WGC Mexico Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

WGC Mexico Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

February 20, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop WGC Mexico at Chapultepec 

The Chalk is getting sharp?

I ask myself this question a lot...is the general playing public getting smarter? Is there better data available? Are people paying attention to game theory more? I'm not sure, maybe all of that is true. Last week all 20! of the highest projected owned guys made the cut. Two weeks before that the highest owned player won the tournament (Rickie). I suppose it's both personal experience plus #math that originally lead me to my current playing style; try to be really overweight on about 10 guys and only have 40ish players in your player pool (assuming a full field event). I can't tell you how many times I've had 40% of the guy that is 30% owned who plays well, only to break even or slightly lose money because I really didn't gain anything on the field by having said player. Basically the point I'm making is that even if you load up on the chalk, you really have to nail the rest of the lineup to even get in the top 1% of gpp's, let alone the top 0.1% which is where the only real money is. When you take the opposite approach, fade the chalk and have big leverage on the guys you feel strongly about, if your scenario plays out it gives you a LOT more wiggle room to have a big week. Take Pebble Beach for instance, if you got 5 of 6 thru you probably cashed in GPP's, 6 of 6 gave you a real shot at a top .01% lineup and all you needed was 6 top 20 guys. Those are the weeks that I really try to capitalize on. It's a lot like trend following in trading where you take a lot of breakeven/small losing trades (like 80% of the time) and the 3-4 events each year where the chalk really fails is where we eat. So lets eat!

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Poulter vs. Stenson 

This line sticks out like a sore thumb, and I really can't figure out what the books are seeing with this one outside of the strokes gained approach narrative and this being Poulter's first time here. Stenson has played in 3 events this year, Stenson has missed 3 cuts this year. Poulter has played in the same 3 events, and gone 6th, 3rd, 6th....just a touch better than 3 straight missed cuts. Poa is Poulter's worst putting surface while it's Stenson's best. However in his last event Stenson averaged 33 putts per round #ReallyNotGood. As far as DK pricing it's very odd as well because Stenson is $600 cheaper, yet he's the favorite. Perhaps the books are counting on Ian drinking the water!

MATCHUP 2

Rafa vs. Molinari

Another line that I strongly disagree with the books, and also considered making my bet for the week on OneGrooveLow. Yes, Molinari hasn't played since the Tournament of Champions so your just guessing on 'recent form,' however you could also say that he's going to be well rested unlike Rafa who is playing in his 5th event in 6 weeks. What I do know (& if you read last week it's basically the same argument) is that his ball striking has been pretay pretay sub-par really all season so far. He's yet to hit more than 63.9% of his greens at any event, and even at the Genesis last week he gained a whooping 1.1 strokes off the tee PLUS approach shots. His hot putter and short game continue to account for a huge percentage of his scoring, and the one week he didn't gain strokes around the green, he missed the cut. Given me the guy that is one of the best total drivers in the game right now as well as an elite ball striker who is well rested!

MATCHUP 3

Thomas vs. Johnson

One of the key decisions of the week, DJ or JT. This is the first time I can remember seeing DJ as an underdog against anyone except Rose the last calendar year. IMO this is a great time to get leverage on DJ because he's perceived as not being in great form (false), somehow JT is perceived to have better history here than DJ (false), and he's perceived to have a better course fit (certainly debatable). A lot of folks will point to DJ's poor finish at Pebble, but just like we discussed in that week's edition of the bomb, you can't fly from the literal opposite side of the planet, play that same week, and not see some performance decline. He actually still hit the ball great tee to green he just putted terribly. 

MATCHUP 4

DeChambeau vs. Brooks

Both guys 'should' fly under the radar a little bit relative to what their ownership baselines generally are. It's amazing the difference a year makes....a year ago Bryson was averaging like 33 putts per round and blasting the ball everywhere. Today I would argue he's the most 'complete' player in the game as he literally has no weakness which makes him extra hard to fade. It doesn't matter how you slice the time, he gains strokes across the board on average every event. In full disclosure I don't think I've ever been on Brooks the right weeks. Of the top ranked golfers in the world, Brooks certainly seems to have the widest range of outcomes which makes him ripe for fading on weeks where his ownership is high, but thats not the case this week. With no recent form to see, and apparently drinking the water last year, I would be surprised if Brooks is over 10% owned which are the week you want to pounce. The H2H price seems fair as Bryson has the way higher floor with Brooks having an ever so slight edge in upside. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be projected for a minimum of 18% owned on FanShareSports.com. The pickin's this week are slim as the ownership is projected to be fairly spread outStats about our boy this week:

  • He loses strokes putting on every surface

  • His GIR % has dropped in 5 straight events

  • In his last 7 events he hasn't averaged less than 29 putting strokes per round, and in 5 of 7 he's averaged 30+ (when your at 30+ your substantially over the tour average)

  • The guy is known for his approach game, but only gained 0.7 strokes approach at the Genesis last week

  • The week before that at Pebble he lost strokes off the tee

  • His best finish this year? 16th place

  • Par 3 scoring was one of the key stats in backtesting, this guy ranks outside the top 30 in the field

  • At last years WGC Mexico he lost strokes on approach shots (again, his 'strength')

  • He's 20th in the field in birdies made in 2019

  • This is projected to be his highest ownership outside of the Fedex Playoffs since the US Open last year

  • Most books have him at 3/3.5 to 1 for a top ten finish, so 66% of the time the books project that he finishes outside the top 10. I like those odds when a quarter of the field is on him.

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 22.4% this week....Tommy Lad, you're the Chalk Bomb!

Now is the perfect time to join! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years WGC:

1.Barn Rat 2. Hatton 3. JT 4. Molinari 5. Noren 6. Spieth 7. Sharma 8. X 9. Phil 10. Watson

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at Chapultepec:

1. JT 2. Phil 3. DJ 4.Hatton 5. Barn Rat 6. Rory 7. Fleetwood 8. Sergio 9. Sharma 10. Rahm

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

1. Phil 2. DJ 3. Spieth 4. Cam Smith 5. Bubba 6. Kiz 7. JT 8. CH3 9. Reed 10. X

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ Poa greens, difficult to hit fairways, short rough, and average scoring, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Bubba 2. JT 3. DJ 4. Hideki 5. Phil 6. Grillo 7. Rory 8. Hatton 9. Finau 10. Woodland....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history (kind of hard for this event):

1. Hatton 2. Sergio 3. Rory 4. Fleetwood 5. Rahm 6. Casey 7. Spieth 8. Barn Rat 9. Rafa

6.

 Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds (who's a hot ball striker):

1. Hideki 2. CH3 3. Poulter 4. Fleetwood 5. Rory 6. Keegan 7. JT 8. Phil 9. Kuchar 10. Lowry

7.

Strokes gained putting leaders from last years WGC:

1. Rafa 2. Phil 3. DJ 4. JT 5. Uihlein 6. Sergio 7. Fitz 8. Webb 9. Hatton 10. Rahm

8.

Top 10 in good drives gained the last 24 rounds:

1. Stenson 2. Chez 3. Molinari 4. Horschel 5. Grillo 6. Fleetwood 7. Bryson 8. Rickie 9. Fitz 10. Rahm

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Bryson 2. Hideki 3. JT 4. Finau 5. Koepka 6. DJ 7. Woods 8. Woodland 9. Fowler 10. Rory

10.

According to both DataGolf and Fantasy National, strokes gained Off The Tee is more important here than on the average tour stop, so your top 10 in strokes gained off the tee last 24 rounds :

 1. Rory 2. Rahm 3. Bubba 4. Bryson 5. Woodland 6. Ancer 7. Fowler 8. Finau 9. DJ 10. Koepka

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"Jefe, you do not understand women. You cannot force open the petals of a flower.When the flower is ready, it opens itself up to you."

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