Valero HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Valero Texas Open

March 28, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.The clock is ticking and excitement levels are palpable as both preeminent world golf tours and ready to send their best to Augusta, GA next week, but not before a final stop at familiar TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. It presents a final opportunity for many in the field, notable Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar, to punch their ticket to the Masters next week.This week we have one of the more unremarkable stops on Tour, but also consistent year over year in terms of success correlations, barring any insane gale force winds that tend to blow through every couple of years. It's also a place where we have seen longshots get home! The average winning betting price of winners over the last 10 years has been 124/1! Who could forget the Corey Conners breakthrough a few years back when he turned a Monday Q into his card, his Masters invite, and the career that has followed.Here's some other important notes to consider that we have jotted down year over year when starting your research this week for the Valero:

  • The fairways are narrow, with doglegs and angles, but the rough isn’t that bad at all. However, if you miss the rough and strategic bunkering…you could find yourself in the Native area with rocks, dirt, etc. Everybody really hits it to the same spot in the fairway.

  • Last year over 20% of all approach shots came from 75-125 yards. Wedge range see's a significant bump this week as compared to the average PGA Tour event.

  • 7 of the last 10 winners were not qualified for the Masters before winning this event.

  • Minimal grain on these bermuda greens this time of year. In fact, this year the GCSAA has the green surfaces listed as POA Triv, so get bermuda out of your models!

  • Unseasonably warm and dry temperatures leading into this event could present a firmer and more difficult golf course depending on the wind. We will continue to monitor the weather as the week progresses. Check back for the chalk bomb email!

  • DataGolf has the average Driving Distance at TPC San Antonio at 287.5 yards (along with TPC Deere Run & Torrey Pines South) and the average Fairways Hit % at 64.4 (along with TPC Sawgrass & TPC Summerlin) since 2015. 

  • Several greens are substantially elevated, placing an increased importance on short iron approach play and precision.

  • 2nd toughest set of Par 5's on Tour.

  • Strong correlation between solid ARG play and success at TPC San Antonio over the last 6 years.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for the Valero:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Valero : Hoffman, Conners, Streelman, Moore, Todd, Laird, Chappell, Si WOO

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Valero: Holmes, Herman, List, Thompson, Knox, Stanley, Barnes, Hossler

Draftkings Optimal Lineup this week per DataGolf:

Hatton, Si Woo, Taylor, An, Duncan, Bramlett

2 DFS Sleepers for The VALERO 2023

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 2 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.2 Names in 8 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. Strokes Gained Ballstriking Leaders over the last 24 Rounds : 1. Hatton  2. List  3. Fowler  4. Conners  5. Smalley  6. Martin  7. Buckley  8. Hahn  9. Hardy  10. Si Woo2. Strokes Gained ARG Leaders over the last 36 Rounds: 1. An  2. Rodgers  3. Bez  4. Piercy  5. Todd  6. Griffin  7. Matsuyama  8. Wallace  9. Shelton  10. Kirk3. Percentage of Rounds Gaining Birdie Opportunities on the field Leaders :  1.Gerard  2. Hatton  3. Nunez  4. Si Woo  5. Davis  6. Piercy  7. Blair  8. List  9. Hoffman  10. Hadley4. Tee to Green Strokes Gained Leaders at TPC San Antonio over last 8 years: 1. Hoffman  2. Glover  3. Conners  4. Laird  5. Kirk  6. Moore  7. Kuchar  8. Streelman  9. Palmer  10. An5. Biggest positive Adjusted Course fit leaders : 1. Hatton  2. Kirk  3. Taylor  4. Putnam  5. Fowler  6. Todd  7. Fox  8. Ryder  9. Kuchar  10. Matsuyama6. Proximity Leaders from Wedge Range last 36 rounds ( 75-125 yards) : 1. Bramlett  2. Cook  3. Knox  4. Palmer  5. Haley  6. Riley  7. Wallace  8. Fox  9. Hatton  10. Si Woo7. Par 5 Scoring Leaders over the last 50 rounds played: 1. Hojgaard  2. Hatton  3. Higgo  4. Fox  5. Rodgers  6. Davis  7. Thompson  8. Cole  9. Westmoreland  10. Wallace8. Long Term SG: Approach leaders over last 100 rounds played : 1. Gerard  2. Bhatia  3. Fox  4. Roy  5. Riley  6. Knox  7. Conners  8. Wallace  9. Shelton  10. Donald9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Points Gained over the last 30 Rounds:  1. Hojgaard  2. Hatton  3. Montgomery  4. Bhatia  5. Fowler  6. Kirk  7. Taylor  8. Matsuyama  9. Fox  10. Si Woo10. Top 10 in scrambling gained over the last 3 months: 1. Griffin  2. Matsuyama  3. Schenk  4. Putnam  5. An  6. Ryder  7. SH Kim  8. Werbylo  9. Spaun  10. Kuchar

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