This Week's Tour Stop Waste Management @ TPC Scottsdale 

My Theory

So I've got this theory on life...It goes something to the tune of 'Really shitty things happen. These shitty things happen because without them you would never truly appreciate all the really great things.' Without the lows, how can you ever experience the euphoria of the highs?I've never been a huge NBA guy or basketball in general. But any sports fan with a pulse knew that when you were watching Kobe play, you were witnessing greatness on a level that is rarely if ever duplicated. It's the same reason we watch Tiger in awe because we all know that these kinds of players, the rarest of breeds that blended natural talent with an otherworldly work ethic, just don't come around very often.To lose Kobe was one thing, but for him to have his daughter also on board (along with the other parents & kids onboard) was just an absolute dagger, especially for us with young children. I literally can't imagine how a parent reacts, on an aircraft of any kind, knowing tragedy is about to strike and your child is directly next to you. You always want to protect your children at any cost, and you just can't.I was working when I heard the news, but after I wrapped up & went home I just starred at & hugged both of my boys for quite a while as they slept that night. Without sounding parabolic the general outpouring of love from complete strangers to one another and to the Bryant family reminded me a lot of how the country acted on September 12th, 2001. Everyone took a moment to pause, everyone took a moment to be grateful for what they have, everyone took a moment to tell people around them, 'I love you.' I hate the really shitty thing that happened on Sunday, but I think everyone on that helicopter is smiling down on us, because so so many people took the time to realize just how lucky we all are.  

MATCHUP 1

Spieth vs. Hovland

I always try to keep an open mind when doing my research each week. As you know by now I was leading the charge on the 'Jordan Spieth is not an elite golfer anymore' bandwagon starting at the end of 2017. A little over 2 years later the betting markets have FINALLY brought his prices down low enough where we can see a little value. Yes, he's hit less than 60% of his greens in reg the last 3 events he's played in, but let me make the case for the 1st time in 2 years to at least bet on him in head to head markets. For guys that have played this event at least twice, he's #4 in the field in GIR's hit at Scottsdale (he event hit 75% in 18' when he missed the cut. There should also be some positive regression as he lost 1.1 strokes putting last week (on his worst surface) which was the most he's lost in almost a year (now going to his best surface). He also gets a big bump above his baseline on fast greens & difficult to hit fairway courses. More on Hovland later. 

MATCHUP 2

Fowler vs. Matsuyama

Clear DFS value on Hideki this week as he comes in the -130 h2h favorite over Rickie this week despite being $400 cheaper. I wanted so badly to find a reason to fade Hideki this week & basically the only two things I could find are bermuda is his worst putting surface, and he did lose strokes tee to green last week. He makes an appearance in 70% of the ten facts, and of his ridiculous course history, he's never gained more than 2.4 strokes putting. I can make a case either way for Rickie though...his course is very good, but not nearly as good as Hideki. He almost lost strokes across the board last week on a course that is obviously just not a good fit for him, but unlike Hideki he's going from his worst putting surface to his best surface where he gained almost 10 strokes in last years event alone. I don't think you're going to get an ownership discount in either direction, both have an equally high ceiling & Hideki has a higher floor. 

MATCHUP 3

An vs. Harman

Each week I start my research by doing the 10 facts & start to build out from there, and as always I'm looking for unexpected names to pop up more than once. Both Harman & Benny An fit the bill this week and both should* have some positive putting regression on their side. Last week Ben An lost almost 8 strokes putting which is hard to do, and he now moves to his better surface. Did you also know that he's 3rd in the field in historical GIR's at Scottsdale & in 3 attempts has never finished worse than 23rd? To boot he's #7 in the field in opps gained & a good value relative to Fanduel pricing. Harman has a decent history at Scottsdale making 5 of 6 cuts & hitting 70% of his greens the last 2 times he's played here. The biggest thing that caught my eye was his ball striking. Since June of last year he's gained strokes tee to green in 16 of 17 events & in half of those 16 he gained at least 4.4 strokes. He's also coming off his worst putting performance since August of last year and he's generally one of the best on tour. (plus he should be a fraction of the ownership of Ben An)

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.The weather looks amazing all week in Scottsdale. However, there is a slight edge to be had with First Round Leader bets as the morning wave will see temps between 46-65 degrees while the afternoon wave will get temps from 65-70 degrees their entire round. The ball flies a tad further in the warmer weather and the greens hold up fine on day 1 until the late wave. Again, you've got a high likelihood of chopping the bet if multiple players tie as FRL...so for that reason, I like triple digits in the event I have to split it 3 ways. 

Through 13 Weeks: Spent $650 / Won $1250 / Up 60 unitsFirst Round LeaderLaird (125/1)_$5 & Cappelen (160/1)_$5Outright WinnerPalmer (55/1)_$10, An (66/1)_$10, Griffin (100/1)_$5, V.Taylor (110/1)_$5,English (125/1)_$5, Sabbatini (140/1)_$5

We've seen a good deal of form out of every one of these options over the last few months. Our friend and podcast guest, Sebastian Cappelen, has found himself on page 1 of a couple of leaderboards lately. He's an aggressive player that will embrace the atmosphere in Scottsdale. Love that huge number for him at 160/1. Laird is a resident here with an incredible history at this event. That's too large of a number for him. My "shorter" bets include Palmer and An...both known ball strikers and scorers...both known as shitty putters. An has a great record at this event in only 3 tries, and Palmer nearly won this event back in 2015. Lanto bombs it, scores on par 5's and his upside is winning at 100/1. Vaughn is one of the best values on the board to us both in DFS and the betting market. A T11 here in 2018 and the good form is enticing enough at 110/1. English & Sabbs are getting high marks in my "model" despite some short term form stumbles. The numbers are THICC like I like my ass & thighs, and the e/v is nice!

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• Has broken 70 1 time in his last 9 competitive rounds

• Is making an 11-hour time zone jump

• Has a negative bermuda putting split

• Loses strokes against his baseline on difficult to his fairway courses

• Loses strokes against his baseline on short courses

• 60th in the field in GIR's gained his last 12 rounds

• His last 3 events: 55% GIR's hit (MC), ? GIR's hit (MC), 57% GIR's hit (23rd)

• He's actually putted well in those last 3 events to boot

• He's 51st in the field in the most popular approach shot bucket (& that doesn't include his last 3 shitty events)

• He's never played here

At 15.9% actual LU generated on Fantasy National (8th highest, & I've seen him as high as #4 in other places), Viktor Hovland, your the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Someone who says “I’ll be there in 6 minutes” will normally arrive before someone who says “I will be there in 5 minutes.” Believe me I know, this theory has been tested extensively by someone who is habitually late.

I’ve often wondered, is my dog smarter than me? I mean, he understands several human words but I have no clue what any of his barks mean.

The inspiration for this next pontificate comes from my beautiful wife because gamblers get labeled sometimes as having this terrible addiction that we need 1-800 hotlines for and Gamblers Anonymous support groups. What about a freakin Amazon addiction though? That shit might be worse. Shouldn’t we have support groups for that? It’s damn sure a problem when you’re getting 2 boxes a day with one of them containing a customized Christmas themed dog collar that can only be worn for about a month.

That’s all I got folks. Enjoy the Waste Management Open this week, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's WM:

1. Watson 2. Matsuyama 3. Woodland 4. Vegas 5. Thomas 6. Grace 7. Grillo 8. HV3 9. Im 10. Harman

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at TPC Scottsdale (min 2 appearances): 

1. Matsuyama 2. CT Pan 3. Ben An 4. Spieth 5. Streelman  6. Spaun 7. Horschel 8. Rahm 9. Watson 10. Cauley

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. McCarthy 2. Putnam 3. Burns 4. Taylor 5. Poston 6. Simpson 7. DeChambeau 8. Fowler 9. English 10. Im

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ fast greens, difficult to hit fairways, and short courses your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 12 rounds):

1. Fowler 2. Rahm 3. Laird 4. Spieth 5. Matsuyama 6. Kuchar 7. Simpson 8. Thomas 9. Woodland 10. ZJ

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways and short courses your top 10 is (min 12 rounds):

1. Thomas 2. Conners 3. Ben An 4. Matsuyama 5. Stanley 6. Reavie 7. Rahm 8. Woodland 9. Bradley 10. DeChambeau

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Conners 2. Berger 3. Rahm 4. Knox 5. Wise 6. Taylor 7. Kokrak 8. Homa 9. Finau 10. Bradley

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important Scottsdale, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Morikawa 2. Scheffler 3. Simpson 4. Rahm 5. Thomas 6. Wolff 7. Higgs 8. Matsuyama 9. Finau 10. Fowler

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Chez 2. Straka 3. Woodland 4. Matsuyama 5. Kokrak 6. Hoge 7. Stuard 8. Harman 9. Henley 10. ZJ

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Hadley 2. Walker 3. Higgs 4. Conners 5. Morikawa 6. Munoz 7. Ben An 8. Griffin 9. Armour 10. Thomas

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Hovland 2. Berger 3. DeChambeau 4. Palmer 5. Steele 6. Ben An 7. Smith 8. Landry 9. Kuchar 10. Moore

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG