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No real weather / wave advantage to speak of for the first 2 rounds this week. Therefore, I'm not wasting my time with pictures above from Windfinder. The wind is mild both days. Friday could get some rain, but it's not enough to favor a wave.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Color me shocked at this line! I'm a Wise guy as much as anyone, but this is quite the gap coming out of a very sharp, market making book considering Riley's recent play. The Riley side of this line has received some action as the line has shortened slightly since it opened. And in another sharp book, the line movement resembles the Great American Screen Machine at Six Flags over Atlanta...no loops or corkscrews, but a bunch of ups and downs. However, I'm still shocked to see Wise such a favorite.

In DFS, I suspect Riley will be the more popular, but it won't be my much. Both men should come in around the 13-17% range. I typically like Wise more in an event where scrambling matters a lot since he's got really damn good touch around the greens, and Travelers ain't that. 

Riley's played a lot of golf lately, but he's young and durable. He's gotta be hungry for that first victory after tasting it at the Valspar before Burns kicked him in the pecker hole in the 1st playoff hole. 

I think if I were betting this matchup, I'd take the + money Riley side, but it certainly made me question my strong Riley stance in DFS if the books are that bullish on Wise in comparison.

Keegan -137 vs. Spieth +107

I've seen Spieth projected anywhere from 14 to 19% in DFS circles, with Keegan coming in around 14% across the board. The sharp books really don't like Spieth across the board in his H2H lines, and that surprises me somewhat. He's a + money dog to Burns, Xander, Keegan and even NIEMANN across the sharper books.

This line does a couple of things to me...first, it confirms my love for Keegan. I'm pretty close to all in on him, and I'm not scared to say it. Second, it makes me wonder if Spieth comes in lower owned than we think. I don't hate Spieth here at all. He's a past champion. He's been hitting it very well for most of 2022 both off the tee and on approach. The putter has been lackluster for sure, but he's still had weeks where it surged (Memorial). In 4 attempts at TPC River Highlands, he's gained over 3 strokes on the putting surfaces, and we know he loves bent grass.

I like both of these players this week both in DFS and betting. In fact, they're the first 2 names on my betting card. I guess it's me VS the super sharp, market making H2H books with Jordo this week...

Finau -131 vs. Mito +110

Pat Mayo and I did his live chat today on YouTube, and we talked about how Finau could end up being a decent high end pivot at around 12% projected ownership as of now. Mito saves you $800, so these 2 aren't necessarily in the same price range, but Finau is a large favorite across the books against Mito, and Mito is projected around 17 or 18% and in the top 5 to 7 for highest owned players.

Finau missed the cut by 2 shots last week in large part due to a bad round off the tee. He was around 21% last week. Mito trunk slammed as well, but both players are in solid form if you zoom out. Now, this is Mito's first time at The Travelers, while Finau has missed 3 straight cuts here, but he had 3 top 25s here in his first 3 attempts.

Finau is hitting it well and playing quite well after somewhat of a slump early in this season. He's got 2 runner ups and a 4th in his last 6 starts.

He's a heavy favorite against Fleetwood (as he should be) and a mixed bag against Niemann in terms of his other H2H lines. One book has him a + money dog to Niemann, and another has them as a coin flip. I could certainly see Finau getting somewhat overlooked in GPPs coming off the 21% MC at the USO and 3 straight MC's at The Traveler's, but I think I'm willing to buy while others sell given the form over the last couple of months.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

I think this is the week to bail on Rory. I hate to say it because he's hitting it so damn well, but he's got to be physically, mentally and emotionally wiped given the golf, mandatory player meetings and LIV stuff he's been dancing around. He mentioned in his presser today, "But four weeks in a row for me is pretty rare these days. I haven't played four in a row for a while and you start to remember why." In the last couple of years (excluding COVID year), he's taken damn near a month off after the USO and hasn't played here since 2018 (not counting COVID summer). He's not playing again until The Open in a few weeks, and you gotta imagine he's anxious to rest up and get adjusted overseas. Aside from that angle, I just prefer going up to Scheffler if I'm paying up top in DFS. Scheffler is projected to be around 5% lower owned than Rory, and he's playing just as well. What are you really giving up by playing Scheffler over Rory at this point? Plus, the books don't seem to mind it...Scheffler is a -130 favorite in one market making book over Rory.Obviously, a Rory fade is always scary because he's so damn good. And he's certainly clicking right now. However, I think giving the 3 weeks he's had...I'll bail early and take the risk. At his price, and around 20% ownership...anything outside of the top 7 to 10 DK points scorers is a victory. At +20% (top 3 highest) projected ownership, Rory Mcllroy,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Why does McDonald's hate ice so much? Do they really need to conserve it the way they do? Is there an ice shortage I don't know about? It just doesn't make sense that they can't put more than 4 cubes in a large Coke. Why do women need 18 different trinkets and shit hanging from their key chains? It's ridiculous. I saw this and it made me think of DB's affection with the movie...It seems like all comedians can be connected by 3 degrees to Pootie Tang. If you haven't been to a Buc-ee's gas station have you truly lived? I feel like with the amount of birds out there in the world, we take for granted that we never actually get hit by them. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Travelers Championship this week at TPC River Highlands. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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