Waste Management @ TPC Scottsdale

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Welcome back boys & girl(s?). I just wanted to take a moment to remind everyone that if you're only looking at/reading the Chalk Bomb part of the email, you're really missing out on the real info that you should be focusing on. As much as I hate Patrick Reed, he was in the player pool last week because he made the 10 Key Stats 4! times (link above). In the head to head section we gave you very compelling cases to play Scott over Day, & Rahm over Rory at equal ownerships. And in the opening, we broke down why accuracy doesn't matter at Torrey (despite everyone else says it does), and MOST of the top guys were in the tee time wave we expected. So if all you did was scroll down and fade Hideki...congrats? But what did you do for the other 131 players? Get the most out of ALL our 100% free offerings & maximize the edge we're trying to provide.

(Image from DataGolf) Straight from the mouth of Geno (Joel Dahmen's caddie), 'this course sucks. Every hole is the same, every other hole has a forced carry of 285-290 (right where they carry it) and your only chance against the bombers is gaining at least 4 strokes putting.' As you can see from the image above, it does look like total driving is the key metric this week, followed by putting, approach, and around the green play respectively. So while I would agree with Geno that the bombers have a nice edge with the forced carry holes, good total drivers have historically played well here (Hideki, Chez, Webb, Rickie, JT,  Woodland, etc). Past that we're really just looking for good bermuda putters, especially ones that putted poorly on the poa last week. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Berger vs. Matsuyama

Berger -126 vs. Matsuyama +108

Clear DFS value for Berger as he's $200 cheaper on DK yet the H2H favorite. I expect both players to be fairly chalky with the strong to quite strong course history and reasonable price points below the 1st tier of guys. Let's start with Hideki. Last week was just a bad setup for him all around. Contrary to what many thought, his course history is not good at Torrey, he was on the wrong side of the draw, he was begging for negative putting regression, and he had one of the worst wind splits in the entire field. Frankly, he was lucky to even make the cut. Now for this week, he finds a much better course fit, he's far & away #1 in historical GIR's hit, he's in the top 10 for both custom models in the 10 stats, and he was #6 T2G last year despite a 16th place finish. Berger's course history is a little more of a mixed bag than the boxscore crowd can see. In both of his high finishes (7th in 17', 9th in 20') he gained LESS THAN 1 total stroke T2G both years. In 17' he gained 8.4 strokes putting, and in 20' he gained 7.6 strokes putting. Soooo just a little mean reversion to be expected for Mr. Berger's putting at Scottsdale. 

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MATCHUP 2

Scheffler vs. Zalatoris

Scheffler -112 vs. Zalatoris -104

Very few lines this week surprised me, but this was certainly one of them. It almost seems like Zalatoris & Scheffler have traded places as the next real up & comer in the minds of DFS players, but the sportsbooks are here to remind you that Scottie is still the favorite heading into this week. While I don't expect Zalatoris to be THAT chalky, these are the kinds of 1v1's that can make or break or your week. Scottie fired a cool 65 on Thursday last week, only to lose almost 5 strokes putting on Friday & pull a full Keegan (1st place rd 1 to MC by Friday). Also, while he missed the cut at last year's WM, he hit 75% of his GIR's, well above field average. For Willy, he still hasn't built up enough measured rounds yet for us to really know what exactly he's best at (other than just golf in general). I do expect this to be a good fit for him as he's 11th in the field in driving distance, & over 44 measured rounds so far he's 7th in the field in GIR's gained. 

MATCHUP 3

JT vs. McIIroy

JT -117 vs. McIIroy +100

Well grasshoppers, we tried to warn you last week that strokes gained good night sleep was gonna be in play for Rory since he had just flown from the other side of the world. He went on to log his lowest finish at Torrey to date. I've started to notice a pattern in those setups. It's not so much the ball striking that is affected, it's generally the putter that suffers. Why? I could think of lots of theories, but last week was no different. He finished 6th in the field in strokes gained tee to green, lead the field in GIR's hit, but averaged 31 putts per round (Sad!). Now we get several things working in our favor for Rory. 1. He should be post jet lag by Thursday 2. He goes from his worst putting surface to his best surface (bermuda) 3. We get a $400 price break 4. His ownership will be lower 5. He's #1 & #2 in the custom models for the 10 stats this week. And after all that, JT is the H2H fave! Pound for pound I would argue that JT has some of the best course in the field despite 2 missed cuts on his resume (don't tell anyone though!). He's been well above field average in GIR's hit 5 of 6 times, and even in one of his missed cuts he hit 72% (obviously just had 2 bad rounds putting). And despite missing the cut at the Abu Dhabi (hello again strokes gained good nights sleep), he was really good tee to green, hitting 75% of his GIR's. JT is #1 in the field the last 50 rounds for DK points scored, AND #1 T2G. Here's hoping both guys go overlooked. 

Other interesting lines:Horschel -114 vs. Henley -102Simpson -126 vs. Berger +108Long -116 vs. Wise -101JT -115 vs. Schauffele -102Gooch -116 vs. Ben An -101

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• This is projected to be his 2nd highest ownership week.....ever

• He's played here once, & finished 45th

• He loses strokes against his baseline on bermuda grass

• On bermuda over the last 50 rounds, he's 114th in the field in putting

• He also loses strokes against his baseline around the greens on bermuda courses

• On firm & fast greens, he ALSO loses strokes against his baseline

• On firm & fast greens, he's 91st in the field in DK points scored

• He's 55th in proximity in the main approach shot bucket over his last 50 rounds

• He has 15.4% Top 10 odds

• He loses strokes T2G against his baseline on firm greens

• He made the 10 key stats exactly zero times

At 17.6% calculated ownership on Fantasy National (3rd highest), Corey Conners, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

So, I’m watching the PGA Tour’s interview stream today and after almost a full year of virtual meetings, Zoom calls, etc. I still can’t understand why it’s so damn difficult for people to remember to take themselves off mute before they speak. On the flip side, it’s also just as mind boggling that there’s always at least one person who can’t seem to remember to do the opposite and turn on mute. Happens almost every single meeting. What are we doing here people?!

I got a question. Who came up with the sound track for the emergency broadcast system? It sounds like a microwave that’s about to explode or something. I mean, who said “I’ve got a great sound for this…a motherboard that is catching on fire followed by two beeps.”

I’ve always wondered who doctors see when they have a personal medical issue? Someone else in their practice? What if they are solo? Do they just examine themselves? And what about dentists? Are they going to other dental practices? Could doctors and dentists actually be the most neglectful people to their own health than anyone?

Who the hell decided that a ground hog should predict whether or not we get 6 more months of winter or an early spring? I feel like it should have been a duck or a goose. You know, an animal that’s more familiar with the sky and weather patterns.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week folks! Enjoy the Waste Management Open at TPC Scottsdale this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!