WGC Bridgestone Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

WGC Bridgestone

I love this time of year....WGC/Major season/Fedex Cup/Ryder Cup on deck for golf, college football starts practice everywhere this week, MLB trade deadline and division races heating up, Urban Meyers doing his annual defensive tactics of, 'I didn't know they were criminals' at Big Ten media day, etc. Speaking of the Ryder Cup, it's sounding like Tiger, Phil, Bryson are all locks to make the team with Matt Kuchar also a near lock to make the team. I like it and hate it at the same time....Tiger & Bryson are both awesome to watch, but I greatly disagree with the hot 'taeks'  this week on Bryson. These are the personalities that golf DESPERATELY needs....in the days of golden boys like Spieth, Rickie, JT that just can't do any wrong, we should embrace the truly flawed guys like Reed, Bubba, Bryson, Tiger. It's part of what made Tiger so great to watch in his prime, he was either going to eat you alive or show his ass if you just so happened to catch him on a bad day. (great Tiger cussing compilation here that is hilarious). Bryson made a great point in his interview with Mike Tirico yesterday, 'Everyone prepares for that 10 footer to win on the practice green so you can give the Tiger fist pump, but no one practices that tap in for 8 to lose the tournament on the last three holes.' Lets embrace the guys that don't keep every ounce of emotion inside and actually seem to have a pulse and get mad when they lose. We talked about what drove the greats of the game last week and something we certainly left out was the famous quotes from MJ and Jimmy Connors, 'I hate to lose more than I love to win.'A couple news items, Adam Hadwin and Justin Rose have both withdrawn from the WGC Bridgestone, we're down to 71 total players, leh go!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when trying to value one guy against another. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie or Bookmaker to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Not a ton of surprises this week but certainly some nice value to be found. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week: Statistically these two guys are almost identical with one major exception, Molinari is 4th in the field in strokes gained approach while Rahm is 58th out of 71 guys playing this week. BUT, at this point in the event calendar when a lot of the guys playing this week have played over sea at a minimum of 1, generally 2 weeks, I look at total strokes gained much more than usual since the total is still captured on FNGC just not the individual breakdown. When we look at that number Molinari is 3rd in the field verus Rahm at 25th.Phil continues his really mediocre play since mid May as a 12th place finish is his best result in almost 3 months. Kuch hasn't been much better...he did finish 9th at the British but has 3 missed cuts his last 6 events, which BTW since the 2017 Masters he had missed ZERO cuts until the Byron Nelson this year, over an entire year of tournament golf with no missed cuts! Phil currently ranks 29th in total strokes gained the last 24 rounds while Kuch comes in at 31st. I think the books are giving Kuch the edge solely on having better course history here, but if you look closely, last year Kuchar almost LOST strokes T2G at Firestone and just had a hawt putter.Some nice value here on X as he's 600 cheaper this week and is a slight favorite to beat Bubba head to head. I've heard several people say that Bubba has good course history but I would say it's ok at best considering his talent level the last seven years. He does have the one 2nd place finish, but other then that his best finish was 14th in a 70 person no cut event. I generally fade #narrativestreet stuff but I think X-man really wants on this Ryder Cup team, while Bubba already has a spot locked down and has been known to 'check-the-F-out' if he's not in contention. Last 24 rounds total strokes gained X ranks 19th in the field verus Bubba at 28th. Even though Bryson is cheaper this week I actually expected him to be the favorite over Cantlay. But after closer examination Cantlay has been sneaky good tee to green since his missed cut at the Masters. Here are his total strokes gained since 4/14: 8.3, 6.1 -4.8, 11.5, 2.6, 7.7, 8.4, and keep in mind he's lost strokes putting in all but one event. As far as total strokes gained the last 24 rounds, Cantlay is 14th in the field while Bryson is 15th (which also includes his win at the Memorial).I know David is all over Brooks 'Big Balls' Koepka this week, BUT he's def an underdog this week to Tommy 'Black Flag' Fleetwood. Brooks is doing basically what Rahm has been doing....great everywhere except his approach game where he's 54th in the field. Tommy very quietly finished 6th at the RBC last week where he gained strokes in every single category. For the last 24 rounds Fleetwood ranks 4th in total strokes gained while Koepka is just behind him in 6th. If you read the chalk bomb last week we told you to take ALL the Poulters at a plus moneyline in his head to head matchup against Sergio DGAF Garcia. Poulter rebounded really nicely to finish 12th last week while Sergio missed the cut. Once again no one is talking about Poulter and everyone loves Chappell after one good result. Even after you factor in Poulter's 81 at the British, he's still 20th in the field in total strokes gained while Chappell is 58th (out of 71).Just in case you were wondering, yes, Webb is a great value in DFS this week again Leishman as he's $300 cheaper and a -140 head to head favorite. Webb is 16th in the field in total strokes gained while Leishman is 37th. 

THE Chalk Bomb 

So this guy is projected to be owned in the low to mid 20% range this week, but he's primed to bomb a ton of lineups. Let me rattle off his total strokes gained dating back to the Masters:Masters: -4.6RBC: -1.3Valero: +3.6Players: -0.8Memorial: -3St. Jude: -9.8US Open: -4.4Greenbrier: -4.4British Open 10.4For those counting at home, even factoring in a good British Open, this guy has LOST 6.1 strokes to the field since the Masters and ranks 58th out of 71 players in the field in total strokes gained the last 24 rounds. Par 4 scoring is critical this week as we're at a LONG par 70 course, so how does this guy rank over the last year in par 4 scoring? 50th in the field. How about par 5 scoring? 47th in the field. Supposedly he has good course history, but if you look closer, last year he gained 75% of the strokes that he actually gained around the green, which is the least repeatable of the four major categories (BTW he's 61st in the field in strokes gained scrambling). Oh and he's a head to head underdog against a guy that is priced the exact same oh and he loses 0.2 strokes per round on average on bentgrass greens. 

Kevin Chappell, your the chalk bomb!

10 Facts so You Have More in Life Then Death, Taxes, and a Thuggish Ruggish Shirt

1. Tee to Green leaders from last years WGC: 1. Matsuyama 2. JT 3. Rory 4. Molinari 5. Casey 6. Berger 7. Spieth 8. Chappell 9. Steele 10. Hoffman2. Par 4 scoring leaders the last calendar year: 1. Spieth 2. DJ 3. Rahm 4. Cook 5. JT 6. Fowler 7. Landry 8. Stenson 9. Webb 10. Barn Rat3. Par 5 scoring leaders the last calendar year: 1. DJ 2. Fleetwood 3. Cantlay 4. Rahm 5. Rory 6. Finau 7. Casey 8. Grace 9. Phil 10. Noren4. Top 10 in GIR's hit at Firestone: 1. Stenson 2. Si Woo 3. Tiger 4. Rory 5. Fisher 6. Xander 7. Fitzpatrick 8. Bubba 9. Casey 10. Grillo5. In 2016 all 3 players priced 11k and up finished in the top 3, in 2017 zero of the 4 players priced above 11k finished inside the top 4. At the WGC Firestone there has historically been a sweet spot in the 9700-8800 range.6. Top 10 in course driving accuracy: 1. Fleetwood 2. Molinari 3. Stenson 4. Kuchar 5. Kodaira 6. Rahm 7. ZJ 8. Tiger 9. Stanley 10. Steele7. Top 10 in my own personal model: 1. TIGER 2. Casey 3. Fowler 4. Rory 5. Finau 6. Molinari 7. Cantlay 8. Day 9. Rahm 10. Hoffman8. Top 10 total strokes gained leaders the last 24 rounds: 1. DJ (shocker) 2. Molinari 3. Fleetwood 4. Stenson 5. Koepka 6. Rory 7. Day 8. Reed 9. Casey 10. Finau9. Top 10 total strokes gained leaders the last 24 rounds sub 8k: 1. Grillo! 2. Bryson 3. Webb 4. Oosthuizen 5. X-man 6. Poutler 7. Adam Scott 8. Kevin Na 9. Branden Grace 10. Benny An10. Top 10 in my recent form rankings: 1. Molinari (shocker) 2. Tiger! 3. Noren 4. Adam Scott? 5. Cantlay 6. Day 7. Oosthuizen (he's played surprisingly well last 4 events) 8. Rory 9. Fowler 10. ZJ.....notice a couple big names not on there.

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Drive the Green ($5), Albatross ($12), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar