TOC Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

 This Week's Tour Stop The TOC at Kapalua 

Welcome Back!

2019 is upon us and team TJ couldn't be more excited that golf, DFS golf, and the days getting longer are slowly coming back. We've made a ton of improvements to the chalk bomb over the off season to improve the look and readability that I think everyone will like. With the TOC basically being the equivalent of a practice round for DFS purposes I figured we'd go over what the Chalk Bomb is/is not and how to best use it for a profitable season. 

When i first agreed to start doing the chalk bomb I made one thing abundantly clear to Pat & David…I had zero interest in doing a ‘picks’ article or some other piece of content that you can find in 20 other places. I wanted to do something different, something unique, and something that helped people make their OWN decisions and empower them to a better process. 

As you know golf is the most volatile sport in all of DFS. It’s from that volatility that we can profit if a good process leads us to fade the higher owned guys that are primed to fail. In DFS golf, the devil is in the details, and a LOT of analysis in the industry is fairly surface level, 32,000 feet views. Those are the exact errors that we try and capitalize on. We have a lot of new readers this year so here is quick run down of what to expect every week and how to best use the infomation.What the chalk bomb is:

• The chalk bomb section of the email is a balance of the highest owned (projected) golfer that I feel has the highest probability to fail. Sometimes this player is 15% owned, sometimes 50%. I always try to let the data lead me where it wants to take me 

• When I say ‘fail’ that can mean several things. Take for example Dustin Johnson last year at Riviera. He was over 40% owned across most contest, was the most expensive player in the field, and was the chalk bomb. He finished in 17th place. Now some would say thats far from a bad result, but in reality thats a great result for being the chalk bomb. Anyone that owned DJ that week with a 17th place finish had absolutely no shot at winning any tournament, which is our only focus here.

• It's best to visualize the chalk bomb as a sliding scale....the more expensive/higher owned a player is, say 10k+ and 20% owned, the less they have to do to 'fail'...anything outside a top 10-15 finish is successful. The lower the ownership and cheaper the player is, say for example $7500 and only 10% owned...they pretty much need to miss the cut

• a tool that helps you make those coin flip decisions on popular players

• A different view on the ‘same’ information

• Occasional game theory

• FREE

What the chalk bomb is not: 

• A picks article

• Always right, hell there was one week where the chalk bomb won the tournament last year

• All encompassing...I'm just trying to hit on the guys that I think are the most important to make a decision on each week

• Cost money....I literally just do this because I love golf and love playing DFS

• Perfect English/sentence structure/grammar, I barley passed all my English/Lit classes in college, it is admittedly not a strength of mine, but believe it or not the Chalk Bomb generally takes up most of my Wednesdays every week. I don't put one single sentence in this email that isn't backed by some statistic/fact, and that is where my focus lies....delivering extremely well researched info! If your a grammar nazi, A. get a life B. you'll probably want to subscribe to another email with perfect grammar but shit info

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Tway vs. Merritt 

So in full disclosure I bet this one as soon as I started doing research for the week on Monday. This line opened at Tway -120....Kevin is one of the major up and comers on tour and has the complete game to join the games elite, the fact that he was only -120 against Troy Merritt who is only here because he won an alt field event (which for him was even good) is just crazy. For DFS purposes, Tway is only $200 more than Merritt and the head to head line has now moved to -160 for Tway.

MATCHUP 2

Piercy vs. Kizzire

I generally try to not consume any DFS golf material before I do the chalk bomb so as to keep all my research/ideas my own, but with the DFS community having a month to prepare/talk about the TOC it's been pretty hard to ignore. Anyways I've heard a lot of buzz around Kizzire mainly because he won an exhibition event (& not even a solo exhibition event), well, this is just your friendly reminder that he's still an underdog to Scott Piercy head to head. Recent form is always tough this time of year, but Piercy ended the wraparound season w/ 3 straight top 10's....by far his best golf of 2018.

MATCHUP 3

Day vs. Rory

I lived on the edge last year fading both of these guys for the vast majority of the season last year. Day was such an interesting case last year because he was his usual dominate self on the putting surface, still hit it a mile, but his approach game just never really clicked. Even in both of his wins last year he lost strokes on approach, and never really did turn it around. Rory was kind of similar last year in that he was his usual dominate self off the tee all year, but was extremely inconsistent both around the greens and putting. He actually had a better 2nd half then I remember, finished 12th or better in 10 of 13 starts down the stretch and was right there in 2 of the majors. For this week though Day is the head to head fav despite being $600 cheaper than Rory, and I agree with the price. The big fairways here at Kapalua will really benefit Day, and the metric that backtested the best this week was.....putting! 

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Stats about our boy this week:

• In his last official outing, he finished 36th, his worst finish since missing the cut at the British Open

• If you count the Hero as an official outing, he also lost strokes to the field

• His greatest strength is approach play, which is less important at this event than at your 'tour average' stop

• He's played this event 3 times, twice losing strokes to the field overall

• Last year at this event he lost strokes in every category except off the tee

• His strokes gained on the field drops by over 30% in very windy conditions (he's been terrible at the British Open's as well)...winds are projected to be 20 mph+ for 3 of the 4 days

• These are generally some of the slowest greens on tour, and our guy loses strokes against his baseline on slow greens

Our friends over at FanShareSports.com have our guy projected at 28% this week....Justin Thomas, you're the Chalk Bomb!

Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

 1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years TOC: 

1. DJ 2. Rahm 3. Leishman 4. Billy Ho 5. JT (gained 0.12 strokes)....everyone else either didn't play last year or lost strokes to the field

2. 

I made a custom model that is 33% strength of field, 66% GIR, here is the top 10:

1. DJ 2. Woodland 3. Molinari 4. Casey 5. Keegan 6. Rahm 7. Rory 8. Billy Ho 9. JT 10. Bryson

3. I made a different custom model that focuses on ONLY year long stats since recent form doesn't really exist:

1. DJ 2. Koepka 3. Rory 4. JT 5. Casey 6. Leishman 7. Champ 8. Rahm 9. Day 10. Molinari

4. 

Strokes gained putting leaders on Bermuda the last 50 rounds:

1. Phil 2. Day 3. Webb 4. Reed 5. Leishman 6. Snedeker 7. Champ 8. Kuchar 9. Landry 10. Wise

5.

Your top 10 in GIR's hit at Kapalua:

 *small sample sizes apply 1. Keegan 2. Day 3. Webb 4. Woodland 5. Billy Ho 6. DJ 7. Sneds 8. Reed 9. Bubba 10. Merritt

6. Top 10 in strokes gained approach the last 12 rounds: 

1. DJ 2. Billy Ho 3. Rory 4. Bryson 5. Casey 6. X 7. Putnam 8. Webb 9. Woodland 10. JT

7.

Bottom 10 in TOTAL strokes gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Kim 2. Michelson 3. Watson 4. Na 5. Snedeker 6. Kizzire 7. Landry 8. Reed 9. Kodaira 10. Ted Potter

8.

According to DataGolf,

putting and strokes gained off the tee are more important this week, and approach/arround the green are less important than a normal PGA tour event

9. 

Since putting is more important this week, your bottom 10 putters in the field are:

1. Woodland 2. Piercy 3. Champ 4. Billy Ho 5. Kizzire 6. CH3 7. Keegan 8. Garnett 9. Putnam 10. Kodaira

10.

Guys that made equipment changes that could impact their play:

1.Na (Callaway) 2. Casey was seen using Honma irons in a practice round this week 3. Woodland (Wilson) 4. Sneds (dont know) 5. Merritt (Titleist) 6. Molinari (Callaway) 

WIN A

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How do I win the Driver? 

Step 1 - Click Here to download the Avatar of your choice.

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"I'm gonna start the year being an asshole. Just for a few days, because it can only get better from there. That means play Patrick Reed in all your lineups"