Let the Carnage Begin

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Bome! US Open week...if we don't count the Masters this is my favorite golf event to WATCH every year in the continental United States. There's something that's just extremely satisfying about watching the best players in the world hack away to scores well over par and see them grinding over double bogey putts just like I do! It's an equally fun DFS week as hard conditions always equal higher variance and will certainly equal low 6 of 6 lineups with only top 60 & ties making the weekend. 

The course: According to the 15th Club, 'Of US Open venues to host the championship 3 or more times since 1970, Winged Foot has yielded the highest scoring average, at 75.45.' In 06' Geoff Ogilvy famously won with zero rounds under par and a brutal cut line of PLUS 10. When you get into the meat of the stats from 2006 it looks like what your average 12 handicap would do for a normal round of golf. Driving accuracy: 50%, tour avg (62%), GIR: 52%, tour avg (65%), Scrambling: 40%!!, tour avg (58%), avg 3 putts per round: 1, tour avg (0.55). For the entirety of the event, there were 766 birdies, 2622 bogeys, & 306 doubles or worse. By my count there will be 9 par 4's that play between 451 yards to 504 yards, 3 par 3's that will play over 212 yards (BTW, love betting 'NO' on will there be a hole in one at even money), and one of the two par 5's will play over 630 yards. The primary rough (1st cut) will be around 3.5 inches while the real rough will be at '5+ inches.' The good news for the players is that the greens have been enlarged back to their original AJ Tillinghast design which is 23% larger than what 2006 players faced. 3 putt avoidance was key in 2006 & I expect that to be even more important this go around. A quick top 10 in 3 putt avoidance the last calendar year since this didn't make the 20 facts: 1. Kuchar 2. Rahm 3. Hatton 4. Simpson 5. Scott 6. Snedeker 7. Harman 8. Fitz 9. Reed 10. English

One more stat that I'm looking at that didn't make the 20 facts is proximity out of the rough, your current top 10 is: 1. DJ 2. Streelman 3. Watson 4. Finau 5. Si Woo 6. Casey 7. Hovland 8. Dahmen 9. Glover 10. Berger

This is also your friendly reminder that if your playing in the Millionaire Maker to leave money on the table! 40-50% of your playing peers will max out their salary cap, & another large portion will only leave $100 on the table. Making birdies is going to be far, far less important this week and your finishing position points much, much more important. Not to keep harping on 2006, but only 1 hole (the 5th, 'shorter' par 5) was the only hole that played under par for the week. Par is a good score on every hole. 

Tough to do a lot of course fit analysis on these major rota courses but I think we can pick up on a couple of clues. I was very surprised to see that driving distance (though always important) didn't have MORE relative importance at Winged Foot in 06'. In fact, the only thing that did have more relative importance was around the green play, which makes a lot of sense when the field is missing 50% of their greens. The 2 most important ABSOLUTE skills are still driving distance and approach play. 

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

JT vs. DJ

JT -110 vs. DJ -102

Surprised at the price? You probably shouldn't be. JT has been favored over DJ in H2H markets almost every week since the re-start. If you take out the Northern Trust for the last 5 events that both of these guys have played (remember DJ nuked the field that week), JT has actually gained more strokes tee to green than DJ in those other 4 events. Or if you INCLUDE the Northern Trust, over the last 36 rounds, JT has STILL gained 6 more strokes tee to green than DJ, despite the fact that DJ has won 3 times in that span to JT's 1. The putters have been the biggest separator between these two, and it's interesting that both guy's best surfaces are poa. Over his last 5 events JT has AVERAGED -2.4 strokes putting, while DJ has AVERAGED +3.2 strokes putting, that's a monster difference. For once I actually like the way that DK priced DJ, anything short of where he is would have pushed him into mega chalk territory. I still think you're going to get a pretty good ownership discount on JT, plus you obviously get the $800 in savings as well. 

MATCHUP 2

Harry vs. Oost

Harry -122 vs. Oost +109

Not that this price should surprise you, Harry is $300 more expensive than Lou this week, but I wanted to break these 2 down because I expect both to be fairly popular & fairly sneaky. Dollar for dollar Harry might be one of my favorite plays this week because his game should be a great fit for this super-tough setup. He's 5th in the field in strokes gained around the green, 17th in putting (he's both a good putter on bent & poa), doubles his strokes gained per round on difficult setups, and has been in good form basically every week since the restart. He's long enough (averaging around 300 off the tee), & is 12th in the field in good drives gained the last 50 rounds. Not to mention he's 3rd in the field in bogey avoidance & 9th in the field in strokes gained on par 4's measuring 450-500 yards which there are 9 of those this week, or half the holes! Lou has also found some form recently gaining strokes off the tee & on approach shots in 4 straight. Poa is far & away his best putting surface, he plays his best golf in tough conditions and is 2nd in the field in total strokes gained in US Opens the last 5 years behind only DJ. One other fun note is that BOTH guys rank in the top 10 on tour in scrambling from the rough. 

MATCHUP 3

Berger vs. Matsuyama

Berger +102 vs. Matsuyama -114

Now this line I AM surprised on. I know I've been beating the drum to the Daniel Berger bandwagon, particularly in head to head markets, and I think the books are once again not giving him the credit he deserves. Berger (who is already a good putter) has a massive positive spread on Poa versus all other surfaces. He kind of checked out at the Tour Champ but still gained 2.6 strokes on approach shots & has gained strokes around the green in 7 of his last 8 events. He's a good total driver of the ball having gained strokes in every single full field event in 2020, and the last US Open he played in healthy (at a very difficult Shinnock) he finished 6th. I think Hideki is the much more interesting case, & here's why: 1. I didn't like him at the BMW (tough course, very similar to this week) because his driving accuracy had been so poor, well, he hit 39% of his fairways but gained an otherworldly 6.1 strokes around the green. To give you a point of reference, Jon Rahm the winner that week hit 70% of his greens in reg, Hideki hit 51%. The unfortunate truth is the only way you gain that many strokes around the green is you have to miss a lot of greens vs the field. Now to his credit, he's always been a great scrambler AND he's top 10 on tour in chipping in this year. But all the same concerns I had 3 weeks ago are still there. He's still being REALLY wild off the tee, he's actually gained strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 which we know usually mean reverts for him (though again in fairness, if you look really, really hard, he actually gains 0.005 strokes per round on poa for his career) and for Hideki, he's been good, not great on approach shots, averaging just 1.6 strokes gained per event his last 5. 

Other interesting lines:Zalatoris -120 vs. Reavie +100Si Woo -106 vs. Kaymer -106Fitz -112 vs. Rose +100Reed -107 vs. Finau -105Webb -108 vs. DeChambeau -104Schauffele -122 vs. Morikawa +108Kuchar -145 vs. Kaymer +125Hatton -120 vs. Scott +100Rose -110 vs. Fowler -110

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost total strokes around the green his last 4 events

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 3 straight events

• Over his last 3 events, he's gained a TOTAL of +0.4 strokes tee to green

• He loses strokes against his baseline for ball striking on difficult to hit fairway courses

• Over his last 50 rounds on difficult courses, he loses strokes against his baseline tee to green

• On par 70's he loses strokes against his baseline

• On courses over 7400 yards, he slightly loses strokes against his baseline

• For the last calendar year, he's 96th on tour for scrambling out of the rough

• For the last calendar year, he's 166th on tour for proximity of approach shots out of the rough

• Of his 277 approach shots out of the rough this year, his score to par is....31 OVER par

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 68th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 95th in the field in fairways gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 56th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 54th in the field in par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 89th in the field for the 2 main approach shot buckets

• While he is a good putter, he's streaky, having lost strokes putting in 2020 in 40% of his events

• This is projected to be his highest ownership in a full-field event since Feb of 2018

At 17.7% actual FNGC LU Gen % (6th highest, though have seen him #1 in other places), Patrick Reed, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

You know what annoys me. Getting gas. No, not flatulence. I’m talking about gas for my vehicle. When I go to get gas I don’t want to have to answer all those F’n questions. Is this a debit card? What is your zip code? Do you want a car wash? Pisses me off. Just let me put in my card and give me my damn gas so I can move on.

You know something else that annoys the shit out of me? Self check out lines at the grocery store. First off, nobody seems to understand how to operate the touch screen which isn’t all that difficult. Secondly, they always seem to malfunction also because of the stupid weight sensor in the bagging area. Then on top of everything else, when you’re buying alcohol it almost never fails that it will take forever for the attendant to come check your ID. I’ll just take my chances with the traditional check out line. Plus people bag stuff for you, which is nice.

In this time of Covid there’s a new issue that is sweeping the nation. It’s called Zoom Video shaming, and it needs to stop. If I don’t want to be on video I don’t have to be ok? Don’t shame me for it. Go pound sand, or better yet, go look in a mirror since you’re so excited to see yourself on screen.

Alright, that's all I got folks! Enjoy the 120th US Open on this incredible course at Winged Foot. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!