Waste Management 2023 HP

HP 🍑 for The Waste Management

February 07, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.We have an ELEVATED EVENT at an ELECTRIC venue with an EXCEPTIONAL field! Welcome to Phoenix for the rowdiest tournament on the PGA Schedule, The Waste Management Phoenix Open. The course is a masterpiece in terms of the final stretch of risk/reward holes designed by Tom Weiskopf. 7,261 yards of pure Scottsdale joy with of course the Iconic Stadium Par 3 16th followed by the driveable 332 yard par 4th 17th which will blow your wife's buffalo chicken dip out of the water in terms of a Super Bowl appetizer. Here are some notes that we think will help you out with selections this week:

  • In the last 12 years, Winners have averaged a 46/1 Betting Price. 6 of those winners have been below 28/1.

  • 7th largest greens on tour for square footage averaging over 7,000 sq ft (twice the size of Pebble)

  • TPC Scottsdale plays at the 2nd highest elevation of any course on Tour this season.

  • This course rewards SG: OTT as much as any on Tour. Bubba once said, "at this place, if my driver stays in play...it's a driving golf course." The majority of the closing stretch has water in play.

  • Last year 23% of strokes gained here came OTT. PGA Tour average is only 15.2%.

  • Controlled aggression is key here. Though water and sand and native area abound, you've got to stay aggressive on the par 5s, number 17, etc. There are a ton of eagles here every year. Look for aggressive players arriving in great ball striking form and ready to score DK points.

  • Per Justin Ray, since 2010 - GIR Rank of the Winners at Scottsdale (3.9) VS Tour Avg (11.5) AND SG:T2G Rank for Winner (4) VS Tour Avg (7.9)

  • DataGolf has TPC Scottsdale near the very top in terms of courses where experience / course history play a decent role in success. 

  • It's noteworthy that the majority on the water comes into play on the left side of holes. Looks into Fantasy National's stats regarding Driver miss avoidance left vs. right for an additional advantage this week

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for the South Course at TPC Scottsdale:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at TPC Scottsdale: Homa, Poston, Hubbard, Matsuyama, Steele, Piercy, Schauffele, Hoge

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at TPC Scottsdale: SW Kim, Grillo, Taylor, Finau, Lee, Cink, Stallings, Dufner, Streelman

Draftkings Optimal Lineup per DataGolf:

Rahm, C. Young, Day, Mitchell, Harman, Poston

3 DFS Sleepers for the Waste Management PHX Open

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 3 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.3 Names in 12 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. True SG: OTT over the last 6 months: 1. McIlroy,  2. Rahm  3. Scheffler  4. Young  5. Mitchell  6. Vegas  7. Buckley  8. Im  9. Champ  10. Conners2. Driving Accuracy x GIR % last 36 rounds: 1. Morikawa  2. Henley  3. T Kim  4. Harman  5. Rai  6. SW Kim  7. Conners  8. Scheffler  9. Hoge  10. Buckley3. DFS Fantasy Points Gained on the field last 6 months:  1. McIlroy  2. Montgomery  3. Scheffler  4. Thomas  5. Rahm  6. Cantlay  7. Finau  8. Schauffele  9. Young  10. Hovland4. Leaders in Total SG Adjustment for Course Fit at TPC Scottsdale via DataGolf: 1. Morikawa  2. T Kim  3. Rai  4. Rahm  5. Henley  6. Scheffler  7. Im  8. Conners  9. Hovland  10. Mitchell5. Top 10 in SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale Last 24 rounds : 1. Todd  2. Gay  3. Poston  4. Fowler  5. Kuchar  6. Hossler  7. Horschel  8. Scheffler  9. Noren  10. Simpson6. Top 10 in Opportunities Gained in the last 36 rounds: 1. Hoge  2. McIlroy  3. Steele  4. Cantlay  5. Conners  6. SW Kim  7. T Kim  8. Lowry  9. Kitayama  10. Finau7. Top 10 Players in positive DataGolf Trend Index: 1. Rahm  2. McIlroy  3. Finau  4. Scheffler  5. Morikawa  6. Schauffele  7. Young  8. Cantlay  9. Day  10. Noren8. Top 10 Players in two highest approach shot distribution buckets (125-150 and 150-175): .1 T Kim  2. Morikawa  3. Thomas  4. Hubbard  5. Dufner  6. Van Rooyen  7. Grillo 8. Ryder  9. SW Kim  10. Matsuyama9.  Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values):  1. Harman  2. Mitchell  3. Steele  4. Noren  5. Rahm  6. McIlroy  7. Young  8. Scheffler  9. Day  10. Bradley10. Top 10 in Win Rate Expecation based on Course Fit + Baseline via DataGolf 1. Rahm  2. McIlroy  3. Scheffler  4. Schauffele  5. Finau  6. Cantlay  7. Morikawa  8. Young  9. Homa  10. Thomas

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