US Open Chalk Bomb 2023

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Earlier this week we thought there could be a potential PM/AM advantage but the latest reports as of Wednesday afternoon appear to have leveled the waves.For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET tonight for our final take on the weather.

Rory McIlroy -156 ($9,900) vs. Brooks Koepka +124 ($10,800)

Whoa Nelly. Brooks strolling into LA with a 1st and 2nd in the opening majors, priced accordingly in DFS at $10,800, and is the third most likely player to win this week accordingly to nearly every odds board in Vegas.That said, he's a substantial dog in the full tournament H2H matchup against Rory here. The line opened with Rory a -125 favorite and has not stopped getting steamed from sharp bettors at the larger market making sportsbooks.According to the latest ownership projections in the Nut Hut Research Center, you can shed some lineups by going with Brooks who is around 13% owned while Rory is climbing as high as 18%. Our head to head matchup simulation reflects similar pricing with Rory a heavy favorite, but how do you take into account how well these players elevate their game in the Majors?

Matt Fitzpatrick -131 ($9,100) vs. Tyrrell Hatton +101 ($8,900)

We highlight this matchup due to the massive shift in price we have seen since the books opened this selection. Hatton was initially a favorite in the matchup before completely flipping to the point where now Fitz is a large favorite in the H2H markets.The Fitzpatrick money is a bit surprising given that Hatton has been the player in much better form of late. In fact, over the last 24 rounds played, only 2 players in the entire field have averaged more strokes gained per round than Tyrrell.We know how fiery and tilting Hatton can get so we expect the US Open conditions to really test his patience. A big thing to consider here is that with Fitz, you have the opportunity to grab a player defending his title, who is also a favorite in the H2H, at about half the projected ownership of Hatton this week.

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Rickie Fowler -133 ($7,500) vs. Max Homa +103 ($9,400)

Slick Rick has been catching some steam from sharp bettors in this matchup and what's really wild is you can grab him at nearly $2,000 in savings in DFS! Wow, that is one of the bigger gaps I have every seen for a -130+ favorite in the H2H markets.It's surprising to me because I have heard many tout the home game and course record narratives with Homa this week and all has seemed relatively quiet on the Rickie fronts. Max has been struggling T2G lately, losing more strokes T2G in his last 24 rounds than any player in the entire field priced above $7,500. Rickie has been +1.3 T2G for the record.The thing is, Rickie is going to very popular, possibly even the 2nd highest owned player in the field this week. Do you want to eat that kind of chalk? I think it comes down to risk/reward and ultimately a decision based on contest selection.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Welcome back to the chalk bomb segment. Last week we selected Matt Fitzpatrick as our chalk bomb for the Canadian Open and I would say received middling results. He ended up finishing T20 but given his ownership and the much better players priced right around, he was a negative if you had him in your lineups last week. Also, props to me for shaming him into removing his braces. Looks good kid.We arrive this week in the heart of Los Angeles feeling confident in our recent selection process for the Chalk Bomb and looking to continue things for the US Open! After extensive research on LACC, I think this place breeds volatility. There are going to be more birdies made than you are used to seeing in the US Open, but this is also a place unlike Oak Hill or Brookline where there are double bogeys lurking. Many native areas both around some of the greens and off the fairways are going to be a coinflip on your lie and whether or not you have an actual shot.The USGA is so unique often times in regards to their course setup and playing style that it makes it tough to compare what we have seen recently on the PGA Tour side to the type of test in store for players this week. This is not Oakdale CC. That said, I want to try and discern if a player has their game and mindset potentially trending in a positive or negative direction overall. Coming into this week with potentially a shaky level of confidence could quickly turn disastrous. The player I have honed in on this week has to have their confidence shaken up a bit, despite some good finishes. I think when they look back at how this past month has played out, there is going to be disappointment undoubtedly.The next thing I really want to closely monitor is how a player has been performing in US Open setups. Don't get me wrong, this player has sprinkled in a few magical rounds in US Opens 5/6 years ago, but in the last 4 editions of the US Open, they have 2 missed cuts and their best finish has been 50th place! This has been a far cry from their expectation level for a player is this caliber.One thing that I really played close attention to at the PGA Championship was the importance of competent and aggressive putting. The speed and slope of these greens is going to be severe, which makes it tough to marry the speed and necessary line to actually hole putts. This player has struggled over the past year with their approach putting, and the unusual for California-style Bent Grass greens that are in place this week are this players worst statistical surface with the flat stick. Sure there have been spike putting weeks for this player, notably last week, but throughout their career it has been an issue which leads me to believe we are due for some regression this week given the greens are vastly different than we saw at Oakdale.On courses with these difficult setups, this player is simply not giving themselves enough good looks at Birdie in order to turn in a good score. They ranked 58th in the field in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds in difficult scoring conditions. Furthermore, they are often fighting a 2 way miss off the tee and they rank in the bottom half of the field in terms of fairways gained on difficult tracks. Lastly, firm fast greens have been a struggle in terms of figuring out shot shapes and appropriate level of spin on approach shots recently. They rank 86th in the field in terms of proximity to hole on courses that feature firm greens. Last week was an absolute melt! There is no positive way to spin it in my opinion. This player completely blew it and these types of things tend to rattle guys and linger into upcoming weeks.Projected at over 18% owned in DFS at the United States Open, Thomas Paul Fleetwood, you are this weeks chalk bomb! 

It's weird that some fruit has hair, and we're ok with it. Like...peaches and kiwi. But if I see a feather in my wings from an Asian place...I am LIVID!DB said on IG stories today that he was mad at sleep after not getting any last night. I empathize. I often find myself wanting to beat the shit out of sleep when I'm tossing and turning in the middle of the night. F you sleep!Tattoos are wild. Imagine the person that first had the idea..."let's take a tiny needle, attach a motor to it, dip it in ink, and draw on ourselves with a million needle pokes."We've been friends with a few PGA TOUR players for a long time, and now they big time us to do stuff with big shows like Foreplay and NLU...I should big time people more. I bet it's fun. Don't be offended if I big time you -- I'm just trying it out.Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy The US Open. I'm on vacation this week, but you're in good hands with DB (kind of). Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!