Valero Chalk Bomb 23

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This is from the San Antonio Airport weather report. At this point, it does appear like we could be headed for a decent AM/PM tee time advantage if they can go off late enough on Friday. We will continue to monitor and will have more on this later tonight.As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Tyrrell Hatton -155 ($10,900) vs. Corey Conners +125 ($10,100)

We are featuring two of the favorites here in our first matchup. The reason we wanted to showcase this matchup is the pretty significant line movement we have noticed since being released.Hatton opened up -130 but has consistently been bet up to -155 now. It's easy to understand why when analyzing both players recent form. Hatton has been gaining an average of 1.75 strokes per round over his last 36 rounds, which is by far the best in the field. Conners on the other hand has only gained 0.34 over the same span.Nut Hut ownership projections currently have Hatton at over 21% projected ownership and Conners not far behind at 19%. We expect both players to come with heavy ownership so the only leverage really is the price-point for Conners.

Mark Hubbard -127 ($6900) vs. Lee Hodges +107 ($7000)

We always love these DFS propositions when you have the player with a cheaper DFS Salary as a favorite in the H2H betting markets. Hubbard opened up a -115 slight favorite before being bet to the point where the line has moved to -127 currently.Both players are projected to be very low owned, below 4% in ownership. Form for both has been fairly level long term but Hubbard does come into this week with 3 of his last 4 cuts made and with a top 30 finish at Corales.Interestingly, in a head to head matchup simulation with data from the last 50 rounds played, Hodges would actually be a slight favorite in the projections with a win probability of 51%.

Nick Taylor -157 ($7,600) vs. Taylor Pendrith +130 ($7,700)

A couple of Canadians have been paired together in our final matchup which has seen dollars pour in steadily on the side of Nick Taylor. Taylor opened up -139, already a substantial favorite, but the market movers decided it still wasn't enough.It's interesting because we believe Pendrith is the more popular option in terms of public perception, but Nick Taylor has been quietly much more consistent of late. That said, DFS players have not let his play go unnoticed, as he is projected to be nearly 15% owned at $7,600.Pendrith has had a couple of impressive finishes at TPC San Antonio during his Korn Ferry Tour days, but has been bleeding strokes consistently with his irons and around the greens. These also happen to be two areas where Taylor excels.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Last week Rory disarmed the chalk bomb by driving it straighter, longer, and to the tune of 385 yards on a closing hole to secure a match. Tough to fade a guy like McIlroy when he is playing to that standard Off The Tee. Thankfully, he wasn't able to win and close the deal, so we are onward to the Valero with high hopes!Historically, we have seen the added incentive of a Masters invitation for those not previously qualified bring the best play and extreme focus out of many players in the field for the Valero. For others already in next week, it has been pretty hit and miss over the years. There's not a whole lot of, if any, correlation between the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and Augusta National. It's not inconceivable that some players may be less results driven this week and could be prioritizing preparation for the first Major of the season. Therefore, I'm looking for a CB this week who will be both highly owned and already in the field for the Masters.Secondly, I'm looking for a player who has been idling through the season thus far and awaiting a top tier performance to align with their preseason expectations. In other words, a player who is still highly regarded and popular, but their results have been poor and below average. The Chalk Bomb I have honed in on (outside of Match Play) has only 1 top 25 finish in the last 2 months.This players iron play has been well below their 20, 50, and 100 round baseline of late. In their last 5 tournaments, the are more than a FULL stroke worse in SG: Approach than their baseline. They are also in worse shape both ARG and Putting as well in their last 5 events. Things have certainly not been trending in a positive direction from a statistical standpoint in their game.This player is easily inside the top 8 players in terms of projected ownership for this week. Using DataGolf's DFS Points projections and value assessments based on salary, they have this player rated as the worst DFS value of any player listed inside the top 9 of projected ownership.The majority of the love for this player is due to his long term form and course history. We mentioned how this player is performing consistently below their baseline long term form. Another big reason why we are fading this player is that we're simply not putting a ton of stock into course history at TPC San Antonio. DataGolf does not have this course as a sticky course history event and when you look at the run of champions over the last 10 years, it doesn't scream that repeat performances are indicative of future success.The CB this week won the Valero Texas Open by gaining +11.6 strokes on approach AND +2.2 strokes putting. He's shown nothing recently to lead us to believe that he has this kind of performance incoming as both metrics have been down substantially this season. Before that win, he averaged +2.5 strokes on Approach per event in his previous 5 tournaments. This year, he's averaged only +0.88 strokes on approach in his last 5 events. It's time to fade folks. This year you will not be lacing up those cowboy boots, because YOU ARE THE CHALK BOMB, Corey Conners!

I have a theory that the most neglected fully recyclable common household item is the end of a toilet paper roll. People are to spoiled with Starbucks and rushed to appreciate a good coffee in a good old fashioned coffee mug these days. One of the most inaccurate "preset buttons" in the world is the popcorn button on a microwave. Orville Redenbacher is the only popcorn it seems to be right on time with. This is a shame and very unethical if you ask me. Orville doing some shady shit with the microwave companies. Look here. As a parent, I get the fact that we need to play along with the whole Santa Claus thing because I mean damn, St. Nick is a great story and a jolly old elf, but this whole Easter Bunny thing is Bullshit. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Just one more week until the Masters but until then, enjoy the Valero Texas Open! Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!