The 2024 Travelers Championship Chalk 💣

Perfect weather on Thursday will give way to some thunderstorms and possible rain headed into the weekend. For those tracking the radar, there might be an advantage to going off early on Friday to potentially dodge the worst of the weather.

 For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Jordan Spieth -127 ($8200) vs. Justin Thomas -103 ($8500)

We start with best buds Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas who have been far from their best so far in 2024. Despite Spieth’s lower DFS price point, the sharp overseas oddsmakers have him as a heavy favorite in a 72-hole matchup against his pal JT.

The pair has over a dozen starts between them at TPC River Highlands with a mixed bag of results. Spieth famously won here with a hole-out in 2017, but he’s since failed to finish any higher than T42. JT put together a solid T9 in this event last year, but that and a T3 in 2016 are his only top-25 finishes in eight appearances at the Travelers.

Neither player is expected to be an overly popular play this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Thomas is projected around 10% ownership while Spieth is closer to 7%.

Brian Harman -134 ($8300) vs. Keegan Bradley +104 ($8700)

Sticking with the $8k range, the sharp oddsmakers have Brian Harman as a favorite in a head-to-head matchup with Keegan Bradley despite a $400 discount on the Open champion in DraftKings DFS pricing.

Keegs will have some confidence at TPC River Highlands as the defending champ, but it’s worth remembering that Harman began his amazing finish to the 2023 season with a T2 at this event before back-to-back top-12s in the leadup to his win at Royal Liverpool last summer.

The public appears to be tailing the bookies here as Harman is trending around 17% ownership compared to Bradley at closer to 13%.

Tom Hoge -141 ($7000) vs. Thomas Detry +111 ($7100)

Lastly, let’s take a look at some of the cheaper options where Tom Hoge is a heavy favorite over Thomas Detry even though the Belgian is slightly more expensive in DraftKings DFS.

Hoge has the clear course experience advantage with nine previous Travelers starts compared to Detry’s one — but neither player has particularly enjoyed their visits to TPC River Highlands. Despite Hoge’s plethora of appearances, he’s never finished better than T35 in this event. Detry also didn’t have a great debut here last year where he missed the cut after rounds of 70 and 68.

These two are neck-and-neck in terms of ownership according to our projections, but neither is being picked very often with both right at 8%

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Rory did his best to REALLY punish us on the Chalk Bomb last week. But a couple of yipped putts aside, it was not the best showing for the column as Rors proved a worthy pick at Pinehurst in DFS — even if he broke bettors’ hearts.

But unlike McIlroy, we are NOT taking a week off, but rather throwing ourselves straight into the Travelers in the hopes of bouncing back with a nice fade for this week’s Chalk Bomb.

The elevated purse means there’s no shortage of big names to avoid, even if the world’s No. 2 has decided to pass on TPC River Highlands.

As a reminder for any first-time readers, the Chalk Bomb is limited to popular picks in DFS — those with a projected ownership of 15% or higher according to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord. That leaves us with a total of nine players to choose from among the field of 70ish teeing it up this week.

To narrow it down, let’s start with the analysis by our friends at Bet the Number who have identified some key data points and indicators specific to this week’s venue that should give us an idea of who are the best (and worst) fits TPC River Highlands.

A longtime ‘birdiefest’, the Travelers could see some slightly tougher scoring conditions thanks to a recent renovation — but until we see otherwise, it’s safe to expect a winning score closer to -20 than to -10.

TPC River Highlands is famed for its variety of winners. Tight doglegs and plenty of ‘less-than-driver’ holes have seen bombers and plodders alike take home the Travelers trophy.

But regardless of distance, gaining strokes off the tee is a major factor on any setup, and that’s reason alone to fade this week’s Chalk Bomb. This player enters this week ranked 50th in the field in SG: Off the Tee over his last 36 rounds.

But the real killer has been his approach play — specifically with the short-to-mid irons which BTN has identified as being especially important this week. Over his last 36 rounds, the Chalk Bomb ranks almost DFL (70th out of 71) in this week’s field in SG: Approach from 120-180 yards. This shorter-than-average course will test these players early and often from that range, so this player will need to hope for some improvement with the shorter clubs if he is to contend.

That’s not to say this player has no chance this week, hell — one look at his record here would strongly suggest otherwise. There’s arguably been nobody better at the Travelers than this guy. In his last seven starts at TPC River Highlands, the Chalk Bomb has finished inside the top 10 every year but once — a missed cut in 2020

Not gonna lie, the stellar record scares me a bit, but the data is giving me confidence to fade him. Of the six data points that BTN has identified for this event, this player ranks inside the top 20 in just one: putting.

At 17% owned and with other $8k options like Russell Henley, Sahith Theegala, Corey Conners and Tony Finau, I’m willing to take a risk passing on one of my Georgia Bulldogs.

So for the first time this year, Brian Harman… You are the Chalk Bomb!

I think new cartoon characters these days are lazily drawn and created. Absolutely no imagination and they have boring personalities. We need Bugs Bunny back.

Apparently flip flops are frowned upon in the airport (according to DB). I wholeheartedly disagree with this sentiment.

Espresso Martinis are the most contagious cocktail order I’ve ever seen. Once one person orders one at the table it’s almost guaranteed that someone else in the group will. I would put White Russians in this category also.

Why do they serve macaroni and cheese to kids at restaurants in literally the hottest serving dish they can possibly put it in.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!