Wells Fargo HP 2023

HP 🍑 for Wells Fargo

May 02, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.The Wells Fargo Championship has returned to beautiful Quail Hollow outside of Charlotte, North Carolina with freshly minted elevated event status for 2023 after a 1 year hiatus as the course was prepping to host the 2022 Presidents Cup. The field of course is extremely strong with the exception of Rahm and Scheffler who have instead decided to take their talents to Oak Hill for early PGA Championship Prep. That said, the stars will be out this week and we're excited to see the worlds best take on the difficult Green Mile at Quail Hollow. If you are looking for an all encompassing course and event preview, here is a link our newest TJ member Nate Moore's Rundown for the 2023 Mexico Open .Make sure to check it out for a deep dive on the event, but here are some bullet points to keep in mind when starting your research this week:

  • DataGolf has Quail Hollow ranked as the 6th most predicative course in regards to course history.

  • Overseeded Bermuda Grass greens are slightly below average in size and deceptively fast. We see a lot of missed short putts here.

  • Fairways are relatively narrow but there is not a huge penalty for misses, leading most players to pound Driver consistently off the tee.

  • Latest redesign work by Tom Fazio in 2016 has since seen this golf course play more difficult in terms of scoring average and was intended to beef this place up to showcase as a future Championship venue.

  • This course ranks 4th toughest in terms of average score on regular PGA Tour venues.

  • Past 5 winners include McIlroy (2X), Day, Homa, and James Hahn!?

  • Althought the routing was flipped for the Presidents Cup, we still saw that event reward similar skillsets that go well here annually, Total Driving and great long iron play.

  • It's important to get off to a good start. The first three holes are all par 4's between 450-500 total yards. Essentially, half the holes on the entire golf course are par 4's within this range of total yards depending on which tees the play per day.

  • Quality lag putting is important for success, only 2 courses on the regular schedule rank more difficult in putting from outside of 15 feet.

  • It's ultimately a test of can you hit the difficult, longish shot over and over again with success much like Torrey Pines asks of the player.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for Quail Hollow:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation min 16 rounds:

Streb, McIlroy, Cink, Day, Fowler, Glover, Watney, Rodgers

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation min 16 rounds:

Kirk, Kuchar, Bradley, Hadwin, Scott, Walker, Johnson, Holmes

DataGolf Draftkings Optimal Lineup:Day, Thomas, Young, Hatton, Clark, An

In Lieu of a Sleepers Video (DB's in Charlotte)...

DB's covering the tournament and delivering some goods to the Nut Hut this week as he's media at Quail Hollow for the WF Championship.Check out this interview with Player+Caddie combo, Austin Smotherman & Austin Gaugert. Smothdaddy had quite the week in Mexico & these 2 are just some of the best guys we've met on the PGA TOUR. This is part 1 of our convo with the boys about their own stats, data nerd stuff and his best friend...Bryson Dechambeau.Click below & see what Austin has to say to DB about his disdain for Bryson.

1. Strokes Gained Approach from last 24 x last 50 rounds weighted with field strength : 1. Finau  2. Schauffele  3. Cantlay  4. Morikawa  5. Gerard  6. Tosti  7. Woodland  8. Spieth  9. Martin  10. Fowler2. Rounds Gained Putting Leaders at Quail Hollow (min 10 rounds) : 1. Hahn  2. Streelman  3. Streb  4. Lingmerth  5. Fowler  6. Todd  7. Finau  8. Martim  9. Walker  10. Herman3. Leaders in Total Driving over the past 50 Rounds Played :  1. Mitchell  2. Grant  3. Hovland  4. Buckley  5. Im  6. Gordon  7. Cantlay  8. Lowry  9. Young  10. Morikawa4. Leaders in Proximity to hole from 175+ yards on approach shots in last 36 Rounds: 1. Finau  2. Woodland  3. Morikawa  4. Reavie  5. Hardy  6. McIlroy  7. Schauffele  8. Moore  9. Smotherman  10. Bradley5. Strokes Gained Approach Leaders on long courses over 7,400 yards with historically difficult scoring conditions : 1. McIlroy  2. Conners  3. Moore  4. Homa  5. Hovland  6. Knox  7. Thomas  8. Bradley  9. Woodland  10. Nesmith6. Leaders in Driving Distance Gained on the field in last 36 rounds played : 1. McIlroy  2. Champ  3. List  4. Mullinax  5. Holmes  6. Woodland  7. Young  8. Clark  9. Mitchell  10. Burns7. Leaders in Approach/Lag Putting over the last 50 rounds: 1. Armour  2. Bhatia  3. Griffin  4. Finau  5. Lowry  6. Gerard  7. Moore  8. Alexander  9. Kirk  10. Spieth8. Leaders in Opportunities Gained in last 24 rounds : 1. Young  2. McIlroy  3. List  4. Riley  5. Martin  6. Hovland  7. Gerard  8. Schauffele  9. Clark  10. Stevens9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Value Given Salary via DataGolf:  1. Young  2. Clark  3. Woodland  4. An  5. Hatton  6. Thomas  7. McIlroy  8. Im  9. Moore  10. Rodgers10. Datagolf Leaders in Postive Adjusted Course Fit for this week: 1. Champ  2. Grant  3. Tosti  4. Cone  5. Riley  6. List  7. Deneen  8. McIlroy  9. Brehm  10. Young

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