This Week's Tour Stop Tournament of Champions @ Kapalua 

New Day Fresh Start

Back in the day when I was trading full time I used to listen to what was happening in the S&P pit's in Chicago via radio (sadly they don't exist anymore but it used to be the ONLY way you could get your orders filled before electronic trading). I would listen for several reasons, mainly to stay on top of breaking news (traders are generally the 1st to know everything that goes on in the world, even before the President, because we have to). And secondly to keep an ear on what the big boys were doing. When a Golden Sachs trader would come in & trade 500 lots on one trade (nominal value of $810,250 PER contract or $405 million total), that was generally a good clue where the market was heading that day. Here is a great clip from the Flash Crash in 2010, I swear this guy could make JB Holmes pre-shot routine sound exciting (start are the 2min mark):https://vimeo.com/11570780Anyways the guy that called the action every day in the pit would always remind us in the morning before the open that no matter how good or bad the previous day was, today was a new day & a fresh start. I always appreciated that gentle reminder to either A. Stay humble after your big wins, or B. Today was a new opportunity to be better than you were yesterday.With golf DFS & betting you better have a process you believe in. You can go for several weeks, sometimes months without a solid win (for GPP purposes, & betting on straight winners). And that's where the chalk bomb is here to help you. This is a process-based piece of content, with its sole purpose to help you make better decisions. We have lots of new readers at the start of every season so here is a quick recap on what the chalk bomb is/is not and it can best help you throughout the season.  What the chalk bomb is: The chalk bomb section of the email is a balance of the highest owned (projected) golfer that I feel has the highest probability to fail. Sometimes this player is 15% owned, sometimes 50%. I always try to let the data lead me where it wants to take me  When I say ‘fail’ that can mean several things. Take for example Dustin Johnson 2 years ago at Riviera. He was over 45% owned across most contests, was the most expensive player in the field, and was the chalk bomb. He finished in 17th place. Now some would say that's far from a bad result but in reality, that's a great result for being the chalk bomb. Anyone that owned DJ that week with a 17th place finish had absolutely no shot at winning any tournament, which is our main focus here. It's best to visualize the chalk bomb as a sliding scale....the more expensive/higher owned a player is, say 10k+ and 20% owned, the less they have to do to 'fail'...anything outside a top 10-15 finish is successful. The lower the ownership and cheaper the player is, say for example $7500 and only 10% owned...they pretty much need to miss the cut a tool that helps you make those coin-flip decisions on popular players A different view on the ‘same’ information Occasional game theory The 10 facts are the highest concentration of info on the market! I use them extensively in my own process & reference them constantly while I build lineups. I always look for names that appear several times that I didn't expect to see and look for big names that don't make the list at all FREEWhat the chalk bomb is not:  A picks article Always right. This is high risk, high reward every.single.week. The chalk bomb will invariably have good weeks All encompassing...I'm just trying to hit on the guys that I think are the most important to make a decision on each week Cost money....I literally just do this because I love golf and love playing DFS Perfect English/sentence structure/grammar, I barley passed all my English/Lit classes in college, it is admittedly not a strength of mine but believe it or not, the Chalk Bomb generally takes up most of my Wednesdays every week. I don't put one sentence in this email that isn't backed by some statistic/fact, and that is where my focus lies....delivering extremely well-researched info! If your a grammar nazi, A. get a life B. you'll probably want to subscribe to another email with perfect grammar but shit info

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.The weather for Mayor Mark Rolfing's island of Maui, HI likely looks a helluva lot better than wherever you are this week. However, Friday through Sunday will for sure be windy and gusty. Rain doesn't look to be much of a factor, although we may get a few showers here and there. The wind being a trade wind does provide some extra help on most holes for the shorter hitters off the tee, but still means hitting your ball "on the titties" is mission critical from the fairway as you approach these greens. So...load up on ball strikers!

Through 9 Weeks: Spent $450 / Won $1250 / Up 80 unitsOutright WinnerKuchar (40/1)_$15, Kisner (55/1)_$15, Frittelli (66/1)_$5, Palmer (90/1)_$10, Griffin (125/1)_$5 

Obviously, there's no edge with First Round Leaders today, so I'm going all in on some outrights! And...I'm not a TWAT-DONKEY, so 40/1 is as short as we get in this 34 man, no cut, birdie fest, vacationing shit show! The law firm of Kuch & Kiz lead off the ticket each with a unit and a half. They're the only 2 with any level of experience to speak of, and both can get hot with the flatstick. Frittelli's just kind of a kick in here because based on our recent interview with him, we know a few things for sure...1. He's cheap AF! This mofo should be licking his chops knowing he's got a chance to really bring home some quan in this event while he's probably sleeping in his car. 2, he's accurate and pretty sharp with the irons when he's feelin it! We discussed Palmer on the podcast has to be just pinching himself that he's even here after winning a team event with Rahm, he's a bomber off the tee, and needs a big event to get his year started. Griffin is already a PGA Tour winner that crushes it off the tee, and the number is too long for his ability.

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 4 straight events

• He's lost total strokes putting his last 5 events (usually a good putter)

• He's lost total strokes to the field in 7 of his last 8 events

• He gains the least amount of strokes against the field on easy courses

• He's 29th out of 34 in proximity for approach shots over 200 yards

• He's 17th in strokes gained on par 5's

• He's 31st in opps gained the last 12 rounds

• He's 29th in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds

Matt BOOOOOOOchar your the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

December 26th and January 2nd should be federal holidays. Especially when Christmas and New Year’s Day fall on the middle of the week. And while we’re at it, the Monday following the Super Bowl should also be a federal holiday. If any of these politicians running for President in 2020 wants to put that in there campaign promises they definitely have my vote. So we have house cleaning services, yard service, and hell we even have pet sitters that will come to your house, but why don’t we have garage cleaning and organization services. Probably because no one in their right mind ever wants to do that. But I would pay a definite premium for it that’s for sure.Not a fan of odd numbers. Thank the lord it’s 2020. Let’s all have a Great Fantastic year folks and may all your screens be green! That’s all I got for this week. Good luck with your lineups in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Bome.

1. 

Strokes gained total leaders last 50 rounds:

1. Cantlay 2. JT 3. Rahm 4. Reed 5. Niemann 6. Schauffele 7. Casey 8. Morikawa 9. DJ 10. Munoz

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders last 52 weeks: 

1. Conners 2. Morikawa 3. Casey 4. JT 5. Frittelli 6. Woodland 7. Rahm 8. Griffin 9. Cantlay 10. Palmer

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

 1. McDowell 2. Todd 3. Fowler 4. Lashley 5. Kuchar 6. Poston 7. DJ 8. Munoz 9. Kisner 10. Reavie

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ course lengths of 7200-7400 yards, easy scoring, and easy to hit fairways..your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 12 rounds):

1. DJ 2. Niemann 3. Woodland 4. Conners 5. JT 6. Casey 7. Reed 8. Holmes 9. Rahm 10. Na

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy to hit fairways and easy scoring your top 10 are:

1. Niemann 2. DJ 3. Woodland 4. Conners 5. Reavie 6. Rahm 7. Cantlay 8. Mitchell 9. JT 10. Duncan

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Rahm 2. Todd 3. Conners 4. Duncan 5. Cantlay 6. Casey 7. Reed 8. Woodland 9. Schauffele 10. Palmer

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Kapalua, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. JT 2. Cantlay 3. Lashley 4. Casey 5. Schauffele 6. Munoz 7. Niemann 8. Reed 9. Rahm 10. DJ

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 100-125 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Reavie 2. Casey 3. Woodland 4. Kisner 5. Homa 6. Schauffele 7. Poston 8. Fowler 9. Palmer 10. Lashley

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Cantlay 2. Reavie 3. Niemann 4. Wolff 5. Champ 6. Conners 7. Holmes 8. JT 9. Palmer 10. Griffin 

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Reed 2. Morikawa 3. Kuchar 4. Champ 5. Niemann 6. Cantlay 7. DJ 8. Casey 9. Kisner 10. Woodland

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG