US Open

The Conjunction Fallacy & the Anchoring Effect (not Anchored Putting)

I'm going to apologize in advance for sharing this information with you. It's a bit like taking the red pill in the Matrix, to quote Morpheus, 'After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill (close your browser)—the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill—you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember: all I'm offering is the truth.' Once you process it, and understand it, you will come to realize just how much of golf analysis is littered with the conjunction fallacy (from some sources it's 100%!) and just how damaging the anchoring effect can be.Before we get into the nuts & bolts, lets have a fun experiment. I'm going to ask you 3 questions to test your intuitions and see just how smart you are:1a. Do you think the population of the huge South American country (& one of the favorites to win the upcoming World Cup) of Argentina is greater or fewer than 90 million? 1b. Now guess the total population of Argentina (remember your number)2. Bob is a branch manager at a prestigious bank. He enjoys fine wines, a good cigar, tucked in shirts, gated communities and also owns a European sports car. He enjoys a very refined social life and likes to have fun. Which is more probable?A. Bob plays golfB. Bob plays golf and is a member of prestigious country club3. Choose between getting $500 for sure or a 5% chance of getting $20000A. Getting $500B. 5% chance of getting $20000NOW, lets see how you did! Question 1: The first question (1a) was literally there just to throw you off. I'm guessing very few or zero of you are intimately familiar with the populations of South American countries. You needed a point of reference in your mind, anything really, from what you know about Argentina and it's people, culture, shape, geographic size etc, but again the population of South American countries probably isn't in your head. BUT what was in your head was the red herring I threw at you in 1a, making you guess over/under 90 million (your point of reference since you probably didn't have one, aka the 'anchor'). I'd bet that it influenced your answer to 1b, because when you have no other information to go on, you focus on what little information you do have (even if its dead wrong or WAY off). The population of Argentina is 44 million people btw, and if your like most people you probably guessed something much higher. This is an example of the anchoring effect. Now think about how many times you've heard a piece of 'info' on a golfer or course that anchored your thinking way off of where it should have been.Question 2:Most people will guess option B, and most people would be incorrect. This is know in psychology as the 'Linda' problem, or conjunction fallacy (also sometimes called the narrative fallacy). If you stopped & thought about it logically, are their more golfers in the world, or are there more golfers that ALSO are members of prestigious country club's? Put that way the answer is simple, of course there are more total golfers in the world, making A the correct choice. Just think about how problematic this can be in your weekly analysis of golfers & how easy it is to over think it, hell I'm even guilty of it when I write this article! Here is a visual aid to help:Question 3:I'm hoping that the crowd that reads this article beats the baseline for selecting option B. The EV, or expected value of 5% of 20k =1000, twice as much as the 'guaranteed' $500. The best DFS players & traders in the world know these propositions are the exact ones that the 'public' gets wrong, and are key for long term success. We'll hit on these in more detail in the coming weeks, but seeing as how majors like the US Open, Open Championship, & PGA will often play on unfamiliar courses, we generally get a very large dose of narrative fallacy along with several other cognitive fallacies that get broadcasted to the masses these weeks. So check yo self. Also if you got all 3 questions right, tweet at me @TRUmav & I'll send you a special prize. 

Finding Value & Information in Head to Head Matchups

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. Last week we highlighted DJ being a huge favorite over several guys that were in better form & had great course history (Koepka/Stenson), & in general I've been extremely happy with the matchups that we have highlighted every week. It ended up being a great clue as to where the sharp money was & what the books were expecting. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week: BTW, LOTS of great matchups/info this week!While JT just saw his short lived rein at world #1 end, he's still a decent dog to Mr. Rose, who is arguably having the best season of his career even though he's only won once. Rose is statistically much more accurate off the tee than JT is and generally holds very slight advantages in most of the other categories as well (not to mention he's won a US Open before). You can basically pick your DJ line this week, as the books are once again very bullish on him against the entire top 10 in the world golf rankings. Justin Rose is the only player that isn't at least a -150 dog to DJ in head to head's. As far as Day, he continues to be a statistical anomaly as he's top 15 in strokes gained off the tee, is the best putter in the world, yet every single tournament loses strokes approach (even when he wins!) which always accounts for the highest percentage of your scoring. This line surprised me, as I would have guessed it would have been at least a pickem or had Stenson as a slight favorite. Both these guys T2G games is elite, it just all boils down to the flatstick. Spieth continues to nose dive with the putter as he has all year, & is now 190th on the tour for the season behind guys like Lucas Glover! Stenson comes in as the most accurate driver of the ball in the field (even better than Steve Stricker) & has a nice track record of playing well at tough courses. Relatively speaking though the books are down on the Swed this week compared to several other top players which is interesting.Tiger is an underdog in every head to head this week, but I though this one was interesting because Rahm is an underdog against Spieth, but Spieth is only -130 against Woods. Tiger seems to have the driver finally working for him again as he's hit 63% & 71% of his fairways the last two events (albeit at less than driver courses). I'm bullish on both Rahm & Woods this week, but again the books are pricing Tiger as the lesser commodity this week vs the guys in his salary range.Probably the most surprising line so far, as Bryson is playing the best golf of his young career w/ 4 top 4 finishes in his last 7 events & fresh off a win at the Memorial his last time out. Bryson also is 11th in strokes gained off the tee this year, while Grace is only 66th. But if you take a little closer look, Grace has been playing really good golf the last month....let me rattle off his GIR #'s the last 4 events: 73%, 74%, 79%, & 75%....those are really strong. Grace also historically played really well on tough courses & in US Opens, which the books seem to be pricing in. This line was also extremely surprising, not so much because Webb is the favorite, but because he's such a big favorite & is $500 cheaper on DK. Again you see the theme of the books giving the edge to guys with good track records at US Open setups. Neither one has played great the last calendar month as Webb missed his only cut after the Players win, & Bubba has gone 57th, 44th since the Masters. If you drill into Webb's numbers, he has been very accurate at least than driver courses, but has been very IN-accurate at driver courses, while Bubba has all his best results on long, driver heavy courses (duh). These are the lines that can really give you great leverage over the field in big gpp's. Finau is projected to be one of the chalkier players, and granted he is $400 cheaper than Scott on DK, but the books have this as a pickem. I don't see anywhere currently that has Scott projected at more than 8% owned, which will probably end up at minimum as half the ownership that Finau will have. Scott's tee to green game is about as good as it gets right now, and with the change back to the long putter, all he has to do is basically break even with the flatstick to put up a great result. You'll once again see the common theme here of guys with good US Open history that have played well on links style courses being the favorite over guys with better recent form. After a terrible first part of the season, Lowry has slowly started to come around, and even though he doesn't have any great results the ball striking is there, & just needs the short game to be break even. With this being a major championship we could spend all day breaking down the 100's of matchups, but I greatly encourage you to do your own homework as well. Hell, open up a dang account & realize the value that is being provided each & every week! And don't forget to use your promo code 'TOURJUNKIES' for a 50% deposit bonus

THE Chalk Bomb

Major weeks are always the easiest/hardest weeks to do the chalk bomb. They're easy because they're so unpredictable and generally the course is a big unknown making the chalk that much more likely to bomb. They're also hard because the pricing is always soft, making for very few 20%+ owned players. In fact as we sit here right now, fansharesports.com only has 4 players currently projected at over 20% ownership, & two of those players I can't really find any reason to fade other than golf is random as shit & random things happen all the time. This weeks chalk bomb is a familar face.....these are the things we know as FACTS (no anchoring here!)1. He is the least accurate driver of the golf ball of everyone 7.5k & up the last 6 weeks of play.2. According to a study done by our friends over at datagolf.com, he is 3rd worst in the field on 'tough courses' compared to his baseline performance3. Over his last 5 events he has averaged -1.4 strokes gained approach, which is generally where you get the bulk of your scoring from4. Of everyone above 8.7k, this guy has hit the least number of greens his last 6 events.5. (This one isn't a fact, but an interesting narrative from our boy CH3)-If you get bumpy poa, it really takes the advantage away from really good putters, well, this guy really has to putt well to contend.Our first repeat Chalk Bomb, Mr. Bullet Proof Nike Vest No Collar Wearing Jason Day!

10 Facts(1a. Someone told Pat & David that these photo shoots were a good idea)

1. It might seem like it's DJ verse the field, but for him to finish top 5 currently is +185, almost 2 to 1 on your money, he's anything but a sure thing. I think people always forget that as long as one & only one 10k plus player finishes higher than him, you can be profitable fading him in gpp's. 2. My favorite bet this week might be betting the no on 'will there be a hole in one' at -120. There's really only one 'short' par 3 & its not an easy hole. If you get through Thursday & Friday you'll only have 60 guys firing at that one, in which case the odds probably go to -275. 3. Last 12 rounds your strokes gained off the tee leaders are: 1. Woodland 2. Frittelli 3. Koepka 4. Bubba 5. DJ 6. Scott 7. Benny An 8. List 9. Steele 10. Dufner4. Last 12 rounds your strokes gained approach leaders are: 1. TW! 2. Berger (wouldn't have guessed that) 3. Stanley 4. Walker 5. DJ 6. Scott 7. Rose 8. Stenson 9. Piercy 10. Casey5. Bottom 10 (relevant guys) in ball striking (OTT+APP) the last 12 rounds are: 1. Kisner 2. Haas 3. Levy 4. Snedeker 5. Ollie 6. Beef 7. Mullinax 8. Xander 9. Si Woo 10. Hatton6. Top 10 Poa putters relative to their baseline: 1. Scott Stallings 2. Bubba 3. Vegas 4. Rodgers 5. Cam Smith 6. DJ 7. JT 8. Hadley 9. Piercy 10. Finau7. Bottom 10 Poa putters: 1. Fowler 2. Si Woo 3. Koepka 4. Henley 5. DeChambeau 6. Molinari 7. Webb 8. Rory 9. Harman 10. Kuchar8. Another interesting line, the prop for lowest tournament round at 64 & under +120....by all accounts its going to be a very tough week, so that seems like an unusually low score for someone to fire.9. The books are also projecting the cut line right now at +5 & a winning score of 276 which again seems pretty generous.10. Tiger Woods will win his first major in a decade this week, its a fact. Ok it's not a fact yet, but this is going to be the lowest owned he's been in quite some time thanks to the big boys sucking up a lot of the ownership, now is the time pounce! Pun intended! 

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Fore ($4), Millionaire ($20), or Pressure Putt ($444) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TourJunkies Avatar