US Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

US Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

June 12, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop U.S. Open @ Pebble Beach  

The One Event That Makes PGA Pros Look Human

Bome! US Open week... if we don't count the Masters, this is my favorite golf event to WATCH every year in the continental United States. There's something that's just extremely satisfying about watching the best players in the world hack away to scores well over par and see them grinding over double bogey putts just like I do! It's an equally fun DFS week as hard conditions always equal higher variance and (generally) lower 6/6 teams lurking around. This is also your 4 times a year reminder that if your playing in the Millionaire Maker to leave money on the table! 40-50% of your playing peers will max out their salary cap, & another large portion will only leave $100 on the table. The course: I recently heard someone make the point that if Pebble was as 'exclusive' as Augusta National then it would be the ultimate bucket list course instead of the other way around, and it's hard to argue. It's a short course which I absolutely love for major championships, it brings everyone to a fairly level playing field and really opens it up for surprise winners. It's hard to not put a premium on guys that hit lots of greens in reg since Pebble has the smallest greens on tour, and obviously with it being the US Open, missing greens will be highly penal. The books: Interestingly the cut line betting odds are set at just 4 over and the books are projecting the most likely winning score to be in the neighborhood of 5-8 under which is pretty damn low for a US Open. The weather is supposed to be fairly good all week with winds hovering around 10-12 mph most of the tournament. IF* the weather stays good I expect fairly 'low' scores which really changes how you should approach your lineups. With birdies hard to come by, finishing position takes on an added importance, but if the winning scores approach 8 under then you're going to need your birdie makers like a normal tour event. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Snedeker vs. Lowry 

Two of the most interesting non-big name guys this week, both Snedeker & Lowry have a LOT of the same converging trends at Pebble. Both guys have elite history at Pebble...Brandt has won here twice and since 2013 only has 1 year in which he was below field average in GIR hit %. While Shane doesn't have the high finishes like Brandt, he's actually 2nd in the field in GIR% at Pebble (min 6 rounds)...better than ALL the big names. The only thing that has held Shane back so far at Pebble is in 5 tries he's lost strokes putting every of the times (as Kevin from the Office would say). While neither guy is in the 10 facts much, both guys play significantly better on tough courses compared to their baselines (especially Brandt) while also playing well in the wind.  Did I mention both players have great poa putting numbers? The form is also there as they both finished in the top 4 last week. My ONLY concern is that Shane gained 11.7 of his 14.1 strokes last week in the short game and Brandt gained 9.5 of his 12.1 total strokes in the same manner. As an added bonus their DFS price is just below 'chalk alley' so even with all this they should probably be under-owned. 

MATCHUP 2

Finau vs. Simpson

You don't have to be a rocket surgeon to see the really big DFS value with Webb this week. Not only is he expected to the win the matchup 58% of the time, but he's also $700 cheaper than Finau. Finau actually has decent tee to green history at Pebble as he's hit 71, & 74% of his greens but the consistency that made him a plug & play the last 2 years in DFS has really eluded him all season. In 12 shotlink events he's gained over 2.2 strokes tee to green on the field just 3 times, and all 3 times just so happened to be on 'bombers' courses. The real issue seems to be his accuracy off the tee as he's been sub 48% in fairways hit in 4 straight events...something that you certainly need in a US Open. But for the record, he does play better on difficult courses, has good poa splits, and plays well in the wind. Webb on the other hand, will likely be one of the heaviest owned players in the field due to the quartet of cheap price, good form, good fit, & better than you think history (though it is 'old' history). He's top 10 in the field in par 4 scoring, pops up both times in the custom models for the 10 facts, and is top 10 in the field in bogey avoidance. At 7700 Webb's price to floor is almost unbeatable. 

MATCHUP 3

Rose vs. Scott

I tried to pick the lines with the largest DFS value that also had players of interest involved. Adam Scott is $1100 cheaper than Rose, yet a H2H pickem this week. Rose has played 'ok' this year but in 6 of his last 9 events he's actually lost you value when you take into account his always high DFS price. Rose has played fairly well in US Opens, with a win, & 2 other top 12's in the last 6 years. But there's also the counter point's of negative poa splits, loses a tiny bit against his baseline on hard courses, and has really really poor wind stats. Adam Scott comes in off his best tee to green performance of the year at the Memorial gaining 16.1 strokes against the field, has incredibly gained strokes putting in every single event this year, AND is top 10 ten in the field in strokes gained putting on poa...yes, we are still talking about THAT Adam Scott. Now for the box score checkers your going to see 3 missed cuts here & a 52nd in 4 tries, but what those people don't see is that twice Adam was in the top 5 in GIR's hit in the field in two of those. 

MATCHUP 4

Koepka vs. Cantlay

Once again massive DFS value with Cantlay being $1600 cheaper than Brooks but is close to a pickem in H2H markets across the industry. I've said this what seems like 100 times but I'm still not sure that people realize just how good Cantlay is. His tee to green game was elite last year and a bulky putter was really the only thing that held him back. Since the Safeway last year, something clicked with the flat stick and he's gained an average of 1.5 strokes per event putting. While his finishes at Pebble haven't been all that great, he's actually has elite GIR %'s here all 3 times he's played. We'll get to Brooks in a minute...

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: (I could have easily picked 4 other players this week)

  • Last week he had his lowest strokes gained tee to green event since the Players

  • His strokes gained putting #'s since the start of the season, notice the volatility: (-1.5), (-5.7), 3.9, (-2.2), 1.7, 6, 1.1, (-1.6)

  • He has a negative poa putting split (3.5 strokes gained on average per event total, 2.9 on poa)

  • He loses almost half a stroke against his baseline on short courses

  • He's amazingly #114 in the field in double bogeys avoided 

  • He's #116 in the field in fairways gained

  • He ranks outside of the top 30 in both of the two main approach shot buckets (100-125 & 200+)

  • He's one of the worst wind players in the field. Over his last 100 rounds, he's 107th in the field in total strokes gained in windy 'AF' conditions 

  • He's actually under performed (5 times) his salary expectations more often that he's over performed (4 times) this season

  • There's 3 players that are cheaper than him in price that are head to head favorites against him

  • He's 74th in the field in total approach shot proximity for the 2019 PGA season

  • He's 119th on the PGA tour in strokes gained around the green for the 2019 PGA season

  • He's 103rd on the PGA tour for driving accuracy for the 2019 PGA season

  • For an 'elite' ball striker he has a very poor par 3 scoring average.....& this is including all the people you've never heard of, he's in the bottom 1/3 of the field

  • He's 40th in the field in strokes gained tee to green on short courses

  • At the end of the day he's just a really poor value, does that mean he can't be super human & win again? Absolutely not, in fact that would be the cognitive bias of the gamblers fallacy (roulette wheel hitting black 5 times in a row & you 'knowing' that a red is coming next, when in reality it's still a 50-50 proposition) in fact I'd say he'll win the event about 4-5% of the time, but again that just means he's a terrible value as the highest priced player in the field

  • All it takes for this guy to 'fail' is a finish outside of the top 6, which he's +187 to finish IN the top 5 which means he's expected to finish OUTside the top 5 65% of the time. Two out of three times....I'll roll those dice every time

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 17.9% this week....Brooks Koepka, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from this years AT&T (remember we only get 2 rounds):

1. Mickelson 2. Furyk 3. Day 4. S.W. Kim 5. Casey 6. Kuchar 7. Stuard 8. McDowell 9. Glover 10. Lashley

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at Pebble, (THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACT OF THE WEEK, min 6 rounds which means they've played in 3 ATT&T's the last 5 years)

 1. Furyk 2. Lowry 3. Horschel 4. Spieth 5. Prugh 6. Sabbatini 7. Mickelson 8. McDowell 9. Day 10. Stuard 

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

1. Day 2. DJ 3. Ortiz 4. C. Smith 5. Hurley III 6. Mickelson 7. Kisner 8. Spieth 9. Donald 10. R. Lee

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ short, difficult courses.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. DJ 2. Matsuyama 3. Watson 4. Scott 5. Furyk 6. Kuchar 7. Day 8. Simpson 9. RCB 10. Spieth ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST short courses that have long rough, your top 10 in strokes gained T2G are:

1. Watson 2. Day 3. Casey 4. McIIroy 5. Simpson 6. Bradley 7. Si W Kim 8. Reavie 9. Stenson 10. Furyk

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 100-125 yardage bucket, and the 200+ bucket last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Stuard? 2. Lashley 3. McIIroy 4. Schauffele 5. Hadley 6. Fox 7. Na 8. Woods 9. DJ 10. Matsuyama

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Pebble, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Koepka 2. Hatton 3. Scott 4. DJ 5. Horschel 6. Prugh 7. Straka 8. Woods 9. Scheffler 10. Na (Rory would be next)

8.

 S

trokes gained on the par 4's rated the highest in importance at Pebble so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 4's:

1. DJ 2. Rose 3. JT 4. Simpson 5. Fowler 6. Rahm 7. Cantlay 8. Woods 9. Day 10. Koepka

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Matsuyama 2. McIIroy 3. Casey 4. Na 5. Vegas 6. Cantlay 7. Li 8. Koepka 9. JT 10. Bradley

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. DeChambeau 2. JT 3. Schauffele 4. Mickelson 5. Rose 6. Oosthuizen 7. Garcia 8. Molinari 9. Rahm 10. Scott

11.

If I drop the min rounds from 6 to 4 for historical GIR leaders at Pebble the list changes quite a bit (which means they have played the ATT&T at least twice in the last 5 years) small sample size rules apply*:

 1. Furyk 2. Woodland 3. Casey 4. Lowry 5. Scott 6. Finau 7. Grace 8. Rahm 9. Horschel 10. Spieth

12.

Total strokes gained in US Opens the last 5 years

: 1. Koepka 2. DJ 3. Oosthuizen 4. Reed 5. Fleetwood 6. Furyk 7. Grace 8. Snedeker 9. Spieth 10. Matsuyama

13.

Though he's only played the last two years

, Xander Schauffele has averaged just as many total strokes gained on the field per year as Brooks Koepka

14.

List of players that haven't missed a cut at the US Open the last 5 years (min 2 appearances):

Koepka, Oosthuizen, Fleetwood, Furyk, Grace, Z. Johnson, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, Poulter, Cabrera Bello, Baddeley, Li.......thats it, 12 players!

15. Strokes gained putting leaders last 50 rounds on Poa that you actually care about:

1. Day 2. DJ 3. Mickelson 4. Kisner 5. Spieth 6. Scott???? 7. Snedeker 8. JT 9. CH3 10. RCB

16.

Bottom 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

1. Pepperell 2. Koepka 3. Holmes 4. Sabbatini 5. Noren 6. CT Pan 7. Ancer 8. Mitchell 9. Dufner 10. DJ

17. Top 10 in Bogey avoidance on difficult courses last 50 rounds:

1. Fowler 2. Spieth 3. DJ 4. Fleetwood 5. Matsuyama 6. Simpson 7. Koepka 8. Cantlay 9. JT 10. Kuchar

18.

Bottom 10 in bogey avoidance on difficult courses last 50 rounds (guys you care about):

1. Sabbatini 2. Fitzpatrick 3. Lowry 4. Berger 5. Dufner 6. Schauffele 7. Scott 8. McDowell 9. Holmes 10. Ancer

19.

Top 10 in windy 'AF' conditions last 50 rounds (Total strokes gained):

1. DJ 2. Kuchar 3. Berger 4. Fowler 5. Garcia 6. Casey 7. McIIroy 8. Day 9. Watson 10. Furyk

20. According to Data Golf the 10 biggest course history adjustments are:

1. Woods 2. DJ 3. Snedeker 4. Walker 5. Saunders 6. McDowell 7. Holmes 8. Castro 9. Prugh 10. Reed

21. Highest GIR % of guys that don't play full time on the PGA tour last 6 weeks:

1. Scheffler 2. Straka 3. Arnaus 4. Toms 5. Burmester 6. Walters 7. Hovland 8. Todd 9. Kinhult 10. Pavon

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"I've been called the songbird of my generation for those that have heard me...& Jason Day will be my song of choice this weekend"

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