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This is the forecast as of 715pmET on Wednesday for the first two rounds, and it's looking interesting. It's certainly going to be cooler in the mornings than we saw last year. It's clear that the AM guys on both days are going to get the worst winds if the forecast holds with gusts tomorrow reaching 29mph.You could argue that the Th AM / Fr PM group will get both the worst winds tomorrow, but the least wind for their Friday round. Then, you could argue that the Th PM / Fr AM guys get the benefit of lighter winds tomorrow and the back half of their Friday round being mild...plus the greens should get firmer and faster late in the day Friday. We'll discuss all of these options in the Nut Hut Chat tonight.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Jon Rahm -138 ($11,000) vs. Rory McIlroy +114 ($10,800)

The two hottest players walking planet Earth square off in the head to head matchup that we have been waiting for all season. This is an interesting one where the sharpest books saw HEAVY money come in right off the bat on Rahm. The line opened at Rahm -114 but was almost immediately hammered to -146. We have since seen some dollars come back in on the side of world #1 McIlroy.We believe a lot of this may stem from simply the lack of appearances we have seen out of Rory to start the new year. This is event #17 on the PGA Tour schedule, and only the 2nd time we have had Rory tee it up. He, of course, won his only start! Rahm is the slightly more expensive player in DFS and is also projected to be slightly higher owned at this point.Between his familiarity with desert golf and ridiculous PGA Tour run, we understand why Rahm is the somewhat heavy favorite and we should take the betting line into consideration when making your lineups this week. Good luck!

Hideki Matsuyama -121 ($9,400) vs. Jason Day +100 ($7,900)

In our 2nd matchup, we have seen good 2 way line movement over the last couple of days. The line initially opened -110 both ways before the money came in on Hideki right away. Since, we have seen that reverse in favor of dollars on Jason Day more recently to land him back at even odds.The crazy part of this relatively even H2H matchup is the $1500 price difference in Draftkings. That is substantial enough where you have to consider eating the slightly higher ownership on Day (14%) vs. Hideki (10%). Using a Head to Head matchup simulator over a 100-round span, Hideki has a win probability rate of 55% which lines up closely with the betting line, but showcases a lot of value on Day in DFS.One noteworthy and underlooked stat this week is paying attention to where a player tends to miss OTT. The majority of the trouble (water) at TPC Scottsdale lines the left side of the fairway/hole down the stretch. Jason Day's miss is a pull hook off the tee which would land him in trouble here, ranking 112th in Driver left avoidance. Hideki on the other hand ranks top 20 in the field in Driver left avoidance as his primary miss is a fade off the tee.

Sam Burns -109 ($8,600) vs. Corey Conners -111 ($7,700)

This matchup line is super intriguing to me. We know Burns is the more volatile player in terms of highs and lows, but still surprising to see Conners the slight favorite given the discrepancy in both betting outright price and DFS salary.Again, when running a head to head simulation of this matchup, Conners is projected to win $53% of the time. I think it illustrates why the betting line movement has been stagnant. This is a course setup the rewards T2G play more than the average tournament. In the last 36 rounds, Conners has gained over a stroke T2G per round while Burns has struggled at -0.11 SG:T2G per round.This makes for an interesting scenario where you can grab some savings in DFS if you are willing to trust the betting lines and recent form. Currently, Burns is coming in at roughly 10% calculated ownership while Connors is slightly lower at 9%. Decisions, decisions.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. BOOOOOOM!!!! The chalk bomb went nuclear last week as Mav McNealy was too soft and chalky to even finish the tournament. Damn it feels good when a guy in the top 3 of ownership implodes nearly 25% of the entries in DFS!I've noticed in utilizing various sites and tools this week that calculate ownership, there seems to be some differences of opinion on many of the players at the top. That said, the chalk bomb this week, using an average of calculated ownership projections between Fantasy National and DataGolf, looks like he is going to tee off tomorrow at around 20% owned.We believe the main reason that he is set to be so popular centers around his course form where he has gained significant strokes on approach and T2G in his last 4 appearances at TPC Scottsdale. This isn't a huge surprise as we are talking about an elite player with exceptional iron play as his primary skill set. We took a deeper dive however into the players incoming form with his irons in events leading up those previous performances.Strokes gained T2G and Approach Averages in 6 previous events:2018 WMPO - Previous 6 starts lead in form - SG:T2G +6.0  SG:APP +2.62019 WMPO - Previous 6 starts lead in form - SG: T2G +6.15  SG: APP +4.112020 WMPO - Previous 6 starts lead in form - SG:T2G +7.8  SG: APP +3.922021 WMPO - Previous 6 starts lead in form - SG:T2G +5.57  SG: APP +3.26Lead in form this year. Last 6 starts - SG:T2G +3.75  SG: APP +0.28Point being, he's not playing nearly as well leading into this event as he has in the past, clearly. This coincides with a volatile putter that does tend to spike in circumstances, but overall is the glaring weakness long term in this players game. The last 5 starts, this player has averaged LOSING 1.7 Putting per event which is well below their modest baseline of +0.2 Putting over a 20 tournament span.Finally, there has been consistent struggles hitting the fairways. This player ranks 122nd in the field in terms of fairways gained in the last 36 rounds. Furthermore, they appear to be fighting the dreaded 2 way miss lately, ranking 103rd in Driver left avoidance and 107th in Driver right avoidance.When looking at DataGolf  "Good Value Plays" projections for this week, this player has the lowest expected value return of any player that they are projected inside the top 10 in ownership for DFS. There are simply too many concerning trends to warrant a click and we believe this player is more likely to blow up your lineup than he is to win you money in the desert!Settling in this week at an unnerving 20% projected ownership, Justin Louis Thomas, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

I am somewhat fascinated by birds flying south for the winter. I wonder how they pick their destinations though? Is there a pecking order? Like what if you are a bird that wants to go to beachfront Florida but somehow you get regulated to Unadilla, GA? Comedians will come up with jokes for generations but nothing will really have a lasting impact like Deez Nutz. I still can't believe George Foreman made a lot of money off a panini press. When I think back on Elementary school one thing that pisses me off was having to make stupid construction paper covers for textbooks. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. So pumped for this golf tournament and all of its debauchery. It's simply one of the best tournaments of the year and we get a cherry on top with a fantastic field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!