The WM Phoenix Open 2024 Chalk 💣

No Big Balls Betting card at the moment while the TJ crew battles the elements in Scottsdale, but DB’s latest gutsy plays will be available in the Nut Hut Discord Channel. If you’re not already a member, sign up! You’re missing out…

After catastrophic storms derailed the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM last week, thankfully we won’t need to check the weather app nearly as often in Scottsdale. That said, some heavy rain early in the week has softened up the course and might just bleed into round one along with some significant wind on Thursday. There may be a slight wave advantage for the late afternoon guys, but the only real wind expected on Friday is early in the morning so it may well even out.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Max Homa -156 ($9800) vs. Sam Burns +124 ($9600)

We don’t usually feature names at the top of the odds sheet, but the disparity here in the 9k range between Max Homa and Sam Burns is worth mentioning. While Homa is justifiably $200 more in DFS, sharp books have the Californian as a much bigger favorite in 72-hole head-to-head markets.

Both players have exactly five prior starts at the WM Phoenix Open, and while Max’s track record has been more consistent with 5/5 cuts made and a pair of top-15 finishes, Burns got the better of him last year when he posted a career-best T6 at TPC Scottsdale.

Looking at our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, both Homa and Burns are coming in relatively even at around 16%. So if you’re looking for an edge in this range, it might be worth the tax to go ahead and grab Max.

Denny McCarthy -142 ($7600) vs. Thomas Detry +112 ($7600)

Over in the $7k range, Denny McCarthy is a MASSIVE favorite in sharp h2h markets over Thomas Detry despite both players sitting on $7600 for DraftKings DFS.

If you believe in the value of course experience, perhaps these odds make some sense as this will be Denny’s sixth appearance at the WM while Detry is making his debut. But while Denny does have the history, none of it is good — his best finish is a T33 in his first ‘People’s Open’ back in 2019.

Oh, and neither player is expected to be highly owned with both guys around 5-6% per our ownership projections.

Emiliano Grillo -128 ($7500) vs. Akshay Bhatia -102 ($7800)

Lastly, let’s take a look at Emiliano Grillo who is a surprisingly heavy favorite in h2h markets over Akshay Bhatia, who is a trendy pick this week.

Sharp bettors recognize the importance of experience around TPC Scottsdale, and that’s where the Argentine has a major advantage. This will be Grillo’s NINTH STRAIGHT start at the WM while Bhatia will be facing the raucous crowds at 16 for the very first time.

As I said, Akshay is a trendy pick this week and our Nut Hut ownership projections back that up as he’s trending toward 13% ownership compared to Grillo at just under 5%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

In the words of the great Idris Elba “I want you to put the word out there that we back up.”

Thanks to Rory McIlroy’s lack of golf rules knowledge and subsequent implosion in round two of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, we’ve fully righted the Chalk Bomb ship and are full steam ahead.

So now we turn our attention to “The People’s Open” and the loudest atmosphere in golf at TPC Scottsdale. The Tom Weiskopf design is among the most-predictive layouts on the PGA TOUR schedule meaning that guys who’ve played well here before tend to make a habit of it. Over the years, TPC Scottdale tends to reward elite ball-strikers off the tee and on approach over finesse players on and around the greens. That’s not to say that experience on these overseeded greens doesn’t matter, but we’ve seen guys overcome an off putting week at the WM.

So according to our analysts at Bet the Number and their course-specific model, which of the players projected at >15% ownership don’t quite fit the mold for TPC Scottsdale?

This week’s chalk bomb is an elite putter - seriously one of the best in the world. But at a venue where the flat stick is slightly devalued (15 of the 36 top-10 finishers going back 2021 gained .5 strokes or less for the tournament), his strength on the greens might not be enough to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere.

On a course where driving is critical, this player ranks 80th in this week’s field as he’s lost strokes Off the Tee in eight of his last 10 starts. But what about approach play? While the Chalk Bomb has been impressive as of late in overall SG: APP, his numbers from mid-to-long range, an area that is especially tested at TPC Scottsdale, are less than ideal. Our BTN model has singled out the 125-175 and 175-240 yard ranges as being key this week, and this player ranks 42nd and 39th in the field in SG from those buckets.

Lastly, when compared to other players in his price range in the sharp head-to-head betting markets, this week’s Chalk Bomb comes up just a bit short. In the high-8k / low-9k range, this guy is a plus-money underdog to Sungjae Im over 72 holes and a narrow dog to another popular player in his price range, Ben An.

Combine all of the above with a less-than-elite course history, (MC here last year and best finish is T11) and I can get behind fading a guy who will likely need to bag a top-10 or 15 finish to recoup his value as the 11th-most expensive player in DFS.

With that said… JT Poston, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Brought to you LIVE from Scottsdale (and after some podcast juice) here are some thoughts and reactions to our first few days at The People’s Open!

Sean Foley, the golf instructor. Super nice guy… however… he’s very small. Petite you might say. That and he’s a really close talker. More like a back talker — not like giving you lip but like literally talking to your back. Like behind you. Strange.

Arizona: good wreck managers. The local government makes damn sure you know a wreck is ahead and to move your ass out of that lane. Much appreciated!

Joel Dahmen is hysterical, but NOT as hysterical as Mark Hubbard.

Boogers hit different in Arizona. So much easier in the dry air.

Alright, that’s all I got this week! Enjoy the week at the WM Phoenix Open, you know we will. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!