Wells Fargo Chalk Bomb 23

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The wind looks to be down this week and weather reports are great. The course has received a ton of rain this year though. With DB and Pat on site, I'm sure they will have a ton of great info on course conditions tonight!As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Jordan Spieth -172 ($9,600) vs. Max Homa +142 ($9,400)

In our first matchup we have two players priced relatively even in DFS but it's become clear the head to head market is in strong favor of Spieth. Jordan opened around -135 before being bet up to the current price of -172.It's fair to call into question some of the recent form for Homa while Spieth has been on quite a tear lately. DataGolf has their predictive odds at Spieth -132 for what it's worth as they often take into account more long term form and course history in their analysis.It does appear as if Spieth will be the higher owned player at around 17% while Homa is checking in at 13% in the Nut Hut research center. With Homa looking to defend his title, albeit from a different course, it provides a unique opportunity if you want some action on the dog!

Jason Day +100 ($9,000) vs. Sam Burns -120 (8,600)

Here is a fun matchup for numerous reasons but provides the opportunity to grab the favorite in the head to head market at a $400 price discount in DFS formats.Sammy Burns actually opened as the underdog at +108 odds but has taken steady action up the point of his current price at -120. He's a highly volatile option normally but has produced a consistent run lately with 5 consecutive top 30 finishes which includes his win at the Match Play.Ownership projections in the nut hut for both players are level, so if you are inclined to trust the betting markets and sharp books, there appears to be potential value on Burns here.

Tommy Fleetwood -120 ($8,000) vs. Shane Lowry +100 ($8,100)

This is an intriguing matchups as the we have seen the sharp market making books self correct most recently. After opening the line at these exact odds, the books took heavy 1 sided action on Fleetwood which vaulted him up to -145 before we saw substantial buy back on Lowry as the dog.You have to wonder if this was potentially a setup by sharp bettors. DataGolf has this matchup projected dead even.Over the last 36 rounds, Lowry has been the more solid player Tee to Green but is really in the midst of a bad putting run. Tommy is projected to be around 11% owned while Lowry is only 7%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. I'll tell you what, the chalk bomb is easily the most torturing piece of content I have ever done haha. Watching a player that you typically love win an event while deeply rooting against him is an agonizing experience. We'll take it on the chin like we always do and look to bounce back this week as Milton was able to prevail in Mexico last week. Good on ya'!Let's face it, last week was a tough one. There were basically only two options for the CB and I was scared to death to make it Jon Rahm. This week, we are right back with an elevated status event and plenty of bears in the woods to poke (Dillon Brooks joke*).At it's core, I do my best to assess the chalk bomb piece each week much like assessing the stock market. It's no surprise that the majority of players gaining popularity and ownership are playing well, but who's stock has been overly inflated? I'm seeking players at their highs, preforming above what I believe to be their baseline, that in my opinion make risky plays and are worthy of a potential fade in DFS. There's the formula.That said, I always like to support my candidates with some statistical analysis. DataGolf ranks Quail Hollow as the 6th most predicative in terms of course history of all tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule. With this year garnering elevated status, many players are required* to show up and play who may normally skip this event. I'm looking an CB candidates who don't have much course history at Quail Hollow to rely upon this week.We think of this course as such a Driver heavy and long iron course, which it is. But I think the prevailing narrative is underselling the importance of putting here. When Max Homa won here, he gained 10 strokes putting. When Rory and JT won at Quail, they both gained over 7 strokes with the putter.The greens, while average in size, are very deceptive by nature. The Bermuda grass is very grainy this time of year, particularly in May after a rainy April. The Chalk Bomb player this week has lost more than 1.5 strokes Putting in 5 of the last 6 shotlink data tournaments they have played in. Over their last 5 events, they have averaged an abysmal -2.2 strokes Putting and -.05 strokes ARG per event!The talent this player possesses will undoubtedly find them holding a trophy soon, but anyone who struggles this much putting week to week is also going to lay a few duds along the way. This is a course which could indeed showcase their strengths on paper, but you are paying an absolute premium price in terms of taking on elevated ownership percentages if you want to click their name in a large GPP contest.This is the third time I have written up this player as the CB this season. Both previous times have resulted in finishes outside the top 50 while still holding top 5 ownership numbers. We are going back to well once again, particularly after last week to a comfort zone for the chalk bomb and choosing a player who has just become far too popular to play in DFS. Welcome back sir, at the second highest ownership this week (25%) and $8,700 in DFS, Cam Young, you are the chalk bomb!

Why is it that hot coffee is delicious, and iced coffee is also delicious, but hot coffee that gets cold is absolutely disgusting?Rice is completely acceptable in a tortilla but not a sandwich. I tell you what, Pandas seem like a really nice and cuddly animal by appearance, but something tells me they're mean as hell and hate cuddling. 5 star ratings are given out way too nonchalantly these days. Not all things are 5 stars ok folks. Stop being so damn generous with your stars. Unless it's a review of our podcast. Obviously. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the Wells Fargo Championship at mint condition Quail Hollow Club. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!