Tour Championship Chalk 💣

This Week's Tour Stop Tour Championship @ East Lake

Say it out loud: "I'm a degenerate."

If you're reading this, you sir...are a degenerate. Just accept it. Own it. Wear it proudly. And, thank you for your loyalty. DB here. Me and Pat will be contributing 100% of the content for this email until January when our boy Ben is back in action. We'll continue delivering this weekly email until then for every week we've got some action! While this week is weird with the format, there is a real edge to be had in a couple weeks once we start the new season. We'll be delivering "DB's Big Balls Betting Card" exclusively in this email and no longer on Twitter and IG. If you've not followed along with that, we've had a tremendous year and some real sweats on some big numbers. Throw $5 on it if that's what you got. It's worth it. We'll also have Pat's "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" writeup exclusively in this email. We'll share some guys we've come onto late in the week that we didn't mention on the podcast. Finally, we'll bring some laughs here with "Pontificate with Pat", where Pat will just share some random, wild ass thoughts he's had throughout the week. And, we'll share our favorite Instagram post of the week. We've been FLAMES on IG lately.In terms of betting or playing DFS this week...LET's JUST NOT. I'm playing 1 lineup on DraftKings this week because I'm in the top 5 of a big contest and I have to. If not for that...I'm not touching it. In fact, I'll give you 4 guys in that lineup just for fun: KOKRAK, IM, REED, CANTLAY. I'm betting one player on MyBookie this week to win. Patrick Reed at 16/1. He's 4 shots back. Playing great. Loves to be the chaser. Has the short game chops for East Lake. I played East Lake in April this year. It's brutal around the greens.

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"Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Jason Kokrak - $5,300 – Ok so technically he was mentioned on the show but since we didn’t really give picks due to the amazing pod with Joel, Geno, and Aaron, I’m throwing him out there as a great option this week for tournaments. Joel and Geno worth both big fans of Kokrak this week despite that he’s going to be starting 10 shots back from Justin Thomas. Jason makes a ton of birdies (7th in Birdie or Better Percentage) and checks the box in ball striking, Strokes Gained off the Tee, and Strokes Gained Approach. You just never know what can happen this week and with his form this year and the fact that he’s probably just happy to be here. I think he’ll come out aggressive with guns blazing and nothing to lose.

Sungjae Im - $5900 – The strokes bled grinding leader on tour this year by a wide margin is another guy that we can see coming out firing at pins and playing super aggressive in order to make up some ground on the leaders. Sungjae is another fantastic ball striker who despite a little hiccup early in the summer has played quite well lately with a T6 at the Wyndham and a T11 finish last week at the BMW. If he can just get on a roll early which he tends to do I think he will drop some birdies and maybe even a few eagles as well on the par 5’s considering Sungjae is number one in the field in Eagles Gained. One more side note also, Geno tweeted out a couple weeks ago that he was the most impressive player he’s ever seen. That’s a strong endorsement if you ask me!

Patrick Reed - $10,200 – Reed has obviously been playing very well lately with a win at the Wyndham and 5 straight finishes no worse that T22 but this is also a perfect course for him and he’s got a real shot at winning the tournament being just 4 shots back of JT. He’s checking all the boxes but the real reason to play him is that as of this writing Reed is projected to be one of the lowest owned players at about 9% (CH3 has the lowest projected ownership at 8% for reference). That’s really all you need to know when it comes to playing Patrick this week in tournament lineups where ownership leverage is an absolute must in a 30 man field.

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"Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

I just started using night mode on twitter a couple weeks ago and I hate it. Probably going back to day mode all the time.
I think you should get a red check mark on twitter if you’re a troll. But you have to be a really good one. We can’t just be handing out red check marks left and right.
If I get to a microwave and the timer is not at zero and there are seconds remaining on it I’m immediately triggered. I mean why would someone waste seconds like that?
Why do teachers still assign homework? I think it’s just to piss off parents because they’ve had to deal with our kids all day. When it really comes down to it they could just finish that shit while they’re at school.

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Tour Championship:

1. Matsuyama 2. Rose 3. McIIroy 4. JT 5. DJ 6. Casey 7. Fowler 8. Rahm 9. Fleetwood 10. Schauffele

Historical

GIR Leaders at East Lake:

1. Rham 2. Stenson 3. Scott 4. DJ 5. Cantlay 6. Rose 7. Casey 8. McIIroy 9. Schauffele 10. JT

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Simpson 2. CH3 3. Leishman 4. Fowler 5. DeChambeau 6. Snedeker 7. Koepka 8. Kuchar 9. Rose 10. DJ

If I make a custom model w/ par 70 courses, bermuda greens, and difficult to hit fairways...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. CH3 3. Reavie 4. Rose 5. JT 6. McIIroy 7. Simpson 8. Kuchar 9. Koepka 10. Im

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairway courses that are par 70's your top 10 are:

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Reavie 4. Rose 5. JT 6. CH3 7. Casey 8. Simpson 9. Koepka 10. Scott

GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.Rahm 2. Casey 3. Conners 4. Kisner 5. Finau 6. Oosthuizen 7. Scott 8. JT 9. Ancer 10. Reed

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at East Lake, so your top 10 in par 4 scoring average are:

1. Simpson 2. DJ 3. Koepka 4. Rahm 5. Rose 6. McIIroy 7. JT 8. Cantlay 9. Fowler 10. Reed

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Reavie 2. Matsuyama 3. Woodland 4. Simpson 5. Scott 6. Kokrak 7. Casey 8. Cantlay 9. Kisner 10. Glover

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Rose 2. Oost 3. JT 4. Simpson 5. Casey 6. Scott 7. Kisner 8. Snedeker 9. Conners 10. Glover

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

1. Rose 2. DeChambeau 3. CH3 4. DJ 5. Reavie 6. Oost 7. Glover 8. Kokrak 9. Kisner 10. Ancer

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week

This one crushed on IG right after JT took that course record from Hideki last week at Medinah. All you 90s kids will know bout that Jesse Spano reference.

- @Tour_Junkies on IG

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