Valspar 2019 Chalk Bomb

Valspar Chalk 💣💣💣

March 20, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Valspar Championship at Copperhead 

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Last of the Florida Swing

Many of the stops on tour this year really benefit from the new schedule, unfortunately for the Valspar, this event is not one of them. Understandably a lot of the big names from last week's Players are taking the week off with this event sandwiched between it and a WGC event (plus last Florida swing event). It's a shame for DFS purposes as well because the Copperhead course is a very unique fit. It's a fo-sure less than driver course as the average driving distance here is 12 yards shorter than the PGA average. Another interesting note is that 3 of the last 4 winners of this event have lost strokes off the tee. Now that doesn't mean off the tee doesn't matter, it just carries much less weight than normal. Two other things that test really well here that almost never test well: driving accuracy and scrambling. The harder the course plays, the better both of those items test, contributing to the really unique fit of the course.

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Simpson vs. Woodland 

Both of these guys pop up in the 10 facts several times and both project to be fairly popular this week. In theory Webb 'should' be the better course fit as he's generally better on approach shots and short game while Woodland does a lot of his damage off the tee. BUT, Woodland ranks 8th in the field in the most important approach yardage bucket, he's #1 in the field in strokes gained ball striking at Cooperhead, and he's 7th in the field in GIR % at this event. Webb on the other hand was 10th in the field last year in strokes gained T2G, is 4th in the field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda, and actually is 4th in the field in par 4 scoring which is more important with only 3 par 5's this week. In my view Webb has a much higher floor while Woodland probably has a higher upside. 

MATCHUP 2

Casey vs. Furyk

Casey would probably be THE chalk of the field this week as the returning champ if he hadn't shat the bed last week and almost finished DFL (I'm also guessing he would probably skip the event this year if he wasn't the champ). It's certainly affected this head to head price as well, as Casey would usually be close to a -200 favorite against Furyk. I'll use this spot to plug the 10 facts, it's week in & week out the most valuable part of the chalk bomb and for those of you counting at home, Molinari was mentioned 6 times 2 weeks ago, Rory was mentioned 5 times last week, and Furyk was mentioned 4 times. It makes up a huge part of my own research each week, and when someone's name pops up multiple times it's a great clue to give them a harder look. Furyk has found the fountain of youth as he's finished in the top 10 four times his last 7 events! Now we're on probably his best course fit WITH his best course history. BUT, he's $9200 this week which is easily his highest price tag he's had in 3 years and pending ownership levels could be a prime fade candidate. He almost had season highs in every strokes gained category across the board, mean reversion is coming, it's just a question of when. (And this is coming from someone that had LOTS of Furyk last week)

MATCHUP 3

Stenson vs. Oosty

These two......the biggest enigma's in the field, but that's why I picked this line to discuss. I have no evidence to back this up, but I would guess Stenson is still in the recovery process for his injuries from last year. He went from gaining strokes off the tee in 90% of his events, but has lost strokes in every event this season so far (not to mention he missed 3 straight euro event cuts to start). However, he did hit 75% of his greens last week which would have been top 5 in the field had he made the cut. BUT he had absolutely dreadful short game stats (averaged 32 putts per round and only got up & down 33% of the time). Louie: I've owned far to much of him the last month and have been rewarded zero times. Like Furyk, this is is the highest price he's had in a PGA event in forever, and while he has two good finishes the last two years, he had missed the cut the previous 3. Every week he's had one part of his game that sucked holding him back from better finishes. I think the line is probably correct here as I view Stenson as having a way higher ceiling and equally low floor. 

MATCHUP 4

Johnson vs. Rahm

Both of these guys have been golfing their ball. Everyone associates DJ as just this bomber off the tee that isn't great at other aspects, but he's gained 17.5 strokes on approach shots his last two events! He's first in total strokes gained the last 12 rounds by a mile, and he's doing it by 'only' gaining 2.3 strokes off the tee his last 5 events #PlayDJ. Rahm is almost as big an enigma as the guys in the previous discussion. He's crushing people off the tee, but before last week he had lost strokes on approach 3 of the last 4. Fast forward to the players and Rahm has the 2nd best strokes gained approach numbers of his career in one event. Rahm has never played here, and DJ hasn't played here since 2010. I would like to point out though that in 2008 when DJ played here he hit 69% of his greens which would usually win you the event at this course (he just averaged 33 putts per round). 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

  • Of every player $8400 & up, he has the 2nd worst strokes gained ball striking & the 2nd worst strokes gained tee to green the last 50 rounds

  • He's played here 7 times, and has an average finishing position of 42nd

  • Since the beginning of the season here are his strokes gained tee to green numbers: (-3.7), 0.5, (-2.3), (-3.3), 1.1, (-1.9), 9.2.....one of these is not like the others

  • He's a head to head underdog against someone that's $300 cheaper

  • He's 22nd in the field in par 4 scoring

  • Of everyone $8400 and up he's 2nd to last in par 3 scoring and 3rd to last in par 5 scoring

  • Over the last 50 rounds he's 112th in the field in opportunities gained 

  • In that same time frame, he's 89th in the field in bogey avoidance

  • in the last 12 rounds (remember, he's just played his best golf of the year) he's 31st in GIR's gained and 60th in fairways gained

  • The key approach shot bucket is 200 yards + & 175-200 yards. If you make a custom model & combine his rank in both of those he's 132nd in the field over the last 50 rounds, not far from dead last!

  • He's 15th in the field for strokes gained putting on Bermuda despite being considered a top 5 putter in the field 

  • On fast Bermuda greens his strokes gained putting drops to 113th in the field the last 50 rounds

  • He's 78th in DK scoring in the field the last 50 rounds

  • Of players $8400 and up, he's 3rd worst in par 4 scoring the last calendar year

  • He's been below field average in GIR % in every event this year except last week

  • Twice this season he's lost over 4 strokes alone off the tee 

  • Most books have him at +200 for a top 20 finish, so the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 66.66%. 

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 17.5% this week....Brandt Snedeker, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join right before the Masters! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Valspar:

1.Garcia 2. Reed 3. Hadwin 4. O'Hair 5. Casey 6. Scott 7. Kokrak 8. Mullinax 9. Oosty 10. Simpson

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at Copperhead (Min 8 rounds):

1. Sergio 2. Na 3. Kokrak 4. Furyk 5. Hadwin 6. Kisner 7. Woodland 8. Oosty 9. Jones 10. Steele

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Thompson 2. Gay 3. Day 4. Simpson 5. Donald 6. Kisner 7. Malnati 8. Langley 9. Furyk 10.Burns

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, difficult scoring, difficult fairways to hit, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. DJ 2. Chez 3. Moore 4. Watson 5. Sneds 6. Schwartzel 7. Woodland 8. Donald 9. Simpson 10. Casey ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Furyk 2. Sergio 3. Dufner 4. Reed 5. Knox 6. Haas 7. Stenson 8. Na 9. Stricker 10. Sabbatini

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 175-200 yardage bucket and 200 yards + last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Stenson 2. Hoffman 3. Kokrak 4. Swafford 5. Bradley 6. Casey 7. Hadley 8. Woodland 9. ZJ 10. Svenson

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Valspar, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Hoon-Lee 2. Kokrak 3. DJ 4. Knox 5. Hickok 6. Steele 7. Castro 8. Glover 9. Casey 10. Bradley 

8.

Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking (average, 8 rd min) at Valspar:

1. Woodland 2. Sergio 3. Furyk 4. Kokrak 5. Stenson 6. Perry 7. Moore 8. Senden 9. Simpson 10. Oosty

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Taylor 2. Knox 3. Garcia 4. Rahm 5. Bradley 6. Castro 7. Meyer 8. Furyk 9. Na 10. Landry

10.

Since we're back on a par 71, your top par 4 scorers are

 

: 1. DJ 2. Rahm 3. Day 4. Simpson 5. Stricker 6. Neimann 7. Hatton 8. Im 9. Reed 10. RCB

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"They say Florida is the taint of America, and I say Brandt Snedeker will be the taint of DFS lineups"

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