The Dog Days of Golf

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

We're entering my favorite time of the year for playing golf, and the longest stretch of PGA events on the calendar. We have (maybe) one off week in late July for the Olympics, but outside of that, we'll march on every week until the Tour Championship on September 5th. We've got the final 3 Majors of the year, one invitational, and a 1st timer event all in the next 10 weeks. Buckle up. Things to know for this week: 3 of the last 5 winners at Quail Hollow either lost, or almost lost strokes on approach shots, which is crazy considering that approach shots generally account for 35% of all your scoring. At the 2018 Wells Fargo, 13 of the top 15 players gained AT LEAST 4 strokes putting for the week, and the top 5 finishers all gained at least 2 full strokes off the tee. At the 2019 Wells Fargo, 7 of the top 8 gained AT LEAST 2 strokes putting, AND gained AT LEAST 2 strokes off the tee. Now, remember that you don't have to be a bomber to gain strokes off the tee (Webb, Ancer, Harman are all 'shorter' players but they all gain strokes off the tee) but the longer hitters certainly have an advantage. The 175-200 & 200+ yardage buckets for approach shots are far and away the top 2 this week, so I would put extra weight on those.  Quail Hollow is almost always the toughest course to get approach shots close to the hole. In fact since 2008 it has ranked no worse than sixth-toughest in that particular season in approach shot proximity and has been the most difficult such course on tour five times in that span according to the 15th club. To put it another way, the average GIR proximity to the hole at Quail Hollow is 34 feet, but what does that mean? Well, it means that even if you hit the green in regulation, your average putting distance is on average 5.5 feet FURTHER from the hole, every hole. That means to win here, you will generally have to make more feet in putts than at any other stop on tour. This is a rare tour stop where strokes gained putting actually has a positive backtest. It's why the Vaughn Taylor's & Pat Perez's of the world can play here, lose strokes tee to green, and still nab a top 15 finish. The last major thing in my research this week was how important par 5 scoring was. Again you don't HAVE to be a bomber to score on par 5's (Brian Harman is actually a pretty good par 5 scorer despite only averaging 292 off the tee, which believe it or not is short in this day & age), but as always #distance is always helpful in golf. 

Quick weather note. I'm only about 2 hours from Charlotte, & I can tell you the wind has been extremely volatile the last couple of days & it looks to stay that way through the week. Thursday looks fairly calm, but those 30mph gusts are going to be real on Friday. I would give any tiebreakers to very early Friday tee times. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance of the course fit. Like we just discussed above, QH is a very unique fit. The driving accuracy is almost 10% lower than tour average, the GIR% is 4% lower than tour average, the scrambling is lower than tour average, the average driving distance is WAY higher than tour average, & the GIR proximity to the hole is WAY higher. Translation: it's a hard course, and you be better be driving it well, & putting well.  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Rahm vs. X

Rahm -132 vs. Schauffele +113

These are probably my 2 favorite guys up top, with Bryson a close 3rd. Getting the 'top' right is always the most important decision of the week, so let's get to it. Getting back to what we described above, both of these boys are 2 of the most elite total drivers of the golf ball. Over the last 50 rounds, Rahm is 2nd in the field in strokes gained off the tee, & Xander is 15th. Both guys also display elite putting with the exact kind of putting upside needed to contend at Quail Hollow. Rahm has never played in the Wells Fargo at QH, & Xander has only played it once in 2018, so the course history followers will be off the case this week. Especially if they are taking their 2017 #'s into account which was played at Eagle Point. To boot it's well documented that both guys enjoy difficult golf courses. Xander's US Open track record is nearly unmatched in his young career, and Jon Rahm gains just over 1.5 strokes per round on the field in difficult playing conditions. While Rahm certainly has the DFS 'value' this week since he's a H2H favorite over everyone...the sportsbooks have Xander ranked 3rd. At a projected 8-9% ownership this week, that looks quite juicy for Mr. X, who was one very bad shot away from putting real pressure on Hideki at the Masters. 

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MATCHUP 2

Fowler vs. HV3

 Fowler +113 vs. HV3 -132

My oh my, what a fall from grace for ole Rickie. One day your top 5'ing every major, the next you find yourself a H2H underdog against HV3. Let's start with the good news for Rickie: 1. At the Valero, it was the 1st time he's gained strokes in every category since August of 2020. 2. It was the 1st time he gained strokes on approach shots in 6 events 3. It was only the 2nd time in 10 events he had gained strokes putting 4. He owns the best course history in the field and is the site of his 1st PGA win, something that you would think brings him happy thoughts. 5. Since his win in 2012, he's been above field average in GIR's hit at QH 100% of the time 6. He historically has played his best golf in tough, windy conditions. For HV3, HE'S A NORTH CAROLINA BOY, as DB would say. He's shown flashes of his upside in every statistical category the last couple of years but just can't seem to put it all together in one week. Always one of the longer players on tour, HV3 often has shown the upside to gain 4+ strokes off the tee any given week. When he's at his best, he's also routinely gained 4+ strokes on approach shots. While his strokes gained data doesn't really do it justice, he's been WELL above field average in GIR's hit 4 of his last 5 events. And while he's a streaky putter, he's found something recently gaining 1.4 strokes on average in his last 5 events. 

MATCHUP 3

Tringale vs. Im

Tringale -121 vs. Im +103

Well, it looks like the days of Tringale +300 to top 20 free money are over as he finds himself a -121 FAVORITE over the more expensive bermuda God Sunjae Im. As you've probably noticed, I've written about, and played Tringale on an almost weekly basis since the start of the wrap-around season. He has completely transformed his game over the last 18 months with the ball striking consistency being the most impressive. He's gained strokes off the tee in 8 of his last 9 events, he's gained strokes on approach shots in 11 of his last 12, and has averaged 1.2 strokes gained putting per event over his last 10. And while he doesn't have any real high finishes at QH, he's made the cut 5 of 7 times. As I wrote last week, Sungjae continues to be a Byrson Jr, at least statistically, gaining lots of strokes off the tee, and lots of stroking putting, but has been wildly inconsistent with both his iron game and around the greens. He of course completely flipped the script last week losing strokes off the tee & putting while gaining strokes on approach and around the green. He's somehow maintained his ridiculously unsustainable putting pace on bermuda greens averaging over half a stroke gained per round. With the way he's played the last 4 months, last week notwithstanding, QH should be an almost perfect fit. 

Other interesting lines:Schauffele -117 vs. Hovland +100Simpson -133 vs. Finau +114Cink -107 vs. Glover -108Cantlay -130 vs. Zalatoris +112Jones -157 vs. Dahmen +134Wise -158 vs. Mitchell +135Streelman -119 vs. Wallace +102Mickelson -107 vs. Hadwin -108

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He has 1 top 10 in the last 10 months

• Bermuda is far & away his worst putting surface

• He's a head to head underdog to 2 people cheaper than him

• He's also a head to head underdog to Kevin Streelman, who is projected to have 1/4th of his ownership

• For his career, he's almost lost strokes total in windy conditions

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 62nd in opps gained

• In the 2 main approach shot buckets, he's 139th in the field in proximity

• On courses over 7400 yards he's 46th in the field in DK points scored

• Dating back to the restart last year, he's lost total strokes in 50% of his events played

• He loses strokes against his baseline on difficult to hit fairway courses

At 18.4% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (2nd highest) Matt Wallace, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

The shit has really hit the fan this week at TJ HQ. DB here filling in for Pat. Me (Rona) and Ben and Pat with other shitty family matters hitting this week has led us to this point.

It took Rona to get me to start watching Game of Thrones for the 1st time. I started in Sunday and can't stop. What a show. How do any of you call yourselves my friends having not told me about the abundance of incredible kills as well as Strokes Gained: T&A running rampant! 

Does anyone have any tips on training a nearly 1 year old dog to stop shitting in my house? Can you imagine shitting daily, without saying a word or ever apologizing, in total disrespect for your caretaker despite your warm bed, food and water?

If you've made it all the way to this point of the email, do me a solid and give me more good bingeworthy shows or movies to watch whilst I'm living this quarantine life. Thanks. See ya!

Not much of a pontificate, but it's all I got on late notice with Covid brain. Hopefully, all the shit drops from the fan next week and TJ HQ can get back to full strength all around. Thank you all for your support and understanding. Rona be damned!