WGC St. Jude

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Like Michael Scott & Deangelo Vickers, I'm a huge Summer Olympics fan. It's so great to have golf back in the games, & to see an American with gold around his neck. And let's shout out the true star of the event, the wrist-tatted, shark tooth necklace wearing, Slovakian (South African) Rory Sabbatini who gained dual citizenship for the express purpose of being able to play in the Olympics, and the crazy son of a bitch got a medal. I will say though, I really, really wish Olympic golf wasn't just normal ole stroke play. It would be such a better watch if we could make it into a team event. Maybe do a pod system matchplay tournament. The Ryder Cup is obviously the greatest event in golf, so why wouldn't you model the Olympics after some form of team play is beyond me. One other thing to keep in mind is that players coming back over from Tokyo are facing a HUGE time difference. It's obviously not going to show up in any data, but that's a major adjustment to make in what is in essence 2 days (they lose 14 hours coming back). I would shave a full 1.5-2 strokes off every single one of their projections for this week. If this wasn't a WGC with guaranteed money & guaranteed world golf ranking points, almost none of these guys would even be playing. Anywho, one thing that kept coming up again & again in my research this week was how few rounds most* of the field has played at Southwind despite it being a regular tour stop since 1989. Historically it was the week before the US Open which probably explains why a big chunk of the field has only 1-3 appearances. It's a tough course with the winning score usually hovering between 10-13 under. Six to eight holes bring water into play depending on the pin location. We have lots of 450-500 yard par 4's, and unlike every other week on tour, 150-175 yards is the most common approach shot bucket and not 200+. The average driving accuracy is 56% here (63% tour average), the GIR% is 59% (66% tour average), & avg driving distance is 285 (282 average). 

Last year the weather was pretty brutal at this stop, but it looks almost perfect this week. Very little wind with sunshine every day & *relatively* cool temps for summertime in Memphis. 

(Image courtesy of DataGolf) Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. So one of the 4 main categories kind of stands out doesn't it? You don't really hear the narrative of 'second shot golf course' at Southwind but the data shows that it might be THE second shot course. The greens are fairly small which should always tell you several things: 1. approach play is more important (obvi, & hello JT from last year) 2. around the green will be slightly elevated...lower GIR%'s=more scrambling opps 3. Putting is less important because the smaller the greens the fewer strokes you can gain (hello again JT who won while LOSING strokes putting). The past winners & top 10's are littered with good approach guys (& surprisingly few bombers) that know how to get up & down & grind out pars. 

Leh Go! 

MATCHUP 1

Harman vs. Kokrak

Harman -112 vs. Kokrak -104

Two very interesting guys this week, with an interesting H2H line. Kokrak is $300 more expensive and projected to be way higher owned, yet Harman finds himself as the sportsbook favorite. Course history is a push since they have 1 combined event here since 2015, though Kokrak did play well tee to green that week hitting 75% of his GIR's. Harman has been sneaky, sneaky-good dating all the way back to the Players. While he does have 2 MC's in that stretch, his next LOWEST finish is 19th. TPC Southwind should on paper be a good course fit for him as well. It's a sub-7200-yard track that requires good approach play, & good around the green play, his two strengths. He also hasn't been that bad at DK scoring the last 50 rounds, ranking 17th in the field. Kokrak has been much streakier all year, but we do have to give him props for what seems like a really positive change in his putting. Over his last 10 events, he's averaged 2.6 strokes gained per event. Quite the change when you consider for his career he's averaged -0.2. The DFS price is right for both guys, the biggest thing being Kokrak is projected for 19.2%, & Harman at 13.4%. 

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MATCHUP 2

Hatton vs. English

 Hatton -107 vs. English -109

With Hatton coming off back-to-back missed cuts & Harry regaining the elite form he had last year starting at the PGA, I was quite surprised to see these 2 as basically a pickem in H2H markets. Overall it's been a pretty disappointing year for Hatton sans a 2nd at the uber weak field Palmetto. He's had several events this year where the T2G game has been good to very good but uncharacteristically has been very bad with the putter. You would think that Southwind would also be a great fit for him, but he's played here the last 2 years with pretty middling finishes of 43rd & 69th. He's a good bermuda putter & elite around the greens, but it sure seems like a leap of faith at his fairly lofty projected ownership. I expect Harry to be in the top 3-4 owned this week & rightfully so. Starting at the Byron Nelson he's gained at least 5 strokes T2G in every event sans 1, and his elite putting snapped back at the same time, gaining at least 2.5 strokes in every event sans 1. He also possesses good course history as a former winner with a couple of other high finishes. 

MATCHUP 3

Koepka vs. Berger

Koepka -130 vs. Berger +105

Considering Berger is $1400 cheaper than Brooks this week and only a +105 dog I like the DFS value. Of course, so does the rest of the world. Both guys will likely be in the top 5 owned, and pound for pound have the 2 best course histories in the field. Both guys have also been in great form recently. Brooks has gained at least 9 strokes on the field in 4 of his last 5 events, while Berger has gained greater than 7.1 total strokes in 5 of his last 9. Brooks probably has the ball striking edge with better driving & slightly better approach play, while Berger has been much better around the greens & putting. Currently, Brooks is projected for 24.6% ownership on FNGC & Berger at 21.3%. 

Other interesting lines:Fitz -160 vs. Hatton +130Reed -112 vs. Fitz -104Oost -138 vs. Rory +118Cantlay -127 vs. Scheffler +109DJ -114 vs. JT -102Spieth -123 vs. DJ +105Finau -108 vs. Smith -108English -145 vs. Zalatoris +124

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost strokes around the green in 10 of his last 13 events

• He's averaged (-1.7) strokes putting his last 5 events

• He's lost total strokes against the field in 2 of his last 3 events

• He's played here 4 times & has never finished higher than 27th

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 26th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 50th in the field in birdie or better gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 52nd in the field in strokes gained on par 5's

• He's a H2H underdog to most of the guys right around him in price

• Over the last 8 weeks, he's traveled from Ohio to California, to Scotland to England to Japan back to Tennessee

At 16.3% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (10th highest) Corey Conners, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Why do bikers feel the need to ride on the busiest F’in roads during rush hour? Not only is it extremely annoying, but I mean, if you’re trying to die or get seriously injured there are better ways to accomplish that. 

I don’t know who needs to hear this (perhaps just me), but you can throw away that box your iPhone came in. You do not need it. You will never need it. 

Here’s one for y’all. DB, Ben, and I were all talking today about so called “Championship” golf courses. What the hell constitutes a course as a “Championship” golf course? Are there parameters? If you have the city Junior golf championship on a course does it automatically become a championship course forever? The guidelines just aren’t clear on this. 

So, Chalk Bomb Ben got sent home from his club this past weekend for wearing a blade collar. There’s a lot to digest here. First off, personally I’m not a big fan of blade collars, that’s just my preference, but it's not like they look all that bad or "unkempt" as some pompous ass club dress code policy despot might think. That said, let me get this straight, TIGER WOODS can wear a blade collar/turtleneck winning the freaking Masters at AUGUSTA NATIONAL. The US Olympic Golf team uniforms were also blade collars this year. Yet somehow, it’s unacceptable though to wear one at your normal local club. That’s just ridiculous. Dress codes can be pretty damn stupid at times. Hell I see people all the time that actually look worse wearing normal club approved shit because they are just sloppy dressers. Where’s the sloppy dresser code in the rule books? 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the WGC FedEx St. Jude. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!