Valspar 22 Chalk Bomb

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After the weather dry banged the PM/AM crowd at The PLAYERS last week, we look to get a reprieve from Florida storms and downpours, but the wind will make an appearance. Thursday may have some sprinkles of rain in the morning, but nothing major. Friday does seem to have the wind picking up for the PM guys. The weekend stays windy with higher sustained and gusts on Saturday and Sunday. Copperhead is a tough course without any wind, but with wind, it puts even more of a premium on the guys in great iron form that can scramble when they miss greens. They will miss greens.In terms of a wave advantage, I don't see a huge advantage, but potentially more favorable conditions for the guys finishing earlier on Friday not having to battle fast, firm, and slopey greens getting dried out by 10-15mph winds. As ALWAYS...if you're going to stack any wave when building lineups, always throw in some stacks on the opposite side just in case shit gets weird and the weather changes or the weather person is wrong.  

Louie -122 vs. DJ +101

This line has narrowed some since opening with Louie a -136 favorite. Both players are projected to be in the 13-16% ownership range for DK GPPs, and we're getting a $300 savings on one of the better Copperhead course horses in Louie. What also caught my eye is that Louie is equally a decent sized favorite over Burns and Xander. 

DJ opened as a major dog to just about all the studs up top. He remains a big dog to Hovland and JT. However, his line against Morikawa has moved a ton. DJ opened as a +102 dog and now he's a -116 favorite over Morikawa. The books and bettors are seemingly not believing in Morikawa this week. I'm not sure why unless they're weighing short game heavier than normal.

Nonetheless, I find a + money DJ an always enticing H2H bet to fire on, but it confirms that I'll likely stick with Louie in DFS as long as both continue to be equally projected in terms of ownership.

Hatton -129 vs. Fitz +107

These 2 Euros are similar in skill set over the long term, but there's no denying Fitzpatrick's ball striking has been much better than Hatton lately. Yet the 10% projected owned Hatton is a major favorite over the 18% projected Fitzpatrick. However, the line opened as a coin flip, but has been bet in Hatton's favor causing the books to try and entice money on the Fitz side. 

Interestingly, Hatton also opened as a coin flip to Shane Lowry, but is now a slight favorite. There appears to be some late Wednesday cash on man who gained over 16 strokes putting in his last 2 events!

Fitzpatrick opened and remains a big favorite over course horse Jason Kokrak, and his line with Shane Lowry is a coin flip. This leads me to believe the books think this matchup is much closer than the H2H money coming in seems to believe.

Wise -123 vs. McCarthy -101

I'm a fan of Wise in general. Way more so than I am of the Shrimp King, Denny's McCarthy! Both are projected around 10% in DFS. McCarthy's record here is better and you do save $300 on DraftKings using Denny, but I still believe Wise to be the better fit here. It's certainly a tale of 2 very different skill sets between these two, and I'll go with the much better ball striker and very underrated scrambler in Aaron Wise. 

In his only other matchup across the major books, Wise opened as a + money dog to Tringale, but has now become a slight favorite. I think Wise's distance advantage, long iron advantage, and scrambling ability puts him over the top for me in this matchup as well as a DFS selection. He's hit it very well the last 2 weeks on his way to losing nearly 10 strokes putting. He's just one average putting week away from being in contention.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

I'm sorry I didn't get this email out last week. I was walking TPC Sawgrass gathering intel for the Nut Hut and Pat's incapable of executing this alone. Something about his "real job" or something like that...Psh! Is he saying delivering copious amounts of delicious golf content to our adoring fans isn't a "real job"? Possibly. Who could know?Anyway, I did hop in the Nut Hut last week and name Jon Rahm my Chalk Bomb for the week much to Pat's chagrin. However, I'd say that one paid off as Jon remained irrelevant for yet another week as the highest priced guy in the field.I'll keep this week's CB short (pun intended). It's Abe Ancer. He's the 11th highest priced golfer in the field after Casey WD'd at $9.3K and his projected ownership as of now is at 18%. Listen, if you want to trot Lil' Abe (his rap name) out there in cash or in a small GPP...be my guest. I think Abe's going to make the cut, but my problem with him is his ceiling (that's not another height joke). The dude hasn't cracked the top 30 all year! Hell...he barely cracks 30 inches! Ok...I'll stop.He does have 2 solid finishes here. One of them he gained over 9 strokes putting...which is the highest in his career. Oh by the way, bermuda is his worst surface...The other solid finish here, he gained over 3 strokes around the green. He's only done better than that in 2 other tournaments in his entire PGA TOUR career. I just don't buy the hype with Lil' Abe, and I won't start now. Made cut...sure. Top 10 or top 15...? I doubt it. At 18% (Top 7 highest) projected ownership, Lil' Abraham Ancer...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

It’s ironic to me that fresh flowers can smell so nice and lovely, yet the water in the vase they are in smells like absolute dog crap.Motion sensored bathroom hand washing areas must hate my body. If it’s the sink faucet, I gotta wave my damn hands all over the place until water finally comes out for about 2 seconds until I have to do it all over again. If it’s the paper towel dispenser, I’m putting my hands first in front of the sensor, then my wrists, and then my whole damn arm and still no towels. Then I just drop my hands to give up and towels start spewing out. We need some better motion sensor technology in bathrooms.If I’m checking out somewhere and need a receipt you can be damn sure that the printer tape is going to run out and need changing on me. This is also true at the office with printer paper.Have you ever ordered sushi to go and they forget the soy sauce? Then you get all the way home and discover you have no soy sauce in the fridge so then your sushi is worthless? That really sucks.  Let's talk about moving sidewalks at the airport. I f'in hate it when people get on those things and just sit there instead of walking on them. Then they block it where you can't even walk by. Get to one side and stop blocking the moving sidewalk so the folks that aren't actually lazy douchebags can get to where they need to go faster. I mean have some common courtesy.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy Valspar Championship and the snake pit at Copperhead. It should be a great tournament. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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