Waste Management 22 Chalk Bomb

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For the first time in 2022, we have a wave advantage that appears rather clear as of Wednesday at noon writing this. The AM/PM wave is going to have a real battle on Thursday morning with cooler temps and very blustery conditions with gusts in the 30s. If this forecast holds up, we could see a 2 to 3 shot advantage for the PM/AM wave.Remember, this could change...the wind could migrate to be all day on Thursday or later in the day on Thursday. Balls in the air at 715am local time in Phoenix. It may be wise to remain flexible with your player pool or betting plays until the last possible minute.AM Times = 715 to 905amPM Times = 1140 to 130pm 

Power +121 vs. Henley -142

I mean...even as a Henley fan this week, the spread on this bad boy looked like a Megan THEE Stallion music video. Henley's a favorite on all 3 books I looked at against Power and Corey Conners. But even more shocking than that...he's a toss up on all books against Sam Burns. And that line hasn't budged since opening.

Henley opened as a -122 favorite over Seamus, but the gap is getting wider as H2H bettors start going full steam ahead the Henley train. Course history is obviously in Henley's favor as Power's only had 1 crack at TPC Scottsdale, but damn...there aren't too many playing better than Seamus at the moment. 

Henley's shaping up to be the more popular player this week in DFS, and I do like him. But, I'd hammer the plus money on the red hot Power and will likely end up with some Power shares for the first time in weeks if he remains in that 11 to 12% range in DFS.

Hideki -148 vs. Xander +126

I loved Hideki on the podcast, and the books and H2H bettors are in strong agreement. Hideki opened as and remains a strong favorite against Xander, Spieth and Scottie Scheffler. Yet, Scheffler and Xander are projected to be higher owned and Jordan is inching close to the same ownership projection as Hideki at around 15%.

15% is no sleeper, but for a guy like Hideki...as hot as he's been...with 2 wins here in the last 5 years...I'll own him at like 40% in GPPs. I like Xander a good bit here, but I'll gladly pay up for a 15% Hideki. Who knows...I could be the one steaming the Deki lines...?

Berger -183 vs. Finau +155

Ol Tony Finau gon have Pat doin the Jackson Mahomes before you can say, "twatwaffle!" This one had me shook though considering Berger's "injury" situation the last 2 weeks. -183 is MASSIVE! What do the H2H bettors and/or books know that we don't? 

Tony's also a +128 dog to Burns at -149 and he's a coin toss across multiple books against Brooks Koepka. Most of the Finau lines have opened and stayed around the same, but the Burns line has gone increasingly towards the Burns side over the last couple of hours.

Unfortunately, I couldn't find any Finau vs Gooch lines (nod to the podcast bet...if you don't know what I'm talking about, then shame on you). 

You're certainly getting a lower priced Finau than we're used to seeing at $8.9K in DFS, but it still seems as if not many want to risk the biscuit given his form since the FedEx Playoffs. He and Koepka are projected around 8-10%, Burns is around 15% and Berger's all over the place, but it seems most are avoiding the Berger situation. 

I wouldn't touch Finau in DFS, but he is tempting at +155 against a potentially injured Berger. Finau should be the perfect course fit type for TPC Scottsdale, but the form and even spotty record here seems to have H2H bettors looking elsewhere.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

A T62 from a $9.1K 22% average owned Justin Rose last week as the Chalk Bomb stays hot! You buttsniffers be sure and @ us on Twitter on the good weeks too, ok.Moving on, this is the hardest week out of the last 15 that I've been writing the Chalk Bomb to pick a player. My options are essentially...Rahm - I'm not an insane personJT - No wayHovland - I've not been living under a rockScheffler - Feels like a Koepka type where his 1st win may just be here...Webb - Ugh...this one was close, but I couldn't do it.And finally...Xander - I chose X manI liked Xander on the podcast. I did. He's $9.7K and projected around 17% in GPPs. He's gained 33.8 strokes total here in just 4 attempts. He's feasted on TPC Scottsdale. But even though he hasn't been playing bad...you could make a strong case for his incoming form this year to the WMPO being as bad as it's been since his first year here in 2018. The last 2 years, he was coming in with 1 or multiple very recent runner up finishes. Then in 2019, he was coming off a win at The Sentry. Those 3 years account for 25.8 of the 33.8 total strokes gained in his 4 attempts here.Long term form hasn't been amazing as he's logged just 2 top 10s since May and 1 of those is a T5 at the 30 man field Tour Championship. He's consistent and he's a cut maker for sure. But his upside as of now doesn't seem as high as it was just 18 to 24 months ago. Finally, in making the tough decision on who to fade of my options this week...I'm taking into account the current PM/AM wave advantage as of Wednesday afternoon and Xander finds himself on the wrong side of that. At 17% (Top 7 highest) projected ownership, Alexander Victor Schauffele...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

If ghost do really exist I can't imagine all the weird shit they are doing around us just because we can't see them. Like one could be...nevermind...anway, I just bet they aren't all saints. That's all I'm saying. Forgive me for this, but hear me out. Could it be possible, if we're being objective, that Girl Scout Thin Mint Cookies are overrated? I'm just saying! It's worth a study.I don't know about you people, but if I slap a piece of cold cheese on my sandwich it still seems like a relatively healthy sandwich. If I were to melt that same piece of cheese though, on the same sandwich, it all of a sudden becomes a meal I feel could quite possibly give me a heart attack. Sometimes I wish there was a way you could hang up on someone with a cell phone by just slamming it down like the good old days. But still not break after you did that. This is kind of sad to admit, but I'll do it anyway. Both my headlights are currently out on my truck so I'm having to drive at night with the high beams on. Let me tell you something. People get REALLY ANGRY with high beams coming there way. I mean, real f'in mad. It's kind of funny to me actually how much they freak out flashing their lights back at me right now. Alright folks! That’s all I got. Enjoy this fantastic field and the great spectacle that is the Waste Management Open. Good luck with your lineups and bets. Bome!  

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