WGC St. Jude Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

WGC St. Jude Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

July 24, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop WGC St. Jude Invitational @ TPC Southwind 

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Back in the States & a New Partnership

Well, the sad, long wait for the 2020 Masters begins...just 259 more days guys! On the bright side though we only have 33 more days until college football is back!Anyways a very exciting development is that the PGA tour has announced that Draftkings has become the official DFS sponsor of the PGA Tour! Pat & David already do the Draftkings 'Tour Junkies After Dark' every Monday, which by the way if your not watching/listening every week your missing Pat & David in peak form, usually just entering orbit around planet Tito's. Click the link below to check out this week's episode!

Hopefully a lot of new, exciting opportunities will come from the partnership and give team TJ the chance to introduce our 'silly little game' (ESPN 30 for 30 reference about fantasy sports) to even more people and flood the ecosystem with a stream of new players to join the ranks of the junkies. Fantasy golf has always been the best sweat, and arguably one of, if not THE only DFS sport where the common people can compete directly (& beat) the pros. 

 For TPC Southwind, this course almost always ranks as one of the more difficult on tour. For 9!!! straight years Southwind has ranked in the top 10 of the most difficult to hit greens in regulation. According to Fantasy National our boys have averaged a mere GIR % of 58.6. Not only that but the driving accuracy % is also 53% at Southwind compared to 61% at your 'average' tour stop.  The greens are smaller than average which would also explain why the variation in scoring from putting is lower here than at other stops (& also why the average proximity is smaller even though it's harder to hit the greens). It's an interesting course fit in that regard because usually the accuracy guys are the ones that putt well, but guys like your Koepka's, DJ's, Rahm's can drive the ball so well that it leads to naturally higher GIR %'s and more birdie opportunities. Southwind is one of those rare places where truly any kind of player can win. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Thomas vs. Cantlay 

Pretty interesting line for several reasons: 1. JT I *think* will be the chalk du jour and I really haven't heard anyone mention Cantlay this week 2. Cantlay is the head to head favorite despite being $900 cheaper than JT 3. Cantlay is statistically the better bermuda putter 4. Cantlay is #2 in the field in the top 2 approach shot buckets while JT is 18th 5. JT's strokes gained drops as the course difficulty goes up, Cantlay's strokes gained increase as the difficulty increases.

MATCHUP 2

Kuchar vs. Simpson

Week in & week out the betting & DFS markets just seem to always underprice ole Webber. He's not really known as a 'ball striker' but he gained strokes on approach in every event sans 1 this year, and he's gained strokes off the tee in 6 of his last 7 events. He also just happens to be the 9th best bermuda putter in the field as well as 17th in the approach shot buckets. Obviously with Kuchar being $800 more this week you would expect to see him favored, but Webb is the -115 favorite. Webb does have some history here as well when he finished 3rd in 2014. Depending on where the ownership falls Kuch could be a decent pivot if Webb absorbs a ton of ownership again. Kuch lost strokes putting at the Open for the first time since the Players, and he's the 3rd best bermuda putter in the field. 

MATCHUP 3

Horschel vs. Wallace

Three for three on clear DFS value for the betting lines this week. Billy is $200 cheaper on DK yet the -130 favorite over Wallace. Dollar for dollar Billy has the best course history in the field with 4 top 10 finishes over his last 5 attempts at Southwind. Wallace is probably the more 'talented' player at this point in their careers, but Horschel certainly seems to have a high floor in Memphis. Billy also happens to be one of the best bermuda putters in the field (makes sense considering he's a Flo-rid-a Gator (Go Gata)). Neither guy played great over the pond the last week but both had 2 extra days to recoup from the jet lag. 

MATCHUP 4

Schauffele vs. Fleetwood

We highlighted his exact matchup last week & it served us well as Tommy Lad, who was an unusually high favorite over Xander, went on to finish runner-up to Shane Lowery. Now back on American soil the bookmakers have these two back at a pickem...meaning that Xander is again a nice value at $900 cheaper than Tommy. Both guys played really well at the Open, with Tommy gaining an un-real 11 strokes off the tee, he just couldn't get the putter rolling which has always been his achilles' heel. Xander does have the slight experience edge & actually played well tee to green he just had an unusually poor around the green week. My only concern with both guys is that they own negative bermuda putting splits. 

Other interesting lines:

Noren -125 over Phil

RCB -140 over Putnam

DeChambeau -115 over Scott

Reavie pickem Woodland

Rory -145 over Brooks

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He's missed 5 of his last 10 cuts

  • He's lost strokes putting in 16 of 18 events this year

  • He's lost strokes off the tee in 4 of his last 9 events

  • He's lost strokes on approach in 3 of his last 4 events

  • He's lost strokes around the green in 4 of his last 5 events

  • In 6 of his last 10 events he's either lost strokes total or gained less than 0.8 on the field

  • He has one of the worse Bermuda putting splits in the field

  • Out of 63 players in the field, this guy ranks 38th in birdie or better, and 39th in bogey avoidance

  • Out of 63 players in the field, he's 40th in DK points gained over the last 50 rounds

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on difficult to hit fairway courses

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on difficult scoring courses

  • His top 10 implied odds are 12.50%....so 87.5% of the time he is expected to finish outside the top 10

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at  18.1%, Keegan Bradley, you're the Chalk Bomb!

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1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years St. Jude:

1. DJ 2. Putnam 3. Holmes 4. Stenson 5. Finau 6. Mickelson 7. Koepka 8. Snedeker 9. Mitchell 10. Reavie (honestly it was hard to find 10 guys that both played last year AND gained stroked)

2. 

Historical

 

GIR Leaders the last 5 years at TPC Southwind (min 8 rounds): 

1. Holmes 2. DJ 3. Koepka 4. Horschel 5. Reavie 6. Poulter 7. Phil 8. Kiz 9. Homa 10. DeChambeau

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

 1. Day 2. Fitzpatrick 3. Kuchar 4. Leishman 5. DeChambeau 6. Putnam 7. Kisner 8. Na 9. Simpson 10. Horschel

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ difficult to hit fairways, bermuda greens, and par 70 courses...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.DJ 2. Reavie 3. Rose 4. Stenson 5. JT 6. Phil 7. McIIroy 8. Mitchell 9. Kuchar 10. Simpson ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways courses w/ difficult scoring your top 10 are:

1. Stenson 2. McIIroy 3. DJ 4. Watson 5. Casey 6. Bradley 7. Rose 8. Scott 9. Finau 10. Garcia

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. McIIroy 2. Olesen 3. Mitchell 4. Casey 5. Bradley 6. Furyk 7. Na 8. Fleetwood 9. Holmes 10. JT

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's rated as the highest in importance at TPC Southwind, so your top 10 in par 4 scoring average are:

1. DJ 2. Koepka 3. Rose 4. Simpson 5. JT 6. Cantlay 7. McIIroy 8. Rahm 9. Kuchar 10. DeChambeau

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 and 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Chez 2. Cantlay 3. McIIroy 4. Li 5. Conners 6. Matsuyama 7. Lowry 8. Stenson 9. Koepka 10. Casey

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Matsuyama 2. Mitchell 3. Na 4. Koepka 5. McIIroy 6. Woodland 7. Stenson 8. Cam Smith 9. Furyk 10. DJ

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Leishman 2. Day 3. Fitzpatrick 4. Mickelson 5. Matsuyama 6. DeChambeau 7. Rose 8. Stenson 9. Scott 10. Schauffele

PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"Have you ever popped champagne on a plane, while gettin' some brain, whipped it out, she said 'I never seen Snakes on a Plane"-Kayne-Patrick P. Perry

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