This Week's Tour Stop WGC HSBC Champions 2019 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.As of Wednesday afternoon, the weather in Shanghai, China looks absolutely flawless all 4 days of the tournament. There's not a drop of rain on the course, and the wind will not be a factor. This place will be in optimal condition to score.Yet again, we got some Caddie inside info late last night after he got off the course. It's quite contrary to what we thought we were going to get on Monday night when we recorded."Course is good. Driving Accuracy will be huge this week. The rough is Bermuda and fucking deep and thick. The rough in the past used to be overseeded and short, which worked for the bombers. That's not the case anymore."So, this really throws a wrench in our Monday Podcast gameplan of team bomb and gauge. However, it does open up some nice possibilities in the GPP market if you want to play some lower owned guys that hit their ball straighter than most. This same caddie said a notable bomber in their practice round yesterday remarked at how different it was to attack off the tee now due to the lack of overseed in the rough. I'm again foregoing the FRL bets this week given the 2 hour tee time and lack of weather advantage. It's also lame to bet the shorter odds guys given the no cut, high level of unknown and variability with the course playing a little different than in past years. Let's load up on tickets we would actually get excited (possibly a chub) about winning on Sunday!

Through 7 Weeks: Spent $350 / Won $750 / Up 40 units

Outright WinnerHorschel (40/1)_$5, Cabrera Bello (40/1)_$5, Fitzpatrick (45/1)_$5, Hadwin (60/1)_$5, Oostie (60/1)_$5, Kisner (75/1)_$5, Bubba (110/1)_$5, Poston (110/1)_$5,***Poston Top 10 (7.5/1)_$10***

This list does look a lot different than I thought it would look on Monday. Nobody on this list is a "short" hitter off the tee with the exception of Fitz and Hadwin. But, it's not near as bomber heavy as I thought initially. I still love the upside, pedigree and betting value of Bubba and Oostie. Horschel and RCB arrive in solid form and a great record here. We knew Kiz was going to suck last week. He usually does after traveling halfway across the world to play his first event in weeks. However, as a former WGC winner, he'll be ready for this. Finally...as you can see we have some faith in Poston this week with his outright and T10 bet making the card. JT's not super long, but ain't short either and word on the street is he's absolutely striping his golf ball right now. ***Disclaimer*** DO NOT tweet us at any point if he has a shitty week and cite this information, unless you never want us to get this type of info again. At the end of the day...it's golf. Shit's crazy sometimes.

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 100% Deposit Bonus They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

 "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Billy Horschel - $8,900 – First off, this is pretty much blasphemy for me to take a Florida Gator the same week as the Georgia/Florida game but I have to admit, after fading him last week where he proved me wrong with a 6th place finish, Billy is looking to me like a great option on this course and at this price. He’s currently projected to be about 10% owned which is a little higher than I would have thought, but I still think he makes for a great tournament play. One of the things we’ve heard from folks on the course this week that was definitely different than years past is that the rough is thicker off the fairways and Driving Accuracy will be much more important than it has been in years past. Horschel has been dialed in off the tee lately ranking top 10 in the field in both Strokes Gained off the Tee and Driving Accuracy. He’s also 11th in Greens in Regulation which has shown to be a very important stat in years past at the Sheshan International. Booooo Gators but I’m in on Mr. Horschel this week. Hao-Tong Li - $7,400 – I may have briefly mentioned Hao-Tong on the pod as a bonus play in this round but I’m liking him more and more as we get closer to lineup lock. He has a ton of experience here playing the last 5 straight years with a T7 in 2016 and a T11 last year. The form has been a little off despite a top 25 at the Alfred Dunhill on the European Tour, but I just think that’s throwing off ownership some as he is projected at around 10% owned in DraftKings GPP’s. The stats are checking out well also when you look at his Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained off the Tee, Greens in Regulation, and he’s also top 10 in Opportunities Gained meaning he’s definitely giving himself some birdie looks. I’ll add also that Li is ranked in the top 15 in the field historically on bentgrass greens so if the putter is hot you might just see the sure to be fan favorite playing in his home country near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. J.T. Poston - $6,700 – We heard from a little birdie that JT is striping it well this week and he really likes the course. I don’t think we’ll see him win, but a top 10 finish is definitely in the cards and that would be all you would need Poston to do at this price range in your DraftKings lineups. JT finished decent last week with a T27 at the ZoZo Championship and is also checking several of the stat boxes for me when I look at Driving Accuracy (8th in the field), Greens in Regulation (13th), and Par 5 scoring (23rd). He’s currently projected at less than 10% owned as well so I think our boy JT should be a great option for you GPP lineups this week and you may even want to think about him if you’re playing cash as well and need a cheap lineup filler.

 "Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

Why are butter knives still standard issue in a silverware set? They are useless for the most part. There’s hardly any perforation so you can’t cut shit with it so all it’s good for really is butter. I think it’s high time the good old and much more versatile steak knife is incorporated in your standard 5 piece table sets. I was thinking back on a couple weeks ago when I wrote about how disappointing my daily trips are to the mailbox and it got me thinking, people need to be writing more personal thank you notes or just notes in general and throwing them in the old U.S. postal service system. Sure it’s a pain in the ass over a text message or email, but it will help out the perhaps millions suffering like me from mailbox depression. Think of all the good you can do in the world and making people happy by just taking a few minutes to write a personal note to someone!  DB I’ll be expecting my note in the mailbox sometime next week. Thanks. The most underrated jelly flavor is apple. Hands down. Also does anybody eat marmalade anymore? Why do I still see it stocked in grocery stores? It’s awful.  That’s all I got this week folks. Good luck and may your screens be green for the HSBC Championships!

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders at Sheshan International (min 10 rounds):

1. Rose 2. Garcia 3. Stenson 4. Poulter 5. McIIroy 6. Casey 7. RCB 8. Matsuyama 9. Fleetwood 10. Spieth

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Sheshan (min 8 rounds): 

1. Wiesbeger 2. Stenson 3. Poulter 4. Garcia 5. Sterne 6. Casey 7. McIIroy 8. Lowry 9. Oosth 10. Willet

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

 1. Na 2. Spieth 3. Kisner 4. Horschel 5. Rose 6. Lowry 7. Hadwin 8. Reed 9. Wallace 10. Putnam

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ course lengths of 7200-7400 yards, bent greens, difficult to hit fairways, and difficult scoring...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.Finau 2. Spieth 3. McIIroy 4. Casey 5. Rose 6. Stenson 7. Bradley 8. Matsuyama 9. Kisner 10. Fleetwood

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways and difficult scoring your top 10 are:

1. Stenson 2. McIIroy 3. Watson 4. Casey 5. Bradley 6. Rose 7. Scott 8. Finau 9. Kokrak 10. Garcia

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.Hadwin 2. Matsyama 3. Conners 4. Casey 5. Hatton 6. Fleetwood 7. Zhang 8. CH3 9. Schauffele 10. Horschel

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Sheshan , so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. McIIroy 2. Garcia 3. Matsuyama 4. Im 5. Scott 6. Casey 7. Watson 8. Poulter 9. Schauffele 10. Reed

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 175-200 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Luiten 2. Reavie 3. Hadwin 4. Kokrak 5. McIIroy 6. Casey 7. Stenson 8. Scott 9. Van Rooyen 10. Jazzy J

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1.Smith 2. Zhang 3. Reavie 4. Rose 5. Oosth 6. Conners 7. Finau 8. Van Rooyen 9. Mickelson 10. Benny An

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Finau 2. Bradley 3. Scott 4. Horschel 5. Molinari 6. Kokrak 7. Luiten 8. Poulter 9. Casey 10. Oosth

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG