This Week's Tour Stop WGC-Mexico @ Chapultepec 

One Year Ago

As part of my process, I always go back and look at what I wrote about the event/course in previous years as a kind of self-grading/rolling notes to myself. A year ago last week the 20 highest owned players all made the cut, my least favorite kind of weeks to be sure. But for most of 2020 so far the chalk has generally struggled, and it's been a great start to the year for my own personal DFS accounts. Also as part of my process, I like to go back & look at the guys that were higher owned in the nose bleed stakes and lower owned in the micro stakes to see exactly (or at least hypothesize) about what the 'sharps' are doing on a week to week basis. For the most part, you can conclude a couple of things that 'they' value more than the casual player. The first thing being VALUE. The sharps care much more about a player's price than just about anything else. Last week was a great example of this: Xander at $9200, Rose at $8500, Casey at $7900, Bryson at $7900 etc. All these guys were owned at almost twice the clip in the $2120 dollar DK entry compared to the $3 entry. The second thing that really stands out (most) weeks is that they rarely pay up for the top guys. This is both directly related to what I just described, and generally allows them to not have to dip into the low 6k range where just making the cut is a less than 50% proposition. The 3rd thing that again relates directly back to #1 is that long term form trumps everything else. Generally speaking, a player's scoring average over the past calendar year is more predictive of future play than recent form, course history, or course fit. This again all relates back to the value part. Good players at cheap prices is, in essence, the modus operandi of the best DFS & betting players in the game. I know that's really simplistic but it's also the truth.

A bit about the course this week (image & data again courtesy of DataGolf). About as close to the 'standard' course fit as it gets. Driving distance again takes on greater absolute importance while accuracy is again slightly penalized. The 2nd picture is Gary Woodlands' yardage cheat sheet. You should be able to deduce why long hitters have an even bigger advantage here. If your Chez Reavie and average 286 yards off the tee, a 15% increase equates to 42.9 more yards. If your Rory McIIroy and average 314.4 yards off the tee, a 15% increase equates to 47.1 more yards...the bombers advantage is 5 more yards on top of their existing advantage. This obviously goes all the way through the bag. I do find it interesting that in the 3 years the event has been played at Chapultepec literally 1 person has lost strokes putting and still managed a top 10 finish (for reference 3 people did that last week at Riveria). Take a close look at some of the international players this week as well that will have limited strokes gained data. With a limited field no-cut events your going to need a couple of diamonds in the rough, and don't be afraid to leave $ on the table. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Casey vs. Garcia

I tried to select the 3 match-ups that featured the most heavily projected guys & key decisions this week, starting with Casey & Sergio. I was hoping that Sergio would get lost in the weeds this week since he's only played in one PGA event so far in 2020. What you won't see in his strokes gained data is 2 top 8 finishes on the Euro tour since the start of the year accompanied by his usual elite ball-striking stats (hit 85% of his greens in reg at the Saudi event & probably should have won). He just so happens to have good course history, ranking 5th in the field in GIR% in Mexico, & gained 5.9 strokes T2G last week. Having said all that it should be even more impressive that Casey is the -130 favorite (& expected to be lower owned). He owns the 2nd highest GIR% in the field at Chapultepec, and has been his usual ball-striking self. The concern being in 4 events in 2020, Casey has already lost 13.5 strokes putting!

MATCHUP 2

Matsuyama vs. Fleetwood

Certainly, a little value on Tommy Lad as he's $800 cheaper than Hideki this week with the books having the matchup as a pickem. Hideki actually has the better course history as far as tee to green performance is concerned. Tommy Lad has basically been at field average for GIR% the last 2 years here, while Hideki has been slightly above. The main difference in their results has been the flatstick with Hideki losing strokes putting both times he's played here, and Tommy Lad has actually gained strokes putting all 3 times he's teed it up (over his 57 measured PGA rounds he's lost 0.1 strokes per round on average for reference). Just like with Sergio, Tommy's last 4 events you have no strokes gained data to view, but he's gone 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 11th while absolutely hammering GIR's hitting no less than 68% his last 10! events. So basically, do you feel lucky that he's going to gain strokes putting in Mexico for a 4th straight year?

MATCHUP 3

DJ vs. McIIroy

I would certainly say that this is the key decision of the week for most folks. The head to head price honestly shocked me, I was very surprised to see Rory as such a big favorite, but that's not all. I've actually seen Rory as high as -180 (Rory would be expected to win the matchup 2 out of 3 times at that price) in some places which really made me take a hard look as to why. Before last week, if I asked you the question, 'Please tell me the last time DJ had a top 19! finish on the PGA tour (not including the 34 player field of the TOC)' would you know the answer? May. MAY of 2019. I write about the PGA tour every single week and I still couldn't believe that. Here's another trivia question for you, tell me how many times Rory has finished OUTSIDE the top 19 in a PGA tour event since May of 2019. If you answered 'twice' you would be correct. I knew Rory had been playing better, but I honestly had no idea just how much better until I really compared them side by side. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.The weather this week in Mexico city will be a non factor. It will be clear, dry and very little wind. I don't see a FRL advantage tomorrow, so I'll stick to just outrights. You'll also notice some outrights for the Puerto Rico Open. This event is a crap shoot birdie fest on a resort course where any type of player can win. It just takes 1 hot week. DON'T BET THE FAVORITES at PRO! The weather at the PRO looks a little windier the first couple of days and some possible rain, but nothing apocalyptic. Also...click here to join "Goalby's Nut Hut" because we got some great Caddie insight about the altitude here in MEXICO going out in the chat room tonight. 

Through 15 Weeks: Spent $750 / Won $1250 / Up 50 unitsOutright WinnerWoodland (45/1)_$5, C.Smith (90/1)_$5, Howell III (100/1)_$5, Ortiz (125/1)_$5PRO / Norlander (50/1)_$5, Seiffert (66/1)_$5, McCumber (70/1)_$5, Trahan (80/1_$5,Cappellen (100/1)_$5, Saunders (100/1)_$5

Gawd what a sweat we had last week with HV3 at 400/1 who was leading on the 10th tee before he topped it, and then IF you were in the NUT HUT on Wednesday night before lineup lock...you would've seen Pat talk up Joel Dahmen at 275/1 who nearly went to a playoff the last 4 holes on Sunday. This tells me that the process is going really well. The fact that we've got a real sweat most weeks is big. Remember, this is still golf. It's variable as fuck! Keep grinding it out people!For Mexico, how can you not get a chub when you look at Gary's yardage cheat sheet and bet his ass. Fits the bomber mold and has the chops to win a big event. I just have a gut feeling about Cam this week. He finished 6th here last year in his 1st attempt, and I love the Aussie experience on Kikuya in terms of chipping around these greens. CH3 finished T16 in his 1st attempt last year, and flashed some low rounds in 2 of the 4 rounds last week. These big time world golf ranking events mean a lot to CH3 at this point in his career. It's his last shot at POA putting surfaces for quite some time, and that's where his bread has been buttered for decades. Ortiz would be the local hero story for sure, but don't forget he's a bomber and he arrives in very strong form. My PRO picks start with Norlander who's played here once before and tends to do quite well on shorter resort courses. Seiffert is a young bomber that's been playing exceptionally well in the regular events. McCumber's form has been solid as well lately and his putter is STUPID good. Trahan had a solid finish here in 2019, has played the event a few times before and arrives flashing some form. Cappellen is on the record with us saying he loves resort courses where he needs to be aggressive and score. Enough said there. And finally, Saunders arrives in no short term form having missed cuts at the Amex & ATT, but he's 3rd in this field in SG Total on this course over the last 5 years with two Top 5 finishes in his last 3 events. Worth a crack at 100/1.

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a +165 underdog to someone $400 cheaper in price

• He's a +124 underdog to someone $400 cheaper in price

• He's a very slight favorite to someone $1600 cheaper in price

• Over his last 50 rounds of strokes gained data, he's 29th in the field in total strokes gained

• Over the 3 years he's played this event, he's averaged 1.3 strokes gained putting per round, over twice his career average

• He's lost strokes tee to green in 4 out of the last 5 shotlink events he's played in

• For someone who is historically a great driver of the ball, his high water mark in 2020 for strokes gained off the tee is 0.3 strokes per round

• He's lost strokes putting in 8 of his last 10 shotlink events

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 5 of his last 9 shotlink events

• Despite a top 10 finish last week, this guy only hit 50% of his greens in regulation

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 37th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 35th in the field in strokes gained on par 5's

• Plus, see the matchup covered above

At 17.4% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (7th highest in the field) Dustin Johnson, you're the Chalk Bomb! We're going high risk, high reward again this week guys. DJ is still -175 to finish in the top 10, but at his price & ownership, anything outside the top 5 would be a successful fade in this limited field. So if you're in the faint of heart category or are easily tilted then please pretend you didn't read this. Godspeed!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

As a twin I’ve often wondered if I’m the unplanned one or my brother is.  My hunch is me since he’s the clear parental favorite.

If my calculator had a history, it would probably be more embarrassing than my browser history (well maybe that’s a stretch, but it would still be pretty embarrassing)

If for some odd reason I happen to wake up like 10 or 15 minutes earlier than usual, it’s like I’ve been gifted more time and I end up doing random stuff I wouldn’t normally do. Then I end up late for work. 

How come cars these days have all this technology like Bluetooth, Carplay, and wifi so you can surf the web but you still have to take them to the shop to figure out what the hell the check engine light is on for?

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's WGC:

1. McIIroy 2. DJ 3. JT 4. Koepka 5. Woods 6. Garcia 7. Casey 8. Cantlay 9. Matsuyama 10. Schauffele

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Chapultepec (min 8 rounds): 

1. DJ 2. Casey 3. Hatton 4. McIIroy 5. Garcia 6. Matsuyama 7. JT 8. Schauffele 9. Molinari 10. Westwood

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Kuchar 2. Ortiz 3. Smith 4. Na 5. CH3 6. Scott 7. Wallace 8. Rahm 9. McDowell 10. Simpson

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ Poa greens, average scoring, & shorter than 7400 yards your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Casey 4. Watson 5. JT 6. Matsuyama 7. Hatton 8. Morikawa 9. Scott 10. Spieth

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on average to difficult to hit fairways, average to difficult scoring, and shorter than 7400 yards your top 10 is (min 10 rounds):

1. Conners 2. JT 3. McIIroy 4. DJ 5. Matsuyama 6. Fleetwood 7. Rahm 8. Morikawa 9. Kokrak 10. Woodland

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. Scott 2. Conners 3. Schauffele 4. McIIroy 5. Fleetwood 6. Morikawa 7. CH3 8. Casey 9. Rahm 10. Kuchar

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important in Mexico, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. McIIroy 2. JT 3. Schauffele 4. Griffin 5. Munoz 6. Fitzpatrick 7. Morikawa 8. Casey 9. Rahm 10. Scott

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Scott 2. Simpson 3. Woodland 4. McIIroy 5. Wallace 6. Morikawa 7. Casey 8. Kisner 9. JT 10. Kokrak

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. JT 2. Munoz 3. Casey 4. Matsuyama 5. McIIroy 6. Leishman 7. DeChambeau 8. Oost 9. DJ 10. Simpson

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Snedeker 2. CH3 3. Scott 4. Casey 5. Kisner 6. Ortiz 7. Lowry 8. Morikawa 9. Leishman 10. Fleetwood

11.

Top 10 international guys in my model:

1. Fleetwood 2. Perez 3. Kitayama 4. Lorenzo-Vero 5. Macintyre 6. Herbert 7. Ishikawa 8. Jazzy J 9. Schwab 10. Hatton

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