

6.

 Your top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

 1. Hovland 2. Grillo 3. Kokrak 4. Rose 5. Schauffele 6. Dahmen 7. HV3 8. Steele 9. Reavie 10. Stanley

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Muirfield, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. JT 2. Streelman 3. Matsuyama 4. Morikawa 5. Schauffele 6. Day 7. Poulter 8. Rose 9. Rahm 10. Jones

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. JT 2. Hovland 3. Henley 4. Morikawa 5. Niemann 6. Reavie 7. Leishman 8. Hoffman 9. Oosty 10. Matsuyama

9. 

Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Hadwin 2. Conners 3. HV3 4. Garnett 5. Hovland 6. Henley 7. Fowler 8. Schauffele 9. Furyk 10. Streelman

10.

Top 10 'values' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Horschel 2. Champ 3. Day 4. Streelman 5. Lowry 6. Ben An 7. Watson 8. Norlander 9. HV3 10. Stuard