Wells Fargo Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Wells Fargo Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

 This Week's Tour Stop Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow 

Hope You Enjoyed Your Break

Cus we just entered the dog days of DFS golf with NO more breaks until the conclusion of the tour championship on August 25th. I was just looking over the schedule again and we do have a fairly weak 4 event stretch between the US Open & British, but time will tell. I was also trying to figure out what Tiger's schedule was going to be, and I honestly think he's going to go PGA, Memorial, US Open, British Open as his next 4 events #19MajorsWatch. Anywho, things to know this week:3 of the last 4 winners at Quail Hollow either lost, or almost lost strokes on approach shots, which is crazy considering that approach shots generally account for 35% of all your scoring. At last years Wells Fargo, 13 of the top 15 players gained AT LEAST 4 strokes putting for the week, and the top 5 finishers all gained at least 2 full strokes off the tee. Now remember that you don't have to be a bomber to gain strokes off the tee (Jim Furyk still gains strokes) but the longer hitters certainly have an advantage. The 175-200 & 200+ yardage buckets for approach shots is far and away the top 2 this week, so I would put extra weight on those.  Quail Hollow is almost always the toughest course to get approach shots close to the hole. In fact since 2008 it has ranked no worse than sixth-toughest in that particular season in approach shot proximity, and has been the most difficult such course on tour five times in that span according to the 15th club. To put it another way, the average GIR proximity to the hole at Quail Hollow is 34 feet, but what does that mean? Well, it means that even if you hit the green in regulation, your average putting distance is on average 5.5 feet FURTHER from hole, every hole. That means to win here, you will generally have to make more feet in putts than at any other stop on tour (so think about good putters for you simple minded). This is a rare tour stop where strokes gained putting actually has a positive backtest. It's why the John Senden's & Tim Wilkinson's of the world can play here, lose strokes tee to green, and still nab a top 15 finish. The last major thing in my research this week was how important par 5 scoring was. Again you don't HAVE to be a bomber to score on par 5's (Webb is actually a pretty good par 5 scorer despite only averaging 290 off the tee, which believe it or not is short in this day & age), but as always #distance is always helpful in golf.  

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Hideki vs Webb 

Webb and Hideki should both be popular this week and I actually like both in cash as they 'should' have fairly high floors. I'm still not sure if people realize the ball striking form Hideki has recaptured after his mostly lost year due to injury. He's #1 in the field in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds, even better than Rory. We've discussed this in previous weeks of the chalk bomb, but Hideki also has one of the best short games on tour (not putting, just around the green). His last 24 rounds he's 6th! in the field in strokes gained around the greens, as always it just boils down to the putter for him (& unfortunately bermuda is his worst surface). Since the Farmers in Janurary, Hideki has gained strokes in every single event off the tee, approach, and around the greens. I'm not sure if you've heard this all week, but Webb is a MEMBER at Quail Hollow...which means he probably plays like 2 extra rounds a year here. Webb is an interesting case because he's played well the last 2 events, but if you look at his 2019 season so far you'll notice that he's actually lost strokes putting in 5 out of 8 events. In 2018 Webb was 5th on tour in strokes gained putting over the course of the season, so I would expect his poor numbers so far to regress to the mean (bermuda is his best surface by a large margin). If his ownership is sub 10% I think there's really nice value with Webb. 

MATCHUP 2

Rory vs. Day

Rory will almost certainly be the chalk de jour with a stiff 14.3% odds to win, great form, with great history. It's gonna be one of those weeks were you have to pony up and either have 100% Rory or 0%. Rory certainly had a disappointing Masters, as every aspect of his game was just a hair off. He still gained strokes off the tee, but missed more fairways then he should have. This lead him to only hit 62% of his greens in reg, meaning he probably broke even or lost strokes on approach, and only got up & down 40% of the time that he did miss the green which is well below his 60% average. He currently has implied odds to finish in the top 10 60% of the time, which is probably fair, but when your staring 30%+ ownership in the face, I'll always lean towards the fade (he's def not the chalk bomb though). Moving on to Day, this course was built for him. You have to have distance, check, be a par 5 scorer, check, and be a really good putter, check. I know we said it in the opening, but Quail Hollow has one of the largest avgerage GIR proximity to the holes on tour. Meaning that even when you do hit the green, your still going to be left with long(er) putts, the more feet in putts you have to make, the more it favors good putters. Day is expected to win head to head 42.5% of the time, just sayin!

MATCHUP 3

Phil vs. Finau

I get it, Phil has arguably the best course history in the field, it's alllllllmost better than Rory's. And the two times the Chalk Bomb has been the most wrong, Phil was the bomb, so please bare that in mind. HOWEVER, Phil has increasing become the Larry Fitzgerald of DFS golf. His 2018 season also started very well, with the Wells Fargo actually being his last top 10 of the season (in May). He tailed off pretty hard after that though, and if you remember yours truly made the argument that he shouldn't be on the Ryder Cup team (history proved that take correct). Lets look at ole Phils strokes gained tee to green numbers since his win at Pebble: +1, +0.7, +0.2, -2....not exactly dominate stuff with 1 stroke gained being the high water mark. Also keep in mind his 4th place finishes in 15' & 16' were almost 100% putting driven (he's currently riding a 3 event streak of losing strokes putting). So play Tony right?? Nope, don't like him either. He certainly fits the bomber bill, but it's hard to argue that Quail Hollow 'fits his eye.' Yes, he's made all 4 cuts, but his best finish is 16th, & the other 3 times he hit less than 57% of his greens in reg. He also has one of the worst bermuda grass putting splits in the field. 

MATCHUP 4

Wise vs. An

Wise is another perfect scenario that I love to fade in DFS, I refer to it as the 'baseball prospect theory.' Everyone just sees the 1 attempt, 1 2nd place next to his name, no one has seen him fail here, so they discount the probability of it. It's why everyone always clamors for the AAA guy or the sexy 5 star backup QB (hello UGA fans) because we haven't seen them fail, yet. He did play well at the Masters, I'll give him that, but the rest of his 2019 season as been pretty forgettable. He's lost strokes tee to green in 5 out of 8 event, and has really only gained strokes twice, at the Masters & WGC Mexico. There's no doubt he has the talent to turn it on at any moment, but he's the kind of guy I love to target on weeks where he's 5% owned....not 20%. In Benny An's case, I want to play him, I really do, but I just can't bring myself to do it. He's been really freakin good tee to green almost all season, and he's been really freakin bad with his putter, losing strokes in every single event, and losing more than 4 strokes 3 separate times! He's fine in cash because his ball striking gives him a really nice floor, but I just don't see enough upside in a week where you have to putt well (only TWO people in the top 15 of last years Wells Fargo gained less than 4 strokes putting for the week). 

MyBookie leads the way in Golf betting, NFL, NBA, MLB & even betting on the next Pope, Justin Bieber's best man & more!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

  • Dating back to the API his strokes gained tee to green numbers are: +12.4, +2.7, +2.9, (-0.1).....trending the wrong direction

  • He has gained 18.2 strokes putting his last 3 event, not only has he never done that before, his 2nd best 3 event run is 11.2 strokes, back in 2014 (he then went on to lose strokes putting the next 3 event

  • Just to really make the point, for his career he has averaged negative 0.3 strokes gained putting per event 

  • The GIR % here at Quail Hollow is lower than the average tour stop meaning you'll need to get up & down more often. This guy has lost strokes around the green in 5 straight events plus he ranks 146th in the field in strokes gained around the green his last 50 rounds

  • Strokes gained off the tee also takes on significantly more importance, this guy has lost strokes off the tee in 2 of his last 4 events

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on fast greens

  • On difficult courses he loses strokes against his baseline

  • He's played here 7 times, missing the cut 4 of those, with a best finish of 23rd 

  • Starting with 2018, here are his strokes gained tee to green numbers at Quail Hollow: (-4.5), 0.3, (-1.7), 0.3, (-1.1), (-3.6)...thats a high water mark of +0.3 for those of you playing at home

  • This is his 3rd highest DFS price since the start of the 2018 season

  • In 3 ball betting, he's event money against PGA Tour stars Adam Chenk and Sangmoon Bae

  • Despite having a top 15 salary, he's only +350 for a top 10 finish. So the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 10 are 78.78%

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 20.3% this week....Jason Kokrak, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Wells Fargo:

1. Molinari 2. List 3. Wise 4. Grillo 5. Fowler 6. Day 7. Watney 8. Stanley 9. Mcllroy 10. Mitchell

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at Quail Hollow (Min 8 rounds): (a lot of the top guys have not played enough rounds)

1. Josh Teater (though he hasn't played here since 14') 2. McIlroy 3. Steele 4. Perez 5. Cink 6. Stenson 7. Watney 8. Ortiz 9. Sabbatini 10. Casey

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. McCarthy 2. Burns 3. Thompson 4. Day 5. CH3 6. Lindheim 7. Wagner 8. Malnati 9. Hossler 10. Perez

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, difficult scoring, & over 7400 yards.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Rory 2. Phil 3. Fowler 4. Walker 5. Steele 6. Casey 7. Day 8. Rose 9. List 10. Willett ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Finau 2. Perez 3. Webb 4. Reed 5. Senden 6. Vaughn Taylor 7. Castro 8. Streb 9. Berger 10. ZJ 

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 175-200 yardage bucket, and 200+ last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Hideki 2. Fowler 3. Keegan 4. Stenson 5. Niemann 6. Ben An 7. Kokrak 8. Hadley 9. Swafford 10. Berger

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Quail Hollow, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Im 2. Mcllroy 3. Day 4. List 5. Ben An 6. CH3 7. Hoon-Lee 8. Stenson 9. Tringale 10. Lebioda

8.

 S

trokes gained on the par 5's rated the highest in importance at Quail Hollow so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 5s:

1. Rory 2. Woodland 3. Casey 4. Day 5. Finau 6. Im 7. Rose 8. Champ 9. Ortiz 10. Sabbatini

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Rory 2. Lovelady 3. Kokrak 4. Schenk 5. Rose 6. Bradley 7. Swafford 8. Hideki 9. Vegas 10. Ben An

10.

Average strokes gained per round leaders at Quail Hollow (all sample sizes included)

 

: 1. Rory 2. Casey 3. Rose 4. Dahmen 5. Phil 6. Harry English 7. Reed 8. Uihlein 9. Finau 10. Fowler

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

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