The Wells Fargo Championship 2024 Chalk 💣

The Charlotte forecast is calling for some gusty breezes and occasional thunderstorms over Thursday/Friday making the first couple of rounds a bit tricky to predict. With rain expected Friday afternoon, there may be an advantage for the PM/AM wave if the later groups on Friday are unable to complete their rounds.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Justin Thomas -139 ($8500) vs. Cam Young +109 ($8800)

Let’s start with a pair of big names in the $8k range where JT is a heavy favorite in a 72-hole matchup over Cam Young despite a $300 discount in DraftKings DFS.

Quail Hollow is familiar territory for both of these guys, but Young has the highest recent finish — a runner-up in 2022.

Both of these guys are among the most popular DFS plays this week as according to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, JT is expected to be in over 18% of lineups while Cam is closer to 16%

Corey Conners -130 ($7800) vs. Brian Harman +107 ($8000)

Moving down the price board a bit, the sharp oddsmakers have Corey Conners as a big favorite over Brian Harman even though the Canadian is $200 cheaper.

As for experience on this course, both players have at least four prior starts at Quail Hollow. Each man also has some strong recent performances here with multiple top 20 finishes over the last three years.

Conners is the much chalkier play per our ownership projections. His 14% projected ownership is double that of Harman who is trending around 7%.

Sepp Straka -122 ($7300) vs. Shane Lowry +101 ($7600)

Lastly, there might be an edge going with Sepp Straka over Shane Lowry when rounding out your DFS lineups in the $7k range. The Austrian is a big favorite over his 2023 Ryder Cup teammate even though Lowry is the more expensive player.

Both Europeans have ample history at Quail Hollow… but none of it is good. In the seven most recent starts between them, neither player has finished better than T34.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, Lowry is the more popular player at this price point at roughly 9% ownership — making Straka a nice under-the-radar option at around 6% if you want to tail the bookies.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We got back to our winning (or should I say losing) ways last week at the Byron Nelson where Jordan Spieth did as he’s done all year, and that is: suck.

His missed cut was by far the worst result of any of the highest-owned players last week, and it’s yet another poor performance for Spieth who now has just two made cuts in his last six starts.

While I’d love to fade him again this week, his bad run of form has finally caught the public’s attention as he’s being picked in just 7% of DFS lineups this week as opposed to his 18% ownership from the Byron Nelson

So luckily for Spieth, he no longer meets our minimum threshold of 15% DFS ownership according to our Discord ownership projections. So who will it be this week?

As the host venue for the Wells Fargo Championship for well over a decade, we should all be pretty familiar with the challenge that Quail Hollow will present this week. Long and demanding, this is routinely one of the toughest stops on the PGA TOUR, and we can expect more of the same even if conditions have been softened up by rain early in the week.

Our data analysts at Bet the Number have identified some statistics that are key indicators of success at this particular course. As the third longest course these pros will face all year, prowess with the driver will be important this week, and that’s not good news for our Chalk Bomb.

Over his last 30 rounds, this player ranks 58th in the 69-man field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Interestingly, the BTN team has also identified Left Rough Tendency as an important metric with the danger lurking left of many of the fairways at QH, and this player ranks 60th in the field in that category over the last 30 rounds.

One last note on length: we can expect to see plenty of long-range approaches into many of the par 4s and 5s this week, so accuracy with the mid-long irons will be almost as important as strength off the tee. Looking at approaches from the 175-250 yard range, this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks 48th in the field in SG: Approach from that distance.

While the recent data points to fading this guy, I want to make it clear — this is a ballsy call. If recent performances at Quail Hollow are any indication, this pick could come back to bite me in the ass. With a win and a T8 among his three most recent starts here, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him back in the winner’s circle.

But as a slight underdog to similarly-priced Collin Morikawa in a 72-hole matchup, I think I’d rather have that Cal Golden Bear than this one.

So coming in at almost 20% projected DFS ownership and a $9400 price point, I’m willing to risk it with Max Homa as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I don’t why people get so excited about sweet potato fries. They suck and are terrible fry posers if you ask me.

There’s one sure fire way to no you’re in a rich persons house. It takes forever to find the kitchen trash can.

I don’t know why every apple flavored candy needs to be green apple. I wouldn’t mind a Gala Apple jolly rancher. Or how about a Honeycrisp Now & Later.

Ask yourself this. Have you ever seen a Chinese Food commerical?

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. May your screens be green and we all bend over our bookies. This is my prayer for us. Bome!