Valspar Chalk Bomb 2023

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As you can see, a lot to continue to monitor here. It appears there could be a wave advantage to the PM/AM bunch but Friday looks to be pretty gnarly for all players. We'll go over the latest weather tonight!As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Sam Burns +107 ($10,200) vs. Justin Rose -128 ($9,600)

We think it's important to take the data and numbers we get in a Head to Head market and sometimes apply that to DFS or outright betting. It's also important to follow the money, which came in early and often on Justin Rose in this matchup offering. Rose actually opened as a +115 underdog before flipping the odds on this matchup and he's now settled in as a -128 favorite.Typically in these spots we will see some buy back on Burns but that has not come to fruition yet. There is not a huge ownership leverage spot in this matchup, as the latest projections from the Nut Hut Research channel have both players come in around 19% owned.Rosey is certainly an attractive pivot when you factor in the cheaper salary and recent iron play which has been a point of major struggle for Sam Burns. That said, do you really want to step in front of a supremely talented player like Burns going for 3 in a row at Valspar?!

Tommy Fleetwood -135 ($9,800) vs. Davis Riley +112 ($9,000)

Our second matchup this week features Fleetwood and Riley, which is actually a pretty close betting price on the matchup given the substantial difference in DFS price and also outright betting price. Riley arrives back at Valspar off his best career finish and could be a lucrative option at $9k even.When running a Head to Head Matchup simulation using strokes gained data from the last 50 rounds played for each player, Fleetwood has a 65% win probability which equates to a -181 projected money line. The sharps have attacked this angle as well as Tommy opened at a more modest -127 price.Again, we have another matchup where ownership for both players in relatively high although Riley has a slight leverage advantage at about 14% owned versus Tommy who is projected more like 17% ownership.

Denny McCarthy +102 ($9,300) vs. Wyndham Clark -122 ($8,800)

We love these kind of matchups where the favorite in the head to head is cheaper in DFS. That's the case with Wyndham Clark this week. The matchup opened at even -110 odds on both sides before money started coming in on Clark who's form has been fantastic lately.Denny has been no slouch either though, stacking together great and consistent performances dating back to last summer. This should be a good course setup for both players. When analyzing ownership projections, the Nut Hut Research channel has Denny projected at 11.5% and Clark at a whopping 17.2%.It's worth noting that the matchup simulator actually agrees with Clark being the favorite which was somewhat suprising, with Wyndham projected to win this matchup 52% of the time over a 50 round sim. Good luck this week and use this info the best way you see fit!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. The chalk bomb went BOOM last week as Justin Thomas shit the bed despite 2 ridiculously lucky hole outs that saved him probably 4 more strokes. The trends and data matched up with what our eye-test and he certainly made a worthy candidate for a fade last week. Glad we nailed one! We'll look to see if we can do it once again this week with a much different looking field and golf course.The Copperhead Course over the years has been far less volatile in terms of results in comparison to TPC Sawgrass. There is only water in play on 6 holes, and it's much more of a traditional Parklands style golf course with trees and elevation that are somewhat unfamiliar with Florida golf.It's a truer sense of form in that everything is right out there in front of you and there is a less severe penalty for a 2 yard miss. Valspar is annually a Tee to Green test where the results are dictated by being in control of your ball for 72 holes. The chalk bomb this week is in the midst of struggles right now both Off the Tee with Driver and with his Irons on approach. Neither is in form at the moment, and we have heard multiple sources familiar with this players coach and swing convey that things appear out of whack at the moment. He's working through things, which could present the ideal opportunity to fade until he works out the kinks.The other thing that is a bit different in terms of course setup this year is the rough. They grew it up and brought it in closer to the greens in an effort to increase the difficulty as a result of some good scoring the past couple of years. We also have quite a bit of rain in the forecast this week in Florida which the area has been in desperate need of. These two factors make me believe that driving accuracy and playing from the fairway will be much more important this year than in the past couple seasons. We could see preferred lies in place and if the rough is thicker and wet, it is going to be a tall task in terms of controlling your spin and distance, both a which have proven to be key to success at the Copperhead Course. The chalk bomb this week ranks 83rd in Fairways Gained in the field this week.Lastly, this player is likely to be highly owned this week due primarily to their positive history at the Valspar. If you look deeper at incoming form before their great performance here in 2022, you will see they gained strokes on Approach in 3 of the 4 previous events and also had a 9th place and 26th place finish in two Florida stops before the 2022 Valspar. This year, they have lost strokes on approach in 3 consecutive events and have a MC and 35th at the two Florida courses over the last month. I'm certain at this point you know EXACTLY who is the chalk bomb this week, but let me introduce him anyways. Young stud Sammy Burns, at $10,200 and nearly 20% ownership, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

I'm tired of living in unprecedented times. I would like to live in precedented times for once please. I have this "white noise" app on my phone that has all these different sounds that are supposed to be soothing while you sleep...I guess. Someone please tell me though how the sounds of coins or some shit clanking around in the running dryer is supposed to be soothing? It just pisses me off to be honest wondering who the hell left that shit running like that in the dryer.I feel like the saying "beware the ides of March" in today's world basically means check yourself before you wreck yourself. I have to think after the financial events of the last week or so that banking is probably one of the few industries where you would rather your competitors NOT fail. I am testing a theory based on...well...myself. I think you have dishtowel people and paper towel people and I'm not sure whether or not there are hybrid's. I'm a dishtowel person for the record. Of all the things that have basically been rendered meaningless with technology and modern communication, it really kind of pisses me off that greeting cards still exist. Just saying. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you have a great week for the Valspar Championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!