This Week's Tour Stop Travelers Championship @River Highlands 

The End of the Short Course Run

It's funny that we started this whole reschedule thing to line up with what are basically 3 of the shortest courses that these guys play on a yearly basis. While Harbour Town and Colonial are very similar courses in what strengths are need to play well, TPC River Highlands actually has a fairly unique skill set as compared to the last 2 events. As you'll see below, Total Driving is the name of the game this week, but I want to take a moment to remind everyone what exactly that means. Total Driving is the combination of BOTH length and accuracy, ideally, you have both, but if your really good at one & not so great at the other you can still be considered a 'good' total driver of the golf ball. Take our friend Joel Dahman, for the last calendar year he's averaged about 293 yards off the tee, which believe it or not is slightly below the tour average so he's technically 'short'. But because he hits such a high number of fairways (67%) he's actually one of the better total drivers in the field. If you check his strokes gained page, you'll see that he's gained strokes off the tee in 11 straight events, and over the last 50 rounds would rank 23rd in the field for said category. I think people generally make the mistake of assuming that you have to be a bomber to be a good total driver, and that's simply not the case. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. So like we discussed above, accuracy off the tee and approach play are the two most predictive metrics at River Highlands. Because it's such a short course, and generally has longer rough, this would be another 'less than driver' course and is reflected in the statistics. At the Travelers, the field has historically hit the fairways at a 66.7% clip which is over a 10% increase from a normal tour stop. Last week we looked at guys that hit the ball well at Colonial but just didn't have good putting weeks and it worked out pretty nicely (DeChambeau, JT, Ancer, Dahmen, Hovland, Glover, Duncan all made the list & finished at least T-28) so we'll look at that again since we change putting surfaces from bermuda to poa/bent.  

Leh Go!

List of players from last week that gained less than 1 stroke putting for the week but finished in the top 21:

2. Ancer (lost strokes)T-5. Garcia (lost strokes)T-5. Niemann (lost strokes)T-8. DeChambeau T-8. PalmerT-14. Rose (lost strokes)T-17. Garnett (lost strokes)T-17. DJ (lost strokes)T-21. Redman (lost strokes)T-21. Hovland (lost strokes)T-21. Conners (lost strokes)

MATCHUP 1

Ancer vs. Casey

Ancer -145 vs. Casey +125

The ole classic debate of course history vs recent form. Last week Honest Abe had one of the most impressive ball striking weeks in recent memory hitting OVER 90% of his greens in reg, & hit all 18 during his Sunday round. He gained an unreal 11.8 strokes on approach shots, which is more than DOUBLE his next best output. He unfortunately lost strokes putting and around the green which cost him the tartan jacket. Ancer has fairly good history here with an 8th place last year, and even though he finished 56th in 16', he actually hit the exact same number of greens as he did in 19'. If Bubba Watson wasn't in the field, Paul Casey would have the course history that everyone was drooling over with 4 top 5's in his last 5 attempts at River Highlands. His WORST year here, he hit almost 70% of his greens in reg, and has even gained strokes putting in 4 of those 5 years. I actually didn't know this until I looked, but Paul Casey for his career has gained strokes putting on bent grass, and if you listened to the pod, you know that the caddies have been telling us that even though they are technically poa greens, they putt more like bent. The DFS value is certainly there for Ancer, but getting Casey at +125 on a course he's dominated on sure looks juicy. 

MATCHUP 2

DJ vs. Bubba

DJ -160 vs. Bubba +133

Probably the most surprising line that I found this week, so lets take a closer look. Bubba got off to a surprisingly strong start in 2020, & kept it rolling with a 7th at Colonial & 52nd at Harbour Town. When you go to look at his stats, you'll see that almost half the strokes he gained at Colonial were putting, which isn't usually his strong suit. He's been fine tee to green gaining at least 1.6 strokes off the tee & on approach these last 2 weeks, but when you go back & look at the events he's won (& the times he's won at River Highland) he's generally gained a minimum of 4 strokes off the tee, & 3.5 strokes on approach, neither of which he's done since the Waste Management. Even with losing 4.3 strokes putting at the Genesis, since the start of the year, this is actually his hottest run of putting in his entire career. DJ is almost the exact opposite case...last week he looked like the DJ of old finishing 2nd in the field in strokes gained off the tee (which was actually his highest total in over a year). BUT, DJ has lost strokes putting in 11 of his last 13 events, which has been a major cause of his recent struggles. For his career DJ actually gains strokes on every surface, and in his ancient course history has done the same here. I think he has some sneaky upside if he can just break even with the putter this week, & it looks like the books are pricing in some mean reversion for Bubba. 

MATCHUP 3

Bryson vs. JT 

Bryson -115 vs. JT -105

What can you say about DB's favorite golfer, Bryson 'Meat' DeChambeau that hasn't already been said the last 2 weeks? It's been ridiculously impressive to watch him hit the kind of the bombs that Phil only dreams about. Since the start of 2020, the LEAST amount of strokes Bryson has gained off the tee is 3.8...it's really easy to be good at golf when you can bank on gaining at least 3.8 strokes on the field before you ever hit a ball. The part that no one is talking about though is that he's (generally) taking advantage of his huge drives with his iron play as well. He's gained 4.8 & 5.9 strokes on approach shots the last 2 weeks, good for 8th best in the field both weeks. If Bryson could either not lose strokes around the greens (has done so in 3 straight events) OR gain MORE THAN 1 stroke putting (also done that 3 straight events) than he probably would have won the API, Charles Schwab, and RBC. He also happens to have sneaky good history here with back to back top 10's, and hit at least 74% of his greens in reg during the last 2 years. So as much as I would love to present the fade case to you (he'll almost certainly be the highest owned), I just can not do it. JT's edge, as you might imagine comes in the short game, where he, unlike Bryson, has gained strokes both around the green and putting in 3 straight events. JT surprisingly doesn't have great history at River Highlands given his skill-set (has actually been below field average in GIR's hit 4 out of 6 years). 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.

Welp, we had slight sweat on Sunday along with fifty-leven other people with 25 names in contention at Hilton Head, but we don't bet those 28/1 sissy bets around these parts. Alright...onward...I do see a slight edge with First Round Leader bets in the AM wave as conditions will be softer and the wind appears to pick up in the afternoon. During his presser this week, Spieth mentioned this place is much easier to attack in the mornings. So, I'm going to sprinkle in some FRLs in addition to the outrights.

Through 20 Weeks: Spent $1000 / Won $1600 / Up 60 unitsOutright WinnerFinau (50/1)_$5, Scheffler (75/1)_$10, Kokrak (100/1)_$5, Homa (125/1)_$5,Varner III (150/1)_$5First Round LeaderRodgers (90/1)_$5, Munoz (100/1)_$5, Homa (100/1)_$5, Higgs (125/1)_$5

All of the FRL bets are AM times. They're all guys that have shown solid form in the first 2 weeks coming back. They all hit the ball far and their birdie rates are above average. For the outright stable of studs, I went with all bombers that will take advantage of the short Par 4's and gettable Par 5's. Call my Finau play a pure gut decision this week. Kokrak and HV3 have grown on me since Monday. They weren't even on my radar for the podcast, but as I've dug deeper, I like the win equity they each have at triple digit prices. Homa is one of my favorite plays as his "stock" has dropped since he was a 50/1 bet pre covid. He's a PGA Tour winner on a course where the field is strong. And, he clearly was rusty at Colonial as he returned last week playing markedly better in key Strokes Gained categories. And now to address my full unit of love to Scheffler...I love his power and length here. He finished T55 at Colonial. Gained strokes ball striking as usual, lost strokes putting (as usual), but he lost over 3 strokes chipping. On average in his rookie season, he's usually between +.5 or -.5 in SG: ATG. It was a rusty week chipping for him. I don't see him doing a lot of chipping this week having so many short wedge shots into the greens. The greens aren't super small and easy to hit. One more fun fact...Bet365 has him at 75/1, yet datagolf.com projects his true odds based on their model to be 47/1. 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a massive underdog in his head to head matchup

• He's $1400 more expensive than last week and $1600 more expensive than 2 events ago

• In his last 7 events, he's gained more strokes putting than any other 7 event stretch in his career

• Despite good course history, he has just as many poor to middling results as good results

• Bent grass is his worst putting surface

• He loses strokes against his baseline on par 70's

• He loses total strokes against his baseline on short courses

• He's 100th in the field in the 2 main approach yardage buckets

• He's 47th in the field in par 4 scoring

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 120th in the field in Good Drives Gained

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 89th in the field in birdies gained

• Despite playing well the last 2 weeks, he's only 59th in the field in GIR's gained the last 8 rounds

At 14.1% calculated ownership (9th highest), Bubba Watson, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I’m really good at picking up things with my feet. They are quite coordinated. Outside of something really heavy or like a basketball I can pretty much pick up anything.

So after seeing the non-raked bunker episode on 18 last week when Webb finished up his win at the Heritage it got me thinking. My kids are doing some junior golf camps this summer and the pros pretty much teach them at a young age everything from golf etiquette, chipping and putting, hitting irons and drivers, etc. but one thing I know I was never taught and neither are my kids is how to properly rake a bunker. We need this issue addressed and added to the curriculum. It’s a problem. That being said I guess right now it doesn’t matter because there are no rakes on golf courses anyway. So I guess carry on.

What is it about taking showers that produce good ideas and creative synapses to fire sometimes? I mean, is it because you’re naked and feeling clean? Is it the steady running of water? The heat? It’s gotta be something but I have no clue.

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Travelers Championship and yet again another stacked field (please lord no more withdrawals). Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Travelers:

1. Reavie 2. JT 3. Day 4. Cantlay 5. Casey 6. Lee 7. Ancer 8. Taylor 9. Moore 10. Niemann

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at River Highlands (min 8 rounds): 

1. Casey 2. Reavie 3. Moore 4. Garcia 5. Henry 6. Steele 7. Snedeker 8. Watson 9. McIIroy 10. Armour

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on poa/bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Reed 2. Simpson 3. Wallace 4. Rose 5. DeChambeau 6. Taylor 7. Cantlay 8. Horschel 9. Im 10. McIIroy

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200 yards & under, fast greens, and long rough, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Spieth 2. Furyk 3. Casey 4. Day 5. ZJ 6. Reavie 7. Rodgers 8. DJ 9. Kisner 10. Cink

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses w/ long rough, easy to average fairways, and short courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Watson 2. Reavie 3. Casey 4. McIIroy 5. Moore 6. Hovland 7. Stanley 8. Grillo 9. JT 10. Garcia

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on Pete Dye courses:

 1. McIIroy 2. DJ 3. Casey 4. Grillo 5. Day 6. Rose 7. Cantlay 8. Kokrak 9. Rahm 10. Knox

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at River Highlands, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Reed 2. JT 3. Rahm 4. McIIroy 5. Simpson 6. Schauffele 7. Dahmen 8. Finau 9. Im 10. Higgs

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Reavie 2. Leishman 3. Niemann 4. Grillo 5. Hoge 6. Kokrak 7. Duncan 8. Im 9. Simpson 10. Hovland

9. 

If I make another custom model that is 50% GIR hit & 50% total driving (the 2 most important things this week) from the last calendar year, your top 10 is:

1. Rahm 2. Casey 3. McIIroy 4. Conners 5. Scheffler 6. Kokrak 7. Hovland 8. NeSmith 9. Morikawa 10. Koepka

10.

Top 10 cheapest guys on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Oosthuizen 2. Moore 3. Palmer 4. Horschel 5. Henley 6. Rodgers 7. Conners 8. Na 9. Grace 10. Lowry