America's National Championship

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

It's always a rare treat in betting & DFS when we get a non-Masters major that appears on a course that we have lots of data and knowledge about. Torrey & Pebble Beach are the only 2 US Open venues for the foreseeable future that are PGA Tour mainstay stops. There's already been plenty of scuttlebutt about the way the course is going to be different from its Farmers Open layout. We've also heard plenty of whispers about the USGA changing its formula after the way Bryson 'bombed & gouged' his way to victory last year. (which is #FakeNews, because even if Bryson gained zero strokes off the tee last year he still wins by at least 2 shots). Torrey is plenty difficult without the USGA doing its usual torture methods, and I would guess that they want par to be a great score for the day. If we look back at 2008 the low rounds of the tourney were 1 round of 65, 1 round of 66, 2 rounds of 67, 8 rounds of 68. The sportsbooks have the following lines up:

Cut over/under:+6 or over 5/6+5 Exactly 2/1+4 or under 10/3Players under par:9 & over 2/14-8 7/43 & under 6/4Lowest Tournament Round:66 & over 6/465 Exactly 17/1064 & under 2/1

For DFS specifically though, birdie or better is still very much going to come into play this week. Even in 2008 with Tiger & Rocco at -1, a good chunk of the top 10 made between 12-15 birdies w/ quite a few eagles dispersed over the field. For US Open's everyone tends to make the mistake of going with the 'safer' guys that grind pars out, but those 5-6 birdie differences between 2 guys that both end the tournament at 1 over par is the difference of 15-18 DK points. That's plenty of difference to knock you from 1st place in a big GPP to outside of the top 50. The cut is top 60 & ties this week, and with great difficulty comes even greater variance. The 6/6 *should* be extremely low this week. And once again, this is your friendly 4 times a year reminder to leave money on the table! Do not use your full 50k salary!

The weather looks damn near perfect all week. It gets a little bit gusty mid-afternoon every day but that's very standard for the area. I don't see any wave advantage but if your super-duper stuck between two guys I would use either a super early or super late tee time on Thursday as your tiebreaker.  

(Image courtesy of DataGolf) Pretty stark course fit this week that I expect the USGA to make even more extreme. At a normal Farmers Open, the driving accuracy % is 52% vs. 62% PGA Event average. I expect that to dip below 50% this week, and just like at Winged Foot if everyone is going to miss a ton of fairways, that only gives the bombers a bigger edge. Now the only saving grace for the shorter guys is that you can also putt your way to victory at Torrey (see: Snedeker, B). According to DataGolf, putting at Torrey has historically made up 40% of a players scoring variation vs the field. It would not shock me if that was even higher this week. I can confirm from personal experience that there is a surprising amount of slope in the greens, and with them playing firm & fast w/ the always wildcard Poa factor I could easily see someone break-even in strokes gained tee to green & still have a top 10 finish. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Oosthuizen vs. Berger

Berger -108 vs. Oosthuizen -104

Slight DFS value on ole Oosty this week since he's $300 cheaper than Berger yet the H2H pickem. Berger burned a lot of people at the PGA as the highest owned player in most contest, but he bounced right back at the Charles Schwab almost gaining strokes across the board. Even considering that, his ownership this week is projected to be about half of what it was at the PGA even though nothing has really changed. Poa is far & away his best putting surface (won at Pebble this year), but for some reason, he's just never putted well at Torrey which explains his fairly poor course history. In 4 attempts here he's never averaged less than 29.5 putts per round. He has a decent US Open track record as well, making his last 3 cuts while gaining 14.6 strokes against the field. Sweet Lou, who is NEVER highly owned, will most likely have his highest or 2nd highest ownership week in at least 3 years. He's presently #1 on tour for strokes gained putting in the 2021 season, and has made the most of what has been fairly normal ball-striking weeks. Consider that since the Farmers, he's gained more than 3 strokes tee to green exactly 2 times this year, I see some hidden risk. The flip side is that his US Open track record speaks for itself, as only Brooks & Xander have gained more total strokes in the last 5 years in our National Championship. Poa also happens to be his best-putting surface. 

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MATCHUP 2

Finau vs. Spieth

 Finau -127 vs. Spieth +113

Of all the players in the field, I can tell you without a doubt that the sportsbooks have jacked up the juice on Finau more than any other player in the field. Consider that he's the H2H favorite over Spieth, Cantlay, Reed, JT, Koepka, Morikawa, Rory, Scheffler, Hatton, Zalatoris. Why? I suppose you could start with his course history at Torrey South. He's a perfect 7-7 in cuts made w/ 4 top 10 finishes. He historically gains strokes putting on Poa. He historically gains strokes against his baseline on difficult courses. He has 2 top 10's in his last 3 US Opens. He's gained at least 8.6 strokes tee to green in 3 straight events. He's 20th in the field in birdie or better gained, and 10th in bogey avoidance. So what's the rub? Well, I expect him to be the highest owned player in the field this week. Sorry, you're not being sneaky. The other bad news? Well, he's *only* lost 10.2 strokes putting his last 2 events combined. And if our course fit breakdown didn't make it crystal clear, you're going to have to putt really well this week. Jordan almost feels like the forgotten man at Torrey. All he's done is gain strokes in every category 4 out of his last 5 events and continues to make positive strides off the tee. Yea, his DFS price is #pooey this week, but I've seen ownership projections in the sub 10% range which is crazy. This is just your friendly reminder that Spieth is still #1 in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds. 

MATCHUP 3

DeChambeau vs. McIIroy

DeChambeau -114 vs. McIIroy +101

Rory popped up a LOT in the 20 stats this week: #1 in the field in GIR's hit at Torrey South, #1 in the total strokes model, #1 in the ball striking model, finished top 10 in his last 2 US Opens, #1 in ball striking on courses over 7400 yards, #6 in strokes gained T2G in difficult scoring conditions, #8 in birdie or better gained the last 50 rounds. I haven't seen too many people talking about Rory as a great course fit, but it's darn near perfect. Earlier this year at the Farmer's he led the field in GIR's hit at almost 80%! (for reference Reed was at 61%) Rory's approach play has been the best it's been in a long time in the last 3 events, gaining no less than 4.1 strokes. The short game has started to come back around, and in the last 2 events he gained any strokes around the green & putting in the same week, he finished in the top 6. 

Again, if you go back to the course fit opener, driving distance & putting are your 2 areas of focus this week. If there's anything Bryson consistently does well most weeks, it's drive the ball & putt it. He hasn't played here since 2018, and really any course history for Bryson pre-summer 2019 I consider largely irrelevant since he's a completely different player. Torrey was already well suited for Bryson, but I expect the USGA setup to favor him, even more, this go around just like at Winged Foot. 

Other interesting lines:Rahm -153 vs. DJ +136Casey -110 vs. Zalatoris -102DJ -111 vs. DeChambeau -101X -126 vs. DJ +112Cantlay -117 vs. Spieth +104Reed -135 vs. Hatton +120Finau -116 vs. JT +103Scheffler -121 vs. Zalatoris +107Simpson -122 vs. Lowry +108C Smith -111 vs. Lowry -101Niemann -113 vs. Conners +100Streelman -109 vs. Cink -103Griffin -154 vs. Champ +136Hoffman -145 vs. Im +129

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He has the 10th worst GIR% at Torrey of all relevant players with at least 8 rounds played

• In his last 2 US Opens he's done most of his damage with the putter gaining 14.2 strokes putting

• Since the start of the wrap-around season, here are his strokes gained T2G #'s: (-2.1), (-1.4), 3, 6, 0.1, 2.9, 11, 1.4

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 50th in the field in birdie or better

• He's a pick-em against 2 other guys that will have 50% of his ownership

• He's 52nd in the field in my total driving rank (distance +fairways gained)

• He's 58th in the field in proximity from 200+ yards & 175-200 yards

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's 64th in the field in good drives gained

• This will either be his highest or 2nd ownership week in at least 3 years

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 55th in strokes gained OTT & 41st in approach

• He loses strokes against his baseline on courses over 7400 yards

• He loses strokes against his baseline on difficult to hit fairway courses

• He slightly loses strokes against his baseline on courses with long rough

• Over his last 50 rounds on difficult scoring courses, he loses strokes against his baseline

At 17% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (5th highest) Sweet Lou you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Is actual handwriting starting to become a long-lost art and form of communication?  Everything is typed now and electronic and I think humans might be developing very lazy hands. I wrote a paragraph the other day on a note pad and my hand got tired after the 3

sentence. Maybe I’m the only one concerned with this but it’s alarming.

Most of you may not know this, but I’m a very accomplished gardener (ok, not really, I am mostly just good at assisting my wife and doing what she tells me to do in the garden, but still). One of the things that seems to be vital to vegetable gardening is water. That said, sometimes it rains too much, and it makes gardening more difficult because it can affect the roots and other stuff. That’s some mother nature BS if you ask me. You can’t be playing tricks like that. Just let all rain be good rain and leave it at that damnit. It’s hard enough to grow shit.

I miss the old “home” button on the iPhone.

I think whoever came up with a “smoothie” just didn’t want to call the substance they made up what it really is. A fruit soup.  

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the 121

U.S. Open at Torrey Pines South this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!