The 2024 US Open Chalk 💣

It’s been bone dry for weeks out at Pinehurst, and with no rain in sight for this week, we can expect firm and fast conditions for the 124th United States Open. There’s also little to no wind — which is probably a good thing, as that will allow the greenskeepers to keep the putting surfaces glassy without risking balls blowing away.

 For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Ludvig Aberg -125 ($9600) vs. Viktor Hovland -105 ($9800)

We begin with the best Nordic golfers going head-to-head where Sweden’s Ludvig Aberg is a favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Norwegian Viktor Hovland.

This is only Aberg’s third start in a major after a MC at the PGA and his runner-up in Augusta earlier this year. Hovland on the other hand has five US Opens under his belt with three top 20 finishes.

Both of these guys are popular plays in DFS this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Aberg and Hovland are neck-and-neck at around 14% ownership each.

Tommy Fleetwood -117 ($8500) vs. Justin Thomas -103 ($8900)

Moving down to the $8k range, the sharp oddsmakers have Tommy Fleetwood as a favorite in a head-to-head matchup with Justin Thomas despite a $400 discount on the Englishman in DraftKings DFS pricing.

Tommy has been boom or bust across his eight prior US Open starts with three top fives along with four finishes of 50th or worse. Despite JT’s prowess at the PGA Championship, he hasn’t seen nearly the same success in America’s Open where he has just two top 10s in nine appearances.

The public appears to be tailing the bookies here as Tommy is trending around 15% ownership compared to JT at closer to 10%. But if you’re willing to eat the chalk, Fleetwood might be the better play.

Max Homa -140 ($8600) vs. Cam Smith +115 ($8700)

Let’s stick with the $8k range for our final pairing where Max Homa is a heavy favorite over Cam Smith even though the two are neck and neck in DFS pricing.

Smith began his US Open career with a T4 in 2015 and finished solo fourth last year at LACC — but he did next to nothing in this championship in the six years in between. Homa meanwhile has five prior US Open starts and he’s made the cut only once — a T47 at The Country Club in 2022.

Both Homa and Smith are flying a bit under the radar this week according to our Nut Hut ownership projections. Max is coming in at a surprisingly low 7.5% while Cam is slightly more popular at 10%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We’ve been up so long, I almost forgot what it was like to lose…

Fading Finau on his way to a T8 at Jack’s Place last week proved to be the first bad call we’ve had on the column in a while. So unlike Scheffler, we’re not exactly peaking at the right time heading into a major, but I’m confident we can bounce back nicely this week at Pinehurst.

Given the difficulty of the setup and the historic challenge we’ve come to expect from US Opens, it’s safe to say a handful of the big-name players will struggle to make the weekend — and it’s our job to figure out who.

As a reminder for any first-time readers, the Chalk Bomb is limited to popular picks in DFS — those with a projected ownership of 15% or higher according to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord. That leaves us with a total of six players to choose from among the field of 150+ teeing it up at No. 2 this week.

You can probably guess who tops that list, and no, he is definitely not this week’s Chalk Bomb. But who shall it be?

Let’s start with the analysis by our friends at Bet the Number who have identified some key data points and indicators specific to Pinehurst that should give us an idea of who will (and won’t) perform well this week.

By this point, we’re all familiar with the ‘upside-down saucer’ greens and the tightly-mown chipping areas around No. 2. Hell, you can’t even scroll Twitter for five minutes without seeing a video of golf balls rolling back to the feet of pros putting from well off the green. So it should come as no surprise that SG: Around the Green will be an important stat this week — but the BTN crew has taken it even further.

Their models allow us to filter greenside shots by lie (i.e. fairway, rough, bunker etc.) so we can look at which players are best at getting up and down from the short grass specifically. Looking at SG: ARG from fairway lies over the last 36 rounds, this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks 99th in the field — a sign that he could struggle with the creative pitch shots required at Pinehurst.

Because of the difficult pitching areas around the greens, hitting and holding these Bermuda greens at No. 2 will be especially important. That’s easier to do from the fairway of course, and that’s less-than-good news for this player. Though he’s one of the longest drivers on TOUR, this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks 75th in the field in Driving Accuracy over his last 36 rounds — something he’ll need to fix to avoid the disastrous native areas lurking around the fairways.

On approach, BTN has identified a couple of important yardages that the pros will face more often at Pinehurst than at the average PGA TOUR venue. Players will need to be accurate from long range (200+ yards) as well as between 140 - 190 yards. While the long irons are cooking for this player, (he ranks 10th in the field in GIR % from 200+ out) the low-mid irons have been a struggle. Over his last 36 rounds, this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks 76th in the field in SG: Approach from 140 - 190 yards.

If that data doesn't speak to you, maybe the betting odds will. This player may have the second-best odds to win the tournament outright, but he’s a massive underdog to Scheffler in a 72-hole head-to-head and even a slight underdog to Xander Schauffele.

As the second-most-expensive player on DraftKings at $12,100, anything less than a top-five finish is a poor return on investment, and I think you’re better off spending your salary cap on some of the other big dogs.

It’s hard to believe I’m fading this guy for a record fourth time this year, but at 18.5% ownership, Rory McIlroy… you are the Chalk Bomb once again!

Nilla wafers are probably the most underrated cookie. They also should be used in more dessert concoctions than just banana pudding.

I sometimes wonder if the inventor of the Ring Doorbell was subject to and hated the ring and run prank so much that they just had to end it for good. Well played.

It seems entirely possible to me that I have broken multiple World Records without even knowing it.

Why do pill bottles not have cotton in them anymore? Also…Why would pill bottles even need cotton in the first place?

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the 124th United States of America Open at Pinehurst #2. Happy Fathers Day to all you dads out there. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!