The Toughest Test in Golf

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

That's right, I said it. This is THE hardest course on the PGA Tour. Only 3 holes average under par (all par 5's), and 6 holes average .15 strokes over par (that might not seem like a lot, but it is). Put a little more simply, half the holes on the course have a bogey or worse % over 20%. Water legitimately comes into play on 6 holes (sometimes twice) and the course boasts 70+ bunkers just to add a little bit of a challenge. Depending on the wind, the cut line has generally hovered around 2-4 over par. Speaking of wind, below is the forecast for Thursday & Friday, it just looks like your normal days at a Flordia course with sustained winds in the 6-10 range & gusts up to the high teens. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance of the course fit. I really like this course from a fit and DFS perspective. It's a less than driver course which is why the driving distance relative importance is lower this week.  The average DD is just over 270 yards, which is a full 13 yards shorter than the average tour stop. Even more fun is since it's a less than driver course, the driving accuracy % is even LOWER than an average tour stop. I think good drives gained is a great stat to help target players that can take advantage of this.  If you listened to the pod, a little nugget that caddie Rat dropped was the greens seem to play much smaller than they actually are. The data backs this up as well. While the average proximity to the hole is almost identical to the tour average, the GIR% is about 5% lower at Copperhead. And because the boys will be hitting less greens, you guested it, scrambling takes on a higher importance.   

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Casey vs. Conners

Casey +122 VS. Conners -143

What a world. The 2 time defending champ finds himself as the +122 underdog to a 1-time total winner on the PGA Tour. It's especially interesting because Conners is $400 cheaper on DK this week. But I mean what can you say at this point? Conners has completely transformed his short game from one of the literal worst putters on tour, to gaining 11 strokes putting over his last 4 measured events. His around the green game is still a slight liability, but when you're hitting almost every green week in & week out, it's not that big of a deal. Over the last 50 rounds, do you know who gained the most strokes ball striking in the field? It's not JT, it's no DJ, it's not Hovland....it's Corey MF'in Conners. The counter case? Everyone has kind of figured out that Corey has taken a major step forward, so his ownership & price have continued to trend higher for almost every event. The bar for him to 'fail' or not return value keeps getting lower with it. At his projected ownership + price, he probably HAS to finish in the top 10 to return value this week. Up until the Masters, Casey had actually been going toe to toe with him as far as strokes gained tee to green, but his driver has gotten uncharacteristically squirrelly on him. For the 1st time in over 2 years, he's been below field average in fairways hit back-to-back events, which has impacted the rest of his game. Both guys are near 'perfect' course fits as both rank highly in good drives gained, and GIR's gained. 

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MATCHUP 2

Hoffman vs. Tringale

 Hoffman +106 vs. Tringale -123

This line really surprised me because Tringale is cheaper on DK yet the H2H favorite. I've played both of these guys A LOT this year. Both guys have been in that same Stewy Cink bucket where they've added some nice distance off the tee, which has contributed to growth in other areas of their game & consistently higher finishes. The OG of mullet rocking (no offense Cam), Charlie has been golfing his damn ball since the start of the year. Did you know that over the last 24 rounds he's 2nd! in the field in strokes gained approach? And like Conners above, Charlie has also gone from a bad putter, to consistently gaining strokes putting. While his course history isn't great, the ball striking numbers at Innisbrook aren't terrible, he's just had quite a few bad putting rounds here. The good news is that bermuda is basically tied for his best surface, he plays well in difficult scoring conditions and has historically played well in windy conditions. For Tringale, he's just been super steady ever since the start of the wrap-around season. He's literally gained strokes tee to green in every single, and in 6 out of his last 10, he's gained at least 5.2 total strokes on the field. Over his last 24 rounds, he's 29th in good drives gained, 26th in GIR's gained, and 14th in scrambling gained. The other reason I'm surprised he's the H2H fav is that he's actually missed his last 3 cuts here, but on the flip side, I would also argue he's not the same player anymore. I love Hoffman in H2H betting, but if Tringale is flying under the radar again like he is most weeks, I love his DFS value. 

MATCHUP 3

Ancer vs. Im

Ancer -114 vs. Im -101

I wanted to highlight these two because they are 9th & 5th respectively in good drives gained the last 24 rounds, as well as 5th and 15th in scrambling gained in that same time frame. Both have only played here once, but they also had good showing in their inaugural attempts (16th & 4th). Sungjae continues to be a Byrson Jr, at least statistically, gaining lots of strokes off the tee, and lots of stroking putting, but has been wildly inconsistent with both his iron game and around the greens. The good news is that he did gain 3.5 strokes on approach at the RBC, which was his highest total of the 2021 season. He has somehow maintained his ridiculously unsustainable putting pace on bermuda greens averaging over half a stroke gained per round. I love his floor-to-ceiling ratio though, and if he can maintain the approach play from his last time out, he's got a great shot. Abe is always interesting because you would expect a shorter hitter like him to have a lights-out short game, but he's mostly been really bad in that area for 2021. He's lost strokes putting in 6 of his last 7 events and has been overall in the red his last 10 events for strokes gained around the green. 

Other interesting lines:Conners -117 vs. Reed +100DJ -120 vs. Hovland -103Scheffler -112 vs. Im +104Oost -131 vs. Kokrak +112Henley -116 vs. Niemann -101Palmer -108 vs. Hoffman -107Kirk -119 vs. Grillo +102Glover -128 vs. Woodland +110

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He lost 3.2 total strokes his last time out

• For his career, he's lost strokes putting on bermuda

• For his career, he's lost strokes in windy conditions

• Since the start of the wraparound season, he's lost strokes putting in 5 of 8 events

• Since the start of the wraparound season, he's lost strokes around the green in 5 of 8 events

• Since the start of the wraparound season, he's lost strokes on approach shots in 4 of 8 events

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 97th in fairways gained & 46th in good drives gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 103rd in the field in double bogey avoidance

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 45th in the field in par 4 scoring

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 39th in the field in proximity from the 2 main approach shot buckets

• On difficult to hit fairway courses, he loses strokes against his baseline

At 21.4% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (highest) Jason Kokrak, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I keep hearing about this plant based Impossible meat crap some people and restaurants are buying and using for “burgers”, breakfast sandwiches, and other stuff. What the hell is that? It sounds nasty and I don’t even think it’s any better for you than real meat in the first place. Ok so you’re a vegetarian? Fine whatever. It’s still NOT MEAT so how the hell can they even call it that? Furthermore, a real burger has actual meat. Plain and Simple. Get out of here with your impossible non-meat crap.

Here’s another edible (debatable) item I don’t understand. Almond milk. I don’t even think it’s really milk anyway. It also seems to have a hell of a lot of sugar in it and keeps for like 2 months. Nothing good for your body can keep that long and still be called considered a healthier option other than maybe a supplemental vitamin. F almond milk. Sack up and drink some good old fashion whole milk and stop being a pansy.

Here's a thought. You know something designed specifically to keep you safe & secure yet gives me incredible anxiety? Alarm systems. I can't stand them. Im always scared I'm gonna accidentally set off the damn thing, forget the stupid code, or that it just simply might not work in a time of need. As a matter of fact, the first house my wife & I ever lived in had a nice new alarm system that I never used once. Guess what happened? It malfunctioned and went off one night scaring the shit out of me & my wife. Instead of troubleshooting the problem I just ripped it out of the wall. 

 Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Valspar and avoid the Snake Pit at the Copperhead course. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!