The Valspar Championship 2024 Chalk 💣

After a beautiful weekend at Sawgrass for the PLAYERS, Florida’s usual springtime storms will play a factor at Innisbrook Resort this week. While mild conditions are expected Thursday, the second round may be in danger of postponement with high winds and heavy rain expected. It looks like the AM/PM wave will have the wind advantage on Friday, but they’ll be more likely to get the worst of the rainfall that afternoon with over an inch expected heading into Friday evening.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Tony Finau -130 ($9300) vs. Cam Young +100 ($9600)

We begin near the top of the board in the $9k range where Tony Finau is surprisingly a heavy favorite in the sharp head-to-head betting markets over Cam Young despite a significantly cheaper price tag in DraftKings DFS.

Both guys are in decent form so far this season, but it’s the previous experience at the Copperhead Course that likely gives Finau the edge. Although he hasn’t played the Valspar since 2018, he does have five starts in this event including a solo fifth in 2017. For Young, this will be his first appearance at the Valspar and his first time navigating the famous ‘Snake Pit’ at the Copperhead Course.

As expected with two of the bigger names in the field, both players are expected to be popular plays in DFS. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, both players are north of our ‘Chalk Bomb’ eligibility line at over 15% projected ownership.

Beau Hossler -125 ($8300) vs. Keith Mitchell -105 ($8900)

Taking a look at a pair of the cheaper options down in the $8k range, the sharp oddsmakers like Beau Hossler in a head-to-head matchup with Keith Mitchell who is $600 more expensive in DFS.

These two are no strangers to this event but have each had very different experiences. Hossler has the body of work advantage with five prior starts compared to Mitchell’s two, but Cashmere Keith has the better results with two made cuts and a T11 in 2017. Big Hoss has made the cut just once — a T39 back in 2021.

But for those looking to pivot off the chalk, Hossler would be the play. Our projections have him around 7% ownership — almost half of Mitchell’s expected roster percentage as he’s among the more popular plays at around 13%

Andrew Putnam -138 ($7700) vs. Taylor Moore +108 ($7800)

Lastly, Andrew Putnam is a significant head-to-head favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Taylor Moore despite a slight discount in DraftKings DFS pricing.

This may come as a surprise to those who remember Moore’s one-shot victory at the Valspar in just his second start in this event. The defending champ has the experience advantage over Putnam who has three starts at the Copperhead Course but will be looking for his first made cut this week.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, Moore is unsurprisingly the more popular player at this price point at roughly 11% ownership — making Putnam a nice pivot option at around 6% if you want to tail the bookies.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

The Florida swing has not been kind to those tagged with the infamous ‘Chalk Bomb’ — and yours truly is loving it.

While Willy Z is my guy and I expect him to make moves this year, his total wipeout at the PLAYERS warmed my heart and brought home another W for this column. As the second-highest-owned player, Zalatoris shot 73-75 to miss the cut and probably buried those who started him in DFS.

But who will be this week’s lineup killer? That’s what we’re here to find out as we look ahead to the Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is well-known for its difficulty and demanding finishing stretch known as “The Snake Pit”. The par 71 routinely plays as one of the most difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR calendar and one that requires precision off the tee and on approach as opposed to brute strength.

The historical data courtesy of our friends at Bet the Number shows that this course is about as far from a ‘Bomber’s Paradise’ as you can get. There are only eight true ‘driver holes’, and over the last three years, players that are 10-25 yards shorter than average off the tee are only losing .81 strokes per round to the field while the bombers who are 20+ longer than average are only gaining .86 strokes.

These are not comforting numbers for this week’s Chalk Bomb who often relies on his power off the tee to make up for shortcomings in accuracy. In fact, this player ranks 110th in this week’s field in Driving Accuracy Percentage over the last 24 rounds.

Fortunately for him, accuracy on approach is just as important as precision off the tee at the Copperhead Course. It’s definitely a bold call picking against the player who leads the entire field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, but I’m willing to take that chance. As close as the Chalk Bomb stuffs his approach shots, he has a knack for missing the putts once he gets up there.

If his rank of 74th in the field in SG: Putting on Overseed greens wasn’t bad enough, the advanced analytics paint a bleaker picture. The BTN analysts have identified putts between 4-10 feet as being especially common at Copperhead, and this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks 122nd in the field in SG: Putting from that range.

Lastly, while the Copperhead Course is far from the most predictive layout we see each year on the PGA TOUR, a positive track record never hurts — especially in DFS when you’re picking between similarly-priced players who might have a better resume.

This week’s Chalk Bomb does have four prior starts at the Valspar but none since 2018. That’s a long time to forget any previous experience, and this guy might want to forget — aside from a solo fifth in 2017, he’s missed the cut at Innisbrook in every other appearance.

Coming off a disappointing T45 at the PLAYERS last week and projected at almost 18% DFS ownership, I’m willing to gamble on none other than Tony Finau as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

Inflation doesn’t seem to affect the price of the March Madness brackets I’ve done for 20 years. Or… gumball machines.

I don’t know why the hell it’s called spring cleaning. It should be winter cleaning. Everyone is ready to get the F out the house in the spring.

What the hell happened to the sugar daddy candy? I mean, who said the sugar baby was the only one we needed.

I feel sorry for drivers in Jacksonville, Florida. There will never, ever, in the history of the city, be a day when major construction isn’t being done somewhere in a high-traffic area.

Alright, that’s all I got. I hope all your monies avoid the snakes of Copperhead this week. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!