WGC Close to the Equator

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

These are always some of the toughest weeks to write about when we've got no course history to work with for what is still the beginning phase of the 'real' PGA season. A good chunk of players either have 1 or 2 starts this year making recent form harder to gauge. And with said no course history, we can guess at course fit, but it's still just a guess. Everyone gets all 4 rounds & guaranteed money, with most of the world top 50 in the field. Moral of the story: don't be afraid to fade a lot of the chalk, because everyone and I mean EVERYONE is guessing this week. There will be one particularly famous top 50 player not in the field this week, Tiger Woods. When I was young & foolish I used to think people with back problems were just being wimps. Then I injured my back pretty bad doing something not even mildly athletic (tying my shoe!) and I realized quickly that back pain can be completely debilitating while regretting everything I had ever previously said. While making trips to the chiropractor I got to see first hand what people go through and just how miserable it can be to do very simple things like getting out of a chair or picking something up off the ground. The media has been quick to judge Tiger this week, while most, if not all, players have shown empathy to Tiger and his family. The reality is that none of us truly know the physical pain Tiger has been in the last couple of years. And when you're as driven as he is to be great, your willing to do almost anything to make the pain go away. Tiger doesn't owe the game of golf anything at this point, he's given us more than we could have ever hoped. If he can somehow come back from this, it's probably the greatest athletic achievement of all time, and if he can't, that's just fine too. All we want is a healthy Tiger for his family, friends, and especially Charlie and Sam. 

Back to DFS, I'll do my best to conjure up a best guess for course fit going off of what we actually know. 1. It is long. The boys will be playing from 7,474 yards this week 2. The greens have lots of slope, will be firm & fast, & bermuda 3. According to Paul Azinger (a member), 'If you see the golf course from a 310-yard carry distance off the tee, it's not very hard. If you carry it around 280-290, it becomes a very difficult course.' He also went on to project a couple of winning scores depending on wind, and right now it looks fairly calm sustained winds with gust in the high teens to low 20's. So we'll split the difference & project a winning score of 12-15 under.  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Schauffele vs. McIIroy

Schauffele -127 vs. McIIroy +109

This line certainly surprised me at first glance, but once I did a little digging, it really looks quite fair. Xander is certainly on the wrong side of the variance equation when it comes to expected wins. Consider that since the 2019 Masters, X has finished 2nd 8 times, & 3rd 2 times, with ZERO wins. In that same time period, he's gained at least 10! strokes on the field 11 times. Rory on the other hand has won 3 times since the 19' Masters. BUT dating back to exactly a year ago, he's finished outside of the top 10 in 14 of his last 17 full-field events. I knew it had been a down year for Rory, but I don't think I appreciated (by his standards) just how down he had been. Then add in the fact he's fresh off losing 6.9 strokes to the field in his 1st missed cut since the Open at Portrush. You'd have to go all the way back to the 2013 BMW to find a worse total strokes gained result. Now as you saw in the 10 stats, Rory has played a lot of his best golf during the Flordia swing, and it's easily his best putting surface. I still think I'd have to lay the -127 w/ X, but if Rory is as low-owned as I expect, he could be a sneaky GPP play. 

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MATCHUP 2

Finau vs. DeChambeau

 Finau -111 vs. DeChambeau -105

Another week, another 'first' PGA tour win that just slips through Tony's hands. You certainly can't say he gave this one away though, firing a 64 (low round of the day) in very tough conditions just to get into the playoff. Like Xander, he's on a 2nd place heater w/ 3 in a row and has shown all-around good form across the board. Since the AmEx he's gained strokes in each category in each event sans putting at the AmEx. The only real bad news is that bermuda has historically given Tony fits with the flat stick. Only 4 times in his whole career has he been able to put together a 2nd week of good putting following an event in which he gained at least 3 strokes. In 5 of his last 6 events, he's gained at least 10 strokes on the field, Tony's time is coming. Bryson was surprisingly, or maybe not surprisingly, terrible last week. He hit a whopping 21% of his fairways in route to his first event of losing strokes off the tee since the 2019 Northern Trust. If you were paying attention though, Bryson, for his career, has LOST total strokes against the field in windy conditions. The weather for this week looks much better, but we still have fairly large gust projections in the high teens to lower 20's. 

MATCHUP 3

Scheffler vs. Scott

Scheffler -142 vs. Scott +121

Another surprisingly big number that the sportsbooks have thrown out considering Scottie is a mere $100 more on DK this week. Here's an interesting stat as I do my usual deep dive for this section...guess how many times Adam Scott has finished in the top 9 the last calendar year. If you answered zero, you are correct. The eternally great ball striker has been wildly inconsistent since his win at Riveria 53 weeks ago. Over his last 20 events, he's LOST net strokes off the tee. He hasn't lost any distance, but he's been quite squirrely when it comes to finding fairways as he's been well below field average in 5 of his last 6 starts. The irons have been equally inconsistent as he's lost strokes in 6 of his last 11 starts. And the craziest part is that the putter! has been his best weapon the last calendar year gaining over a stroke per event on average. Scottie has been equally inconsistent but finally found something with his irons at the Farmers. He's gained 13.6 strokes the last 2 events and now comes to his best putter surface in bermuda. He was top 10 in the field last week in strokes gained T2G, he's 9th in the field in GIR's hit the last 12 rounds, & he's #2 in the field in DK value compared to Fanduel. 

Other interesting lines:Smith -124 vs. Zalatoris +106Garcia -158 vs. Lowry +135Palmer -144 vs. Leishman +123Ancer -133 vs. Na +114Niemann -149 vs. Homa +127Morikawa -127 vs. Fleetwood +108Harry -145 vs. Rose +124 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• On fast, firm, bermuda greens, he's 39th in the field in strokes gained putting

• He loses strokes against his baseline on courses >7400 yards

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's almost dead last in the field in strokes gained around the greens

• He's a head to head underdog against someone $700 cheaper

• In windy conditions, his strokes gained falls off a cliff

• Over his last 3 events he's gained 13.5 strokes putting, for his career he's averaged 1 stroke gained per event

• Over his last 3 events, he's gained a grand total of 0.1 strokes tee to green

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 21st in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 47th in the field in Opps gained

At 17.1% calculated ownership on Fantasy National (3rd highest), Sungjae Im, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

How do doctors get away with letting people sit in the waiting room for so damn long? I mean most any other business would never be able to get away with that kind of customer service. Also why is it the norm now to have like 3 different waiting areas before you finally get to see the doctor? It’s like they’re modeling the experience after a Disney ride. Except when the waiting is over you don’t get to go on a fun ride. Instead you get a prostate exam and some drawn blood.

I wonder what percentage of people in the world like lemon flavored Starburst?

50 years ago people probably thought we would have flying cars by now. Obviously we don’t but that got me wondering about what I think we will have 50 years from now. I think we will have flying cars.

 Every word in every language probably started out as gibberish until one person convinced enough people what they said was a real word. I read that somewhere but I’m now applying it to “Bome”.

I feel like our brains are complete ass holes to us at night when we’re sleeping. They either make up a story to scare the shit out of us or do the complete opposite and make up some wondrous amazing experience knowing full well you’re alarm clock is gonna end it all and start your day disappointed. F’in Brains.

 Alright, that’s all I got for this week folks! Enjoy the WGC Workday @ The Concession. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!