Valspar HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Valspar Championship

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.The thing about driving through Florida is you feel like you are never going to make it out! Well, I am pleased to inform you we have made it to the home stretch with the final leg of the Florida swing taking place this week at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort just outside of Tampa. We have another tough test this week as the Valspar annually plays as one of the tougher stops on Tour.The course is most famous for it's difficult 3-hole stretch coined the Snake Pit, complete with a stellar copper snake statue, but the most unique feature of this event may be the 5 par 3's they have this week that all player over par and over 195 yards. You had better bring your long iron game!The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking as the 5th toughest fairways to hit on the schedule. In response to the last couple of years with scoring conditions lower than we are used to here, the superintendents have ratcheted up the rough to 3.75 inches from last year which was around 3 inches. It presents sort of an atypical Florida course feel as more of a Parklands style track, and we would expect the winning score to be somewhere around -12 to -16 under par depending on the weather this week.Here's some other important notes to consider when starting your research this week for the Valspar:

  • Despite many players clubbing down due to these narrow fairways, the fairway hit % is still pretty average and driving distance is considerably lower than average. Everybody really hits it to the same spot in the fairway.

  • The course has quirks. Elevation changes, slopes, doglegs, and some blind approach shots. Plus, the wind can change on a dime and different winds present different challenges, giving an edge to experience.

  • Copperhead features greens that average only 5800 sq feet which is healthily below the average green size on the PGA Tour, making GIR percentages lower than we typically see, thus providing added emphasis on ARG game.

  • Greens are made up of POA Trivialis grass, similar to what we see at courses like Harbour Town, PGA West, Sawgrass, and Scottsdale.

  • Water is in play on 6 holes.

  • Innisbrook ranks 4th LOWEST out of all courses on the current PGA TOUR schedule in driving distance average taken since 2015…right there w/ PGA NATIONAL, PGA West and Colonial

  • In the last 2 years, over 20% of approach shots have come from 175-200 yards which is well above the tour average from this distance.

  • Like all the courses in the Florida swing, this place is tough, requires patience, endurance and solid ball striking form coming in. It's got teeth. Look for very strong mid to long iron players in good form that can scramble well.

  • The best scoring opportunities are on the Par 5's, look for players with good par 5 scoring to have success.

  • In a strange turn of events, Burns and Casey have won consecutively back to back over the past 4 events here, averaging a 35/1 winning ticket price over that time.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for the Valspar:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Valspar: Burns, Donald, Walker, Dufner, Cink, Harman, Thomas, Hadwin

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Valspar: ZJ, Hahn, Laird, Hoffman, Taylor, Hadley, Thompson, Stanley

Draftkings Optimal Lineup this week per DataGolf:

Rose, Hadwin, Clark, Jaeger, Duncan, Ryder

3 DFS Sleepers for The VALSPAR 2023

Coming off 2 trunk slammers last week (but an electric video), DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 3 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.3 Names in 10 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. Strokes Gained T2G Leaders from last years Valspar: 1. Thomas  2. Theegala  3. Nesmith  4. Burns  5. Fitzpatrick  6. Schauffele  7. Weisberger  8. Hadwin  9. Streelman  10. Spaun2. Adjusted Strokes gained T2G leaders in the field over the last 3 months: 1. Thomas  2. Spieth  3. Woodland  4. Clark  5. Gerard  6. Vegas  7. Hadwin  8. Higgo  9. Rose  10. Jaeger3. Strokes gained Putting at the Copperhead Course last 36 rounds:  1. Burns  2. Poston  3. Riley  4. McCarthy  5. Sigg  6. Kizzire  7. Cook  8. Harman  9. Donald  10. Thompson4. Fairways Gained leaders on difficult courses over the last 36 rounds: 1. Armour  2. Reavie  3. Moore  4. Thompson  5. Long  6. Stuard  7. Laird  8. Stanley  9. Streelman  10. Smotherman5. Biggest positive Adjusted Course fit leaders via Datagolf : 1. Reavie  2. Stuard  3. Moore  4. Longmerth  5. Armour  6. Blair  7. Knox  8. Haley  9. Thompson  10. Glover6. Strokes Gained Approach Leaders weighted with field strength since Jan 1, 2023: 1. Gerard  2. Roy  3. Clark  4. Woodland  5. Bhatia  6. Spieth  7. Rose  8. Hahn  9. Lost  10. Donald7. Par 5 Scoring Leaders over the last 50 rounds played: 1. Higgo  2. Westmoreland  3. Fitzpatrick  4. Thomas  5. Cole  6. Spieth  7. Clark  8. Vegas  9. Rodgers  10.Percy8. Top 10 Players in projected DFS Value according to DataGolf : 1. Jaeger  2. Duncan  3. Thomas  4. Taylor  5. Hadwin  6. Smalley  7. Ryder  8. Bradley  9. Clark  10. Woodland9.  Top 10 in Approach Proximity from 175-200 yards last 50 rounds played:  1. Reavie  2. Bradley  3. Fleetwood  4. Glover  5. Rose  6. Lashley  7. Norlander  8. Mullinax  9. Hoffman  10. Vegas10. Top 10 in scrambling over the last 3 months: 1. Cole  2. Norlander  3. Echavarria  4. Schwab  5. Goya  6. Gerard  7. Griffin  8. Jaeger  9. Fitzpatrick  10. Burns

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