This Week's Tour Stop WGC-FedEx St. Jude @ TPC Southwind 

Old Course, But Not Much History

Like Michael Scott & Deangelo Vickers, I'm a huge Summer Olympics fan. This week was supposed to be the start of Olympic golf in Tokyo (insert sad face). On a bright note as it stands currently the US team will be substantially better (& more interesting) than the one that competed in Brazil. Currently, JT, Webb, Brooks, & Bryson would man the US team, a far cry from Bubba, Rickie, Reed, & Kuchar. Let's hope this ranking holds as Reed is the bubble boy currently, and Tiger is the 5th alternate...I was surprised that he was even that high given his limited schedule. Luckily we have a pretty great run of the golf the next few weeks with an actual MAJOR next week, then the playoff run, followed by the US Open, so put your game faces on boys & girl(s?).

One thing that kept coming up again & again in my research this week was how few rounds most* of the field has played at South Wind despite it being a regular tour stop since 1989. Historically it was the week before the US Open which probably explains why a big chunk of the field has only 1 or 2 appearances. It's a tough course with the winning score usually hovering between 10-13 under. Six to eight holes bring water into play depending on the pin location. Weather will be quite the X factor, & I, unfortunately, don't have any real actionable advice besides giving an extra boost to guys that play well on tough courses & windy conditions. I could absolutely see someone pulling a Daniel Berger from 2 years ago though, where he hit 1 50k tee shot, & promptly WD'ed. The first group doesn't go off until 12 EST, so just keep your eyes peeled the 30 minutes leading up to lineup lock. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. So one of the 4 main categories kind of stands out doesn't it? You don't really hear the narrative of 'second shot golf course' at South Wind but the data shows that it might be THE second shot course. The greens are fairly small which should always tell you several things: 1. approach play is more important (obvi) 2. around the green will be slightly elevated...lower GIR%'s=more scrambling opps 3. Putting has less importance because the smaller the greens the fewer strokes you can gain. The past winners & top 10's are littered with good approach guys (& surprisingly few bombers) that know how to get up & down & grind out pars.  

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

Hovland vs. Berger

Hovland -134 vs. Berger +115

I was certainly surprised to see that both Hovland & Morikawa are head to head favorites over Berger this week. Yes, Berger is coming off the missed cut at the Memorial, but he didn't play that bad considering he still gained strokes OTT, APP, & putting. Before that all he had done was rattle off 5 straight top 10's with solid T2G numbers as well as great putting stats. It's also easy to forget that the 1st 2 times Berger played at TPC Southwind, he won both times! While Hovland made the cut his last time out at the Memorial, his stats were actually worse than Berger, & was the 2nd time in his young career that he lost strokes in all 3 tee to green categories. Like Berger, it's easy to bet on a bounce back, but two other things that concern me about Hovland this week are: 1. He has bad bermuda splits & 2. the harder the course the fewer strokes he gains. 

MATCHUP 2

Schauffele vs. Cantlay

Schauffele -115 vs. Cantlay -101

What looked like a sure-fire missed cut for X man 2 weeks ago at the Memorial, turned out to be his best tee to green week of the year gaining 12.7 strokes on the field. Had it not been for an ice-cold putter (lost 5 strokes) he most likely would have been in contention on Sunday. He's got pretty average course history at South Wind w/ 2 made cuts but not much else to write home about. There's slight DFS value on his side since he's $300 cheaper than Cantlay, the real question being can he continue his 2 event hot streak with his iron play which is the most important consideration this week. Cantlay has been steady since the restart gaining strokes in every category, every week, sans around the green at the memorial. I would certainly argue that he has one of the highest/safest floors in the entire field considering he hasn't missed a cut in almost 18 months. He played well at South Wind last year with a solid 12th place and plays some of his best golf in difficult scoring conditions.

MATCHUP 3

Scheffler vs. Streelman

Scheffler -155 vs. Streelman +129

Interestingly this was the line I was most surprised on when going through my initial look. I wasn't so much surprised that Scheffler was the favorite, more so because he was such a BIG favorite. Coming into this week Scotty had missed 3 out of his last 4 cuts, and all Streels had done was 2 top 10 finishes in his last 3. True Streels had a hot putter in both of those top 10's, but he was also really solid tee to green as well. No great course history to speak of with a 60th & MC, but at $6800 on DK that's a mighty nice price tag for someone who has been playing well. Scotty showed nice signs of life last week, & I would assume that's why the books priced him where they did. He gained 6.1 strokes ball striking last week, & almost broke even in the short game. Bermuda is his worst putting surface, but South Wind sets up very well for a good total driver & iron player like Scheffler. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.WEATHER THOUGHTS: Keep in mind there isn't really a "wave" this week as all players are going off between a 2 hour window on split tees. There is rain coming tonight and most of the day tomorrow that will soften the course up and take the teeth out a little. Thursday also looks to be extremely windy for the entire day and Friday will have a steady wind a little over 10mph. We think this means a couple of things; 1. If the course gets soft, the birdies will be increased (except for probably Thursday with 20mph winds) and 2. Length will be MORE of an advantage with the fairways not rolling out and may put more drivers in the hands of the longer hitters.I won't actually be pulling the trigger on the First Round Leader bets this week. I think the wind is going to lead to more bunched scoring and likely end up with too many guys tied after day 1. I hate splitting a FRL bet with more than 2 players tied for the lead. So, outright bets only here for the card as well as some bonus bets for the Barracuda if you wanted to spend $50 betting that event. For logic behind betting the Barracuda, you can refer HERE to a YouTube video from the podcast where we discuss the CUDA!

Through 25 Weeks: Spent $1250 / Won $1600 / Up 35 unitsOutright Winner - WGCBerger (30/1)_$13, Ancer (45/1)_$10, Garcia (70/1)_$7, Leish (75/1)_$7,Wallace (125/1)_$5, Palmer (175/1)_$5, Dahmen (225/1)_$3Outright Winner - BarracudaSteele (25/1)_$10, Davis (45/1)_$10, Gordon (55/1)_$10, McNealy (55/1)_$10,Power (125/1)_$5, Lebioda (175/1)_$5*I talked up Burns on the pod when he was 35/1. He's now 25/1. McNealy I also mentioned on the pod when he was 70/1. Hope you hopped on both at those numbers, but I still like the value for McNealy at 70/1.

The tougher this course looks to play, the tougher the conditions get with rain and wind, the more I love Berger and Ancer this week. Berger as a 2 time winner here, noted lover of Champion Bermuda greens and in super form just makes too much sense to avoid. Ancer is nearly an auto bet every week that he's not shorter than 30/1 given his form. Sergio & Leish are both solid ball strikers, can play well in tough conditions and Sergio has played very well since the restart. Leish's form isn't great, but he can pop at any moment. Wallace is a Euro tour staple well accustomed to tough conditions and arriving with exceptional form. Palmer nearly won a couple of weeks ago on a tough course in tough conditions at the Memorial, and at 175/1...in a field where there are realistically about 60 guys that can win. Finally, Joel Dahmen...you'll have to join the Nut Hut for any inside info on Joel as we don't have any yet while writing this, but this course suits him to a T! His long term form is tremendous, but the last 2 weeks have been dogshit. 225/1 is YUGE! ***Also, Garcia & Wallace currently sit on the FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble with only 3 events to earn points.***

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's just barely a head to head favorite over someone that's $1200 cheaper than him

• He's a +129 head to head underdog to someone that's only $100 more

• He's improved his around the green game, but his last 2 events he's gotten up & down 47.6% & 34.5% of the time

• On easy courses, he gains 1.5 strokes per round on the field, on average courses he gains .91 strokes on the field, on difficult courses he gains .17 strokes on the field. I expect South Wind to play very difficult with the weather

• In calm conditions,

• he gains 1.5 strokes per round on the field, in average to windy conditions he gains 0.4 strokes per round

• On bermuda greens he averages -0.02 strokes gained per round

• He loses strokes gained his baseline on par 70 courses

• Despite being a good iron player he's only 23rd in proximity in the main approach shot bucket

• He's lost strokes putting in 7 of 10 events this year

• He lost strokes tee to green in his last tournament 

At 17% actual FNGC LU generated (6th highest, though he's higher in several other places), though it pains me to say it, Viktor Hovland, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I think Chex Mix (Original of course) is an extremely underrated snack. It’s just so delicious and really checks all the boxes when you need a good solid snack.

Since DB hijacked the Pontificate section while I was out of town and talked about all the things that annoy him about me, here’s a few things that annoy me about DB. First, he’s really good at talking shit, I mean, like it’s so ingrained in his brain that he just can’t help himself, it’s annoying as hell. Second, he can’t just wear a normal golf shirt on the golf course. And lastly, it’s perfectly fine for him to be late to something, but god forbid you are, hayell no, that can’t happen on his watch. Oh, one more. He’s the captain of the Grammar Police.

So we talked about our school experiences on the pod this week and that got me thinking. I really want the time, energy, frustration, and effort given back to me from all the advanced math classes I took that have proven to be totally useless. I could have just stopped after 5

grade and would have been fine. Who the hell needs Algebra, Trigonometry and Calculus. Now if anybody out there can tell me any of those will help me win more at DFS, I’m all ears, until then, F advanced mathematics (sorry Ben, I know these are fighting words).

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last years St. Jude:

1. Fleetwood 2. Reed 3. Leishman 4. Fitzpatrick 5. Furyk 6. Koepka 7. Watson 8. Rahm 9. Snedeker 10. Casey

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at TPC Southwind (min 8 rds): 

1. Casey 2. Kiz 3. Koepka 4. Berger 5. Jones 6. Chez 7. Horschel 8. Simpson 9. DJ 10. Reed

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bermuda grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Simpson 2. Fitzpatrick 3. Fowler 4. Poston 5. Day 6. Koepka 7. Todd 8. Im 9. McDowell 10. Poulter

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards,difficult scoring, and bermuda greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. McIIroy 2. Mickelson 3. Spieth 4. Garcia 5. Kuchar 6. Berger 7. Stenson 8. DJ 9. Palmer 10. Horschel

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, difficult to hit fairways, and firm greens courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. McIiroy 2. DJ 3. Watson 4. DeChambeau 5. Morikawa 6. Matsuyama 7. Horschel 8. Casey 9. Bradley 10. Rahm

6.

 Your top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

 1. Morikawa 2. Todd 3. Schauffele 4. Simpson 5. Hovland 6. Taylor 7. Wolff 8. Neimann 9. Bradley 10. Matsuyama

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at South Wind, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. JT 2. Hatton 3. McIIroy 4. Reed 5. DeChambeau 6. Schauffele 7. Fleetwood 8. Simpson 9. Finau 10. Ancer

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. JT 2. Morikawa 3. Niemann 4. Casey 5. Li 6. Leishman 7. Matsuyama 8. Chez 9. Oosthy 10. Hovland

9. 

Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds:

1.Watson 2. Schauffele 3. Streelman 4. CT Pan 5. Casey 6. Hovland 7. Chez 8. Koepka 9. JT 10. Ancer

10.

Top 10 'values' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Wallace 2. Streelman 3. Mickelson 4. Todd 5. Chez 6. Oosty 7. Willett 8. Champ 9. Poulter 10. Hughes